The Thunder are on the road to face the Denver Nuggets, with both team’s playing their first-game of the season. Tip-off for this season-opener, is set for 10:00 at Ball Arena.
Thunder vs Nuggets
The Thunder Are Looking To Start Their Season With A Win
The Thunder finished last season 57-25, placing 1st in the Western Conference. They were 33-8 at home, with a +13.0 average scoring margin, and went 24-17 on the road. Heading into this season, they are ranked 7th in our power rankings, with a 96.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 59.2% chance of winning their division.
Oklahoma City was 45-37 against the spread last season, with an average line of 232.2 points per game. Their games averaged 232.8 points. They were favored in 61 games, going 47-14 in those matchups, and had a 35-26 record ATS when favored.
The Nuggets Are Looking To Start Their Season With A Win
Denver enters this season ranked 5th in our power rankings, with an 83.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 21.6% chance of winning their division. Last season, the Nuggets finished 57-25, placing 2nd in both the Western Conference and Northwest Division. They were 33-8 at home, with a +9.8 scoring margin, and went 24-17 on the road.
They were favored in 72 games last season, going 53-19 in those matchups, and had a 33-37 record against the spread when favored. Their average over/under line was 225.7 points, and they had a 34-46-2 O/U record, with their games averaging 224.5 points per game.
Thunder Offense Breakdown
Last season, the Thunder ranked 8th in our offensive power rankings, finishing 3rd in points per game (120.1). They were 7th in possessions per game (99.7) and 15th in field goal attempts per game (89.3), but they shot 49.9% from the field, ranking 2nd. From beyond the arc, they were 1st in three-point percentage (38.9%), making 13.3 threes per game (8th) on 34.2 attempts (16th). They also ranked 4th in free throw percentage (82.5%) and 17th in free throw attempts per game (21.5). However, they struggled on the offensive glass, ranking 29th in offensive rebounds per game (8.8).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 30.1 points per game last season, is projected to lead the team and the league in scoring. Jalen Williams is projected to be 2nd on the team in points, ranking 51st in the league. Chet Holmgren is projected to be 3rd on the team in points and 71st in three-pointers made. Luguentz Dort is projected to lead the team in three-pointers made, ranking 48th in the league, while Alex Caruso, a key offseason addition, is projected to be 5th on the team in scoring.
Nuggets Offense Breakdown
Denver enters the season ranked 6th in our offensive power rankings after finishing last season 14th in points per game (114.9). The Nuggets were 28th in possessions per game (96.2) and attempted 88.8 field goals per game (17th). They shot 49.6% from the field (4th) and 37.4% from three (9th), making 11.7 threes per game (25th) on 31.2 attempts (30th). They also ranked 29th in free throw attempts per game (19.9), shooting 76.2% from the line (25th).
Nikola Jokic, who averaged 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9 assists last season, is projected to lead the team in scoring and rank 5th in the league. Michael Porter Jr. is projected to lead the team in made threes, ranking 18th in the league. Jamal Murray is projected to be 2nd on the team in both points and threes. Denver also added Russell Westbrook, who is projected to be 5th on the team in scoring.
Thunder Team Defense
Oklahoma City heads into the season ranked 10th in our defensive power rankings, after allowing 112.7 points per game last year, which was 11th in the NBA. They held opponents to 45.6% shooting, the 4th-lowest mark in the league, and were 15th in three-point defense, allowing 36.4% shooting from beyond the arc.
The Thunder were 2nd in blocked shots, with Chet Holmgren expected to be among the league leaders, and 12th in defensive rebounding. They also averaged 8.5 steals per game, ranking 2nd in the NBA, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander contributing on the boards as one of the top rebounders among point guards.
Nuggets Team Defense
We have the Thunder ranked 10th in our defensive power rankings after a solid season in which they allowed 112.7 points per game, ranking 11th in the NBA. Opponents shot just 45.6% against them, the fourth-lowest mark in the league, and they were 15th in three-point defense, allowing 36.4% shooting.
Oklahoma City was second in blocked shots, with Chet Holmgren expected to be among the league leaders, and they ranked 12th in defensive rebounding. They also averaged 8.5 steals per game, finishing second in the NBA, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander contributing on the boards as well.
Thunder vs Nuggets Trends
- Across their last five road contests, Oklahoma City has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 104 points per game.
- In their last five home games, Denver has averaged 104 points per game while allowing 107. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
- As the betting underdog, the Thunder have an ATS mark of just 4-6 in their last ten games. Oklahoma City posted a straight up mark of 3-7 in these matchups.
- Looking back on the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-4.
Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction
The Thunder come in as the underdog at +2.5, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.
As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 225.5 and our model has the Thunder and Nuggets finishing with a combined 243 points. Our pick is to take the over.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:October 24, 2024 Nuggets, Thunder