Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction 9/27/2024

The Baltimore Orioles (88-71) travel to face off against the Minnesota Twins (82-77) on Friday, September 27th. This game will be played at Target Field in Minneapolis and televised on BSN. Both the Orioles and Twins are looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. First pitch is set for 7:10 CT.

Orioles vs. Twins Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Twins (-173)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 8.5 Runs
  • The Twins have scored 6 or more runs in 5 of their last 7 home games.
  • The Twins have a home record of 43-35, while the Orioles have an away record of 44-34, indicating a strong home-field advantage for the Twins.
  • The Twins have won 3 of their last 4 home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Twins have a higher run differential (+7) in their last 5 home games compared to the Orioles’ run differential (-2) in their last 5 away games.
  • The Twins have a better recent performance against AL East teams, winning 4 of their last 6 games against such opponents.

Orioles vs Twins

baltimore orioles nba

The Twins Took The Last Game Of This Series

The Orioles will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Yankees with a 10-1 loss. Baltimore was the +141 underdog on the money line going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Orioles, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Yankees scored six times in the bottom of the second.

Baltimore started Corbin Burnes, and he took the loss, going five innings and giving up six earned runs on only two hits. He also issued seven walks and hit a batter. The Orioles’s offense scored their only run in the 9th inning and finished with a total of seven hits.

With an overall record of 88-71, the Orioles are five games behind the Yankees for the AL East lead. Baltimore is 32-20 against other AL East teams this season. They have an average run margin of +0.4 runs per game and an over/under record of 85-63. The O’s have an 84-75 run line record, including 46-32 on the road.

As the favorite, the Orioles are 70-52 this year and 18-19 as the underdog. They are 2nd in the AL East after winning the final two games of their series vs. the Yankees. Baltimore’s overall series record this season is 26-18-7, and their current over streak is at 2 games.

Cade Povich Gets The Start For The Orioles

Cade Povich is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Tigers, as he finished with a no-decision in the outing. Against the Tigers, he gave up two earned runs on three hits in five innings of work. Looking back at his last three outings, Povich has finished with a no-decision, loss, and loss. His record for the season is 2-9, and he has an ERA of 5.59. Povich has made 15 starts this year and has a WHIP of 1.50. Per nine innings, he is averaging 4.01 walks compared to 8.15 strikeouts.

Orioles Offense Breakdown

Anthony Santander has had a great season in terms of power numbers, as he is 3rd in the MLB with 44 home runs and is also 10th in the league with 101 RBIs. However, he has struggled at the plate of late, hitting just .152 over his last nine games. Gunnar Henderson has been a bright spot for the Orioles offense, as he is batting .284 for the season and has gone 12/38 in his last nine games.

As a team, the Orioles are 2nd in the league in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they have the league’s 2nd best isolated power mark and are near the top of the league in team slugging and OPS.

The Twins Took The Last Game Of This Series

The Twins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Marlins with an 8-6 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 10th inning before the Marlins scored three runs in the top of the 11th. Minnesota was the -254 favorite at home going into the game.

David Festa got the start for the Twins and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up three earned runs on seven hits. The Twins also wasted a big game from Carlos Correa, who went 3/5 with a homer and a run scored.

Minnesota has an overall series record of 26-21-4 and will be looking to snap a four-series losing streak when they take on the Orioles today. The Twins have an 82-77 record and are 4th in the AL Central, 10 games behind the Guardians.

For the season, the Twins have gone 73-86 against the run line, with a +0.1 run differential per game. Their over/under record is 81-72, with the average run total in their games being 9.1. The over/under line for today’s game is 8.5, and their O/U record in games with that line is 26-22.

Pablo López Gets The Start For The Twins

Pablo López gets the start for the Twins today vs. the Orioles and comes in with a record of 15-9 and an ERA of 4.11. So far this season, he has made 31 starts, and opponents are batting .248 off the right-hander. In his 31 appearances, López has turned in 18 quality starts and is averaging 9.52 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, López took the loss vs. the Red Sox, giving up seven earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts.

Twins Offense Breakdown

minnesota twins

Carlos Santana has been the Twins’ top power threat this season, as he leads the team with 22 home runs and 68 RBIs. However, he is batting just .234 for the season. Willi Castro has also been a solid run producer for the Twins, as his 60 RBIs are 3rd in the lineup, and he is batting .248. Castro has gone deep 12 times this season.

Over his last eight games, Carlos Correa has gone 11/32, including one home run, and has driven in seven runs. Byron Buxton is batting .273 over his last seven games and is currently on a six-game hitting streak. For the season, Buxton is batting .248 with 12 homers.

Orioles vs Twins Prediction

Our prediction for this Twins vs. Orioles matchup is to take the Twins to win at home, but at -173, the payout isn’t great. Instead, we recommend taking the over at 8.5 runs. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Twins, giving us some nice value with the over.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Pablo Lopez is projected to go five innings for the Twins, while Cade Povich is projected to go seven for the Orioles. However, we have Lopez finishing with more strikeouts than Povich, as he is projected to finish with six, compared to Povich at six.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.