New York Mets vs San Diego Padres MLB Betting Prediction

MLB New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction 8/23/2024

The New York Mets (67-61) travel to face off against the San Diego Padres (72-57) on Friday, August 23rd. This game will be played at PETCO Park in San Diego and televised on SNY. The Mets are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Padres are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Mets. First pitch is set for 8:40 CT.

Mets vs. Padres Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Padres (-140)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 7.5 Runs
  • Padres have scored 5 or more runs in 9 of their last 15 games.
  • Padres have a 6-4 record in their last 10 home games.
  • Padres have won 4 of their last 5 home games against the Mets.
  • Padres have a higher overall win percentage (.558) compared to the Mets (.523) in the last 15 games.
  • Padres have outscored their opponents by 20 runs in the last 15 games.

Mets vs Padres

new york mets nba

New York picked up an 8-3 road win over the Padres in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 9th inning, scoring five of their eight runs. As for the Padres, they scored their only three runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Mets were the +134 underdogs.

Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil each homered for the Mets, while Mark Vientos scored three times and drove in three runs while going 2/5. Jesse Winker also had a two-hit game and drove in two runs.

Luis Severino only went five innings for the Mets but gave up just one hit and one earned run. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued four walks. Dylan Cease struggled on the mound for the Padres, giving up two homers and seven runs in 6 1/3 innings of work.

Overall, the Mets have a 67-61 record and they are 7.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. They have won two straight games and are 6-4 in their last 10. Their series record is 21-16-7, and they have won two straight series.

As underdogs, the Mets have been a better run line play with a 29-21 record, while they are 31-47 as favorites. Their over/under record for the season is 65-59, and 71.1% of their games have gone over the total set at 7.5 runs for today’s game against the Padres.

Paul Blackburn Gets The Start For The Mets

New York is sending right-hander Paul Blackburn to the mound today vs. the Padres. He has made 13 starts this season and has a record of 5-3 with an ERA of 4.19. Blackburn’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.19. In his 13 appearances, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 7.15 strikeouts per nine innings. Blackburn most recently pitched on August 18th vs. the Marlins, where he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on four hits. Before that outing, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.

Mets Offense Breakdown

Francisco Lindor has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Mets, going 10/28 in his last seven games, including two home runs. For the season, he is batting .268 with a team-high 73 RBIs and is 2nd on the team with 25 homers. Pete Alonso is just ahead of Lindor in home runs, as he has 27 long balls this season and is batting .247.

The Mets offense comes into the game averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 5th in home runs and have the 5th best OPS in the league.

San Diego is hosting the Mets today with an overall record of 72-57, and they are 3rd in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by 4.5 games. The Padres have dropped two straight games, and this came after winning six of seven. The Padres’ overall series record is 26-14-3, and they are losing the series vs. the Mets 0-1.

For run-line betting, the Padres have been strong on the road with a 41-22 record, but they are 26-40 against the run line at home. San Diego’s over/under record this season is 70-58, and the over has hit in four straight games. The O/U line for today’s game is set at 7.5 runs, and the average run total in Padres games is 9.0 runs per game.

Joe Musgrove Gets The Start For The Padres

Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Padres today and will face the Mets at home. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 3-4 with an ERA of 4.97. Musgrove has made four quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow an earned run. In that start, he finished with a no-decision, going 4 1/3 innings against the Pirates. Musgrove has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. The right-hander has allowed a total of 10 home runs this year.

Padres Offense Breakdown

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So far this season, the Padres have been the best hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .265. They are also near the top of the league in runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. San Diego has also done a great job of putting the ball in play, as they are the league’s top team in terms of fewest strikeouts.

Over his last nine games, Manny Machado has gone just 7/30 for the Padres, but he does have two homers and five RBIs in this stretch. Jurickson Profar and Machado are tied for the team lead in homers, with 20, and Profar’s 77 RBIs is the best mark on the team and 15th in the league. Profar is also batting .290 for the season.

Mets vs Padres Prediction

Our predicted final score for this game is 6-5 in favor of the Padres, which would give us a good amount of cushion on the money line. At -140, the payout is still solid, and we recommend taking the Padres to win at home.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Joe Musgrove has a better chance of picking up a win than Paul Blackburn and is projected to finish with six strikeouts compared to Blackburn’s four.

Offensively, the Mets are projected to finish with nine hits compared to the Padres’ nine. However, the Padres are projected to finish with a higher team average and are also predicted to finish with fewer strikeouts.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.