Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction 9/22/2024

The Philadelphia Phillies (92-63) travel to face off against the New York Mets (86-69) on Sunday, September 22nd. This game will be played at Citi Field in New York and televised on ESPN. The Mets are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Phillies are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Mets. First pitch is set for 6:15 CT.

Phillies vs. Mets Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Mets (+133)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 6.5 Runs
  • The Mets have won 10 of their last 15 games, showing strong recent form.
  • The Mets have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game in their last 15 games, indicating a potent offense.
  • The Mets have won 7 of their last 8 home games, demonstrating a strong home-field advantage.
  • The Mets have outscored the Phillies 29-23 in their last 6 head-to-head matchups.
  • The Mets have a higher league rank in home wins (45) compared to the Phillies’ away wins (40), suggesting better performance at home.

Phillies vs Mets

philadelphia phillies nba

New York picked up a 6-3 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 2nd inning, scoring all six of their runs. As for the Phillies, they scored their first run in the 5th and added two more in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -117 on the money line.

Sean Manaea started for the Mets and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts and didn’t issue a walk. On the other side, Ranger Suarez got the start for the Phillies and took the loss, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work.

New York’s offense was led by Francisco Alvarez and Luisangel Acuna, as they were the only two Mets hitters to have more than one hit. Alvarez hit the game’s only home run while going 2/4 with three RBIs.

Philadelphia has a 92-63 overall record and leads the NL East by six games over the Mets. They have gone 28-20 in divisional matchups and are 52-26 at home. The Phillies have dropped two of three games in their series vs. the Mets and have an overall series record of 25-17-7 this season.

When it comes to run line betting, the Phillies have a 75-80 record, including a 40-37 mark on the road. The over/under line for their games has averaged 8 runs per game, and their O/U record for the season is 73-74. The total has gone over in three straight games, and the O/U line for today’s game is set at 6.5 runs.

Zack Wheeler Gets The Start For The Phillies

Zack Wheeler has been pitching well for the Phillies, as he has won his last four starts. Most recently, he faced the Brewers on September 17th, where he picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Wheeler has made 30 starts and has a record of 16-6. His ERA for the season is an impressive 2.56, along with a WHIP of .95. Wheeler has made 24 quality starts this year and is averaging 9.88 strikeouts per nine innings. So far, he has allowed 18 home runs. Per the league, Wheeler’s starter wins rank is 3rd.

Phillies Offense Breakdown

Philadelphia comes into the game as one of the top offensive teams in the league, averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 4th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 4th in team batting average (.258) and have the 8th most home runs in the league. The Phillies also have a strong on-base percentage, as they are 4th in the league in this category.

Over the last six games, Nick Castellanos has gone 7/23 with two homers, and Alec Bohm has also gone deep twice in this stretch, but he is just 5/20 in his last five games. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 36 homers and is on a six-game hitting streak.

Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 2nd in the NL East, six games behind the Phillies. They have won seven of their last ten games, including two of the first three in this series vs. Philadelphia. This season, the Mets have a 58-37 record as the favorite, but they are 28-32 as the underdog.

The Mets have hit the over in their last five games, bringing their season total to 79 overs in 150 games. Their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game, but today’s O/U line is set at 6.5 runs, lower than their usual line of 8 runs.

Tylor Megill Gets The Start For The Mets

Tylor Megill will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. In that outing vs. the Nationals, he gave up two homers. Looking back further, Megill has made 13 starts and is 4-5 with an ERA of 4.08. Opponents are batting .217 off the right-hander this season. Megill has made three quality starts and is averaging 10.14 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed six homers at home and 3.69 walks per nine innings.

Mets Offense Breakdown

new york mets

Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 5th in the league in runs per game at 4.8. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, the Mets are 6th in the league in home runs and have the 9th best team batting average in the MLB.

Over the past six games, Luisangel Acuna and Francisco Alvarez have both been swinging hot bats, with Acuna going 8/19 and Alvarez going 5/16. Both players have three homers over that stretch. Jose Iglesias has also been on a tear, going 12/26 in his last six games. He also has a 15-game hitting streak heading into today’s game.

Phillies vs Mets Prediction

Our predicted score for this one is a 6-4 win for the Mets, which means there is some solid value in taking them on the money line at +133. Offensively, we have the Mets finishing with 10 hits compared to the Phillies with eight.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Zack Wheeler is projected to finish with seven strikeouts compared to Tylor Megill with six. Wheeler has the fourth-best strikeout projection among starters today, while Megill is ninth.

Another way to get in on this one would be to take the Mets to win, and then parlay that with some of our home run picks. The Mets are projected to finish with the most home runs in the league today, and the Phillies are down in 20th.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.