The Houston Astros (61-55) travel to face off against the Boston Red Sox (61-54) on Sunday, August 11th. This game will be played at Fenway Park in Boston and televised on None. The Astros are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Red Sox are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Astros. First pitch is set for 12:35 CT.
Astros vs. Red Sox Betting Prediction
- Money Line Prediction: Red Sox (+118)
- Over/Under Prediction: Over 10.5 Runs
- In the last 15 games, the Red Sox have scored 6 or more runs in 7 games, showing strong offensive performance.
- The Red Sox have a home record of 27-30, while the Astros have an away record of 29-29, indicating a balanced matchup but with a slight edge to the home team.
- In their last 15 games, the Red Sox have won 7 games, showing a competitive form.
- The Red Sox have a higher league rank (6th) compared to the Astros (7th), indicating a slightly better overall performance this season.
- The Red Sox have won 4 out of their last 7 home games, demonstrating solid recent performance at home.
Astros vs Red Sox
Houston rallied for two runs in the 8th inning in the most recent game of this Astros vs. Red Sox series. The Astros scored one run in the 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up two in the top of the 8th, picking up a 5-4 win. Heading into the game, the Astros were at -103 on the money line.
Spencer Arrighetti pitched well for the Astros in this one, going seven innings and giving up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished with 13 strikeouts and picked up a win in the game. Josh Hader got the save. Brad Keller had a rough outing for the Red Sox, taking the loss.
Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman each homered for the Astros, while Zach Dezenzo scored twice and drove in a run while going 2/4. Victor Caratini also had a two-hit game at the plate.
As the Astros look to sweep the Red Sox, they are on a four-game winning streak and share the AL West lead with the Mariners. Houston’s overall record is 61-55, and they are 21-18 in division matchups. The Astros’ series record is 20-16-1, and they have covered the run line in six straight road games, with a 32-26 ATS mark on the road.
For the season, the over/under record in Astros games is 46-66, with games averaging 8.8 runs. When the O/U line has been 10.5, the under has hit in all four games. Today’s O/U line is 10.5, and the Astros have a 29-29 straight-up record on the road.
Hunter Brown Gets The Start For The Astros
Hunter Brown gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. So far this season, he has made 22 starts and has a record of 9-7 with an ERA of 3.98. Brown’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.37. In his 22 starts, he has turned in 13 quality starts and is averaging 9.59 strikeouts per nine innings. Brown’s last outing came against the Rangers, where he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on three hits. Before that, he had won three straight starts.
Astros Offense Breakdown
Yordan Alvarez has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Astros, going 12/34 with four homers over his last nine games. For the season, Alvarez is batting .304 with 24 home runs, which is the best mark on the team and 10th in the league. His 62 RBIs are also the best on the team. Kyle Tucker is 2nd on the Astros with 19 homers and is batting .266 this season.
As a team, the Astros are 2nd in the league in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Houston is also among the league leaders in slugging percentage and have the 8th best on-base percentage in the league.
Boston is 61-54 overall and has lost three games in a row, and they are 14-13 in the AL East, sitting 7.5 games behind the Orioles. The Red Sox have a 19-13-5 series record and have won three straight series. Their average run margin in winning games is +4.1, while it is -4.1 in losses, and their overall run line record is 54-61.
When the Red Sox are underdogs, they are 34-25 on the run line, but as favorites, they have a 20-36 run line record. The O/U record for Boston games this season is 60-49, with games averaging 9.7 runs. Today’s O/U line of 10.5 runs is the highest of the season, as only 1% of their games have had a higher total.
James Paxton Gets The Start For The Red Sox
Left-hander James Paxton gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Astros at home. So far this season, he has made 20 starts and has a record of 9-3 with a 4.42 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Paxton has a WHIP of 1.44 and opponents are batting .243 this season. In his 20 starts, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 6.59 strikeouts per nine innings. Paxton’s most recent outing came against the Royals, where he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts.
Red Sox Offense Breakdown
One of the top offenses in the league, the Red Sox are averaging 5 runs per game and come in as the 4th ranked scoring offense in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per game. Boston has been one of the best home run-hitting teams in the league this season and also have the league’s best team BABIP.
Rafael Devers has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 25 home runs are 9th in the league and the best mark on the Red Sox. He also leads the team with 71 RBIs. Devers comes into the game with a batting average of .300. Jarren Duran has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/40 in his last nine games.
Astros vs Red Sox Prediction
With the Red Sox at +118 on the money line, we see this as a great value pick. Our model has the Red Sox winning this one 6-5, and with the payout, we would take them on the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have James Paxton finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him finishing around 14th in the league. As for Hunter Brown, we have him finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him finishing around 11th.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:August 11, 2024 Astros, Red Sox