The Philadelphia Phillies (90-60) travel to face off against the Milwaukee Brewers (87-63) on Tuesday, September 17th. This game will be played at American Family Field in Milwaukee and televised on TBS. The Brewers are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Phillies are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Brewers. First pitch is set for 6:40 CT.
Phillies vs. Brewers Betting Prediction
- Money Line Prediction: Brewers (+120)
- Over/Under Prediction: Over 7.5 Runs
- The Brewers have scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 15 games.
- The Brewers have won 5 out of their last 7 home games.
- The Brewers have a home record of 43-29, compared to the Phillies’ away record of 38-34.
- The Brewers have won 3 out of their last 4 games against teams with a winning record.
- The Brewers have a league rank of 3rd, compared to the Phillies’ league rank of 1st, but have a better home performance in recent games.
Phillies vs Brewers
Despite coming in as the slight underdogs on the road, the Phillies picked up a 6-2 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. Milwaukee’s offense got off to a fast start, scoring two runs in the first and adding three more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Phillies got on the board with one run in the 5th and added their final run in the 7th.
Ranger Suarez only went five innings for the Phillies but gave up just three hits and three earned runs. Aaron Civale struggled on the mound for the Brewers, giving up seven hits and six earned runs in five innings of work. He did finish the game with six strikeouts.
Brandon Marsh and Kyle Schwarber each homered for the Phillies, while Bryce Harper went 2/4 with two RBIs. Trea Turner also had a two-hit game and scored a run for Philadelphia’s offense.
Philadelphia is 27-16-7 in series this season and has won two straight. They lead the NL East by eight games with a 90-60 record and have a 52-26 home record. Against the run line, the Phillies are 72-78 overall and 37-35 on the road.
When the over/under line is 7.5 runs, the Phillies have a 13-14 O/U record. Their games have averaged 8.9 runs, and their overall O/U record is 70-72. Today, the O/U line is 7.5 runs, which is lower than usual, as 73.3% of their games have had higher total lines.
Zack Wheeler Gets The Start For The Phillies
Zack Wheeler has been pitching well for the Phillies, coming into the game with a record of 15-6 and an ERA of 2.60. So far, he has made 29 starts and has pitched well on the road, going 5-3 with a 3.66 ERA. Wheeler’s ERA at home is 2.56. In his 29 starts, he has turned in 23 quality starts and is averaging 9.97 strikeouts per nine innings. Wheeler’s last outing came on September 11th, where he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on four hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Phillies Offense Breakdown
Philadelphia’s offense has been one of the league’s best this season, as they are 5th in runs per game (4.8), and are 3rd in home runs and batting average. They also have a collective OBP of .327 and are the 4th best team in terms of OPS. The Phillies have been even better at home this season, averaging 5 runs per game.
Over the past five games, Bryce Harper has gone 5/18 with two homers and three RBIs. Harper is batting .290 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 28 homers. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 35 homers and is 11th in the league with 96 RBIs.
As favorites, the Brewers have a 50-36 record this season, and they have an overall series record of 27-17-4, including two straight series wins. Milwaukee’s run line record is 78-72, with a 43-35 mark on the road and a 44-20 record as underdogs. The Brewers’ average run margin in wins is +3.6, while in losses, it’s -2.8.
Milwaukee is 43-29 at home this season and 44-34 on the road. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs, and their over/under record is 77-63. The over/under line for their games has been set higher than 7.5 runs in 72.7% of their matchups this year.
Frankie Montas Gets The Start For The Brewers
Frankie Montas will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that outing vs. the Giants, he went six innings and gave up just two hits. Looking back over his last four starts, Montas has given up four earned runs in three of them. His record for the season is 7-10, and his ERA is 4.49. Montas has made 27 starts this year and has a WHIP of 1.34. For the season, he has allowed 18 home runs and is averaging 8.33 strikeouts per nine innings.
Brewers Offense Breakdown
As a team, the Brewers are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 4th in the league. They have been even better on the road, putting up an average of 5.1 runs per contest. Milwaukee has been one of the league’s best home run hitting teams this season, and they also have a good team batting average of .250.
Willy Adames has been a key run producer for the Brewers this season, as his 109 RBIs are the 2nd most in the league. He also leads the team with 32 home runs. However, Adames is hitting just .250 for the season and has a batting average of just .211 over his last 10 games. William Contreras comes into the game with a batting average of .281 and is 3rd on the team with 22 homers.
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction
With the Brewers being the underdog at +120, that is the way we recommend playing this one. We have Milwaukee winning this game 5-4, giving us a little wiggle room with the over/under line sitting at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Frankie Montas finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Zack Wheeler with six. Wheeler is projected to go nine innings, but with a lot of hits and runs, we don’t see him as a good option today.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:September 17, 2024 Brewers, Phillies