Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction 7/12/2024

The Atlanta Braves (51-41) travel to face off against the San Diego Padres (49-47) on Friday, July 12th. This game will be played at PETCO Park in San Diego and televised on BSSE. Both the Braves and Padres are looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. First pitch is set for 8:40 CT.

Braves vs. Padres Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Padres (+106)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 8.5 Runs
  • Padres have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 15 games.
  • Padres have won 6 of their last 8 home games.
  • Padres have a 4-1 record in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
  • Padres have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in their last 6 home games.
  • Padres have a 3-1 record in their last 4 head-to-head games against the Braves.

Braves vs Padres

atlanta braves nba

The Padres Took The Last Game Of This Series

Max Fried will be looking to get back on track when the Braves close out their series vs. the Diamondbacks. Fried took the loss in his last start, giving up a run on five hits. He also issued three walks and hit a batter. The Braves’ offense was held scoreless in the their 1-0 loss to the Diamondbacks. Atlanta was the -117 favorite on the money line going into the game.

Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna each had two hits for the Braves but didn’t score a run. Riley also had a double. The Braves had a chance to tie things up in the 5th, but Riley was thrown out at home. Atlanta’s bullpen was solid, going three innings and not giving up a run. However, the Braves couldn’t close things out, and Max Fried took the loss.

Atlanta has an over/under record of 8-16 when the total line is set at 8.5 runs. This season, 36 of their games have had total lines higher than 8.5, making up 39.1% of their games. The Braves are 51-41 overall and are 9.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East standings.

As the favorite, the Braves have a 48-34 straight-up record, while they are 3-7 as underdogs. Against the run line as underdogs, they are 5-5, and their overall run line record on the road is 22-24. Atlanta’s series record this season is 17-11-3, and they are coming off a series split with the Diamondbacks.

Spencer Schwellenbach Gets The Start For The Braves

Spencer Schwellenbach is looking to build off his last outing, where he faced the Phillies and picked up the win. In that July 6th start, he went six innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Schwellenbach has made seven starts and has a record of 2-4. His ERA for the season is 5.02, along with a WHIP of 1.27. Opponents have hit .260 off the right-hander this season. Schwellenbach has made three quality starts this year, and his ERA on the road is 7.26 compared to 3.9 at home.

Braves Offense Breakdown

Marcell Ozuna has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/35 in his last nine games, including three homers. Overall, Ozuna is batting .298 with 24 homers and 75 RBIs, which is 4th and 3rd in the league, respectively. Matt Olson is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has 13 homers but is batting just .234 for the season.

As a team, the Braves are 17th in the league in scoring at 4.3 runs per game. This is also their average when playing at home. Overall, they are 10th in the league in home runs and have the 12th batting average in the league. Atlanta’s offense is also near the top of the league in isolated power.

The Padres Took The Last Game Of This Series

The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Mariners with a 2-0 loss. San Diego was the -143 favorite at home going into the game but couldn’t get anything going offensively. The Padres only had six hits and didn’t score a run. Michael King was the hard-luck loser, as he pitched six innings of one-run ball and got no run support.

San Diego’s offense wasted a good start from King, as they still lost the game. He also issued just one walk and struck out nine Mariners. Despite pitching well, he took the loss.

San Diego is 4-6 in their last 10 games and they are currently seven games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Padres have dropped two straight series and are 49-47 overall. Their run line record is 31-14 on the road, but just 18-33 at home. As underdogs, they are 28-12 vs. the run line, but as favorites, they are 21-35.

For the season, the Padres have played to the under in 58.3% of their games and their O/U record when the total is 8.5 is 13-11. The combined run average in their games is 9.0, and the O/U record stands at 52-43.

Randy Vásquez Gets The Start For The Padres

Randy Vásquez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Braves at home. He has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 2-4 with an ERA of 4.66. Vásquez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.60. In his 12 appearances, he has turned in three quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Vásquez finished with a no-decision after giving up two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. He only gave up one homer in that outing. Before that, he had given up a homer in three straight outings.

Padres Offense Breakdown

san diego padres

Jurickson Profar has been a key power bat for the Padres this season, as his 14 home runs are the best mark on the team and 10th in the MLB. Profar is also 10th in the league in RBIs, as he has driven in 59 runs so far this season. Profar has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/22 in his last six games with three homers. Jake Cronenworth has also been a key power bat for the Padres, as he has 13 homers and is 14th in the league with 55 RBIs.

As a team, the Padres are batting .261, which is the 2nd best mark in the league, and they are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. San Diego’s offense has been even better on the road this season, averaging 4.7 runs per contest.

Braves vs Padres Prediction

Our prediction for today’s Braves vs. Padres game is to take the Padres on the money line at +106. We have the Padres winning this one by a final score of 5-4. At +106, the Padres are offering a nice payout, and we have them winning this game 53% of the time.

Looking at some potential player props, we have Randy Vásquez finishing with five strikeouts, which would have him finishing with the sixth-fewest among starting pitchers today. As for Spencer Schwellenbach, we have him ending with five strikeouts, which would have him finishing with the eighth-fewest.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.