The Pittsburgh Pirates (39-42) travel to face off against the Atlanta Braves (45-35) on Saturday, June 29th. This game will be played at Truist Park in Atlanta and televised on BSSE. The Braves are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Pirates are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Braves. First pitch is set for 3:10 CT.
Pirates vs Braves
The Pirates wasted an excellent outing from Martin Perez, as he went just four innings but gave up just one hit and no earned runs as the Pirates starter vs. the Braves. After scoring one run in the 2nd inning, the Braves were held in check until they broke out for five run in the 6th, picking up a 6-1 win.
Charlie Morton started for the Braves, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up three hits and no earned runs. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued five walks. Morton picked up a win in the game, while Perez took the loss.
Offensively, the Braves were led by Austin Riley and Matt Olson, as they were the only two Braves hitters to have more than one hit. Riley also hit the game’s only home run. For the Pirates, Ke’Bryan Hayes went 2/4 with an RBI.
Pittsburgh is 39-42 overall and trails the Brewers by 9.5 games in the NL Central. The Pirates are 3rd in the division and have gone 12-11 against other teams in the NL Central. This season, they are 19-20 at home compared to 20-22 on the road.
As the road underdog, the Pirates have put together a mark of 14-16 this year. They are also 15-18 when favored and an even 24-24 as the underdog overall. Pittsburgh has won two straight series on the road, and their overall series record is 11-11-4 this year.
When it comes to the run line, the Pirates have been a better bet on the road than at home. They are 24-18 on the run line away from Pittsburgh, compared to 19-20 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog than the favorite, going 32-16 on the run line as the underdog and 11-22 as the favorite. Their average run differential in games they win is +3.0, while it is -3.6 in games they lose.
When the Pirates are on the road, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their season average of 8 runs per game. So far this season, the over/under record for the Pirates is 38-42, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they have gone 5-10. Overall, 72.8% of their games have had higher lines than 7.5 runs, and their current under streak is at 2 games.
Paul Skenes Gets The Start For The Pirates
Pittsburgh is sending right-hander Paul Skenes to the mound today vs. the Braves. He has made a total of eight starts this year and has a record of 4-0 with an ERA of 2.14. Skenes has made six quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he allowed just one earned run in seven innings of work. In that outing, he finished with eight strikeouts. Skenes has been especially good at home, with an ERA of 3.29 compared to 1.0 on the road. He has a WHIP of .99 this year.
Pirates Offense Breakdown
Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are averaging 4 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. This is pretty much in line with their home and road splits, as they are averaging 4.3 runs per game on the road and 3.8 at home. As a team, they are batting just .228, which is 21st in the league, and are also near the bottom of the league in terms of on-base percentage and slugging.
Bryan Reynolds has been a bright spot for the Pirates this season, as he is batting .279 with a team-high 46 RBIs and 13 homers. Reynolds has been even better of late, going 13/34 (.382) with four homers over his last nine games. He also comes into the game on a 24-game hitting streak.
With an overall record of 45-35, the Braves are eight games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Braves are 12-11 against other teams in the NL East. Atlanta is riding a four-game winning streak at home, and they are 25-13 at home this season.
So far on the road, the Braves are 20-22. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 42-29 this year. As the underdog, the Braves are just 3-6 this year. Atlanta has gone 6-4 across their last ten games overall, and they are currently on a two-game winning streak.
When playing at home, the Braves have an average run margin of 0.8 runs per game, and their run line record is 18-20. Their overall run line record is 39-41, and they have a run line record of 34-37 when they are the favorite.
When the Atlanta Braves play at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. Their combined run average for the season is 8.1 runs per game, and their over/under record is 29-48. The average over/under line for their games this season is 9 runs. In games where the line is set at 7.5 runs, the over/under record is 4-7. Overall, 81.2% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs. The under has hit in their last three games.
Max Fried Gets The Start For The Braves
Max Fried is coming off a strong outing against the Yankees, where he picked up the win. In that start, he went six innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking back over his last four starts, Fried has given up no more than two earned runs in any outing. Fried has a record of 7-3 this season and an ERA of 3.00. Opponents are batting .207 off the left-hander this season. Fried has made eight quality starts this year, along with two complete games and one shutout. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.0 strikeouts and 2.7 walks.
Braves Offense Breakdown
Marcell Ozuna has been a key run producer for the Braves this season, as his 67 RBIs are 3rd in the league and lead the team. He also has a team-high 21 homers while batting .304. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team with 41 RBIs and has 12 home runs this season.
Over his last seven games, Austin Riley has two homers and is batting .259, while Jarred Kelenic has also gone deep twice in this stretch while batting .346. Kelenic has six RBIs in his last seven games.
Pirates vs Braves Prediction
With the Braves at -157 on the money line, we see this as a great value pick. In fact, we have the Braves winning this one by a score of 5-4. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also look to the over/under line, as the line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and we have this one going over.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Max Fried is projected to finish with five strikeouts, while Paul Skenes is projected to finish with six. Fried is also projected to go deeper into the game, as we have him going 6.1 innings, compared to Skenes at 5.1.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
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Last updated:June 29, 2024 Braves, Pirates