Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Prediction 3/25/2025

The Golden State Warriors (41-30) travel to face off against the Miami Heat (30-41) on Tuesday, March 25th. This game will be played at Kaseya Center in Miami and televised on TNT. The Heat are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Warriors are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Warriors. Tip-off is set for 7:30 ET.

Warriors vs Heat

golden state warriors nba

The Warriors Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Warriors’ road struggles continued with a 124-115 loss to the Hawks on Saturday, dropping their record to 41-30. Golden State, favored by 2.5 points, failed to cover the spread, and the combined score of 239 points went over the pre-game total of 233.5.

Atlanta’s 11-0 run in the 1st quarter put the Warriors in a hole early, as they trailed 40-23 after the opening period. Golden State responded by outscoring the Hawks 34-29 in the 2nd quarter but fell further behind in the 3rd, trailing 98-81 going into the 4th. Despite a strong finish, outscoring Atlanta 34-26 in the final period, the Warriors couldn’t complete the comeback.

The Heat Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Miami improved to 30-41 on the season with a 122-105 win over the Hornets on Sunday. The Heat, who were favored by 7.5 points, covered the spread with the 17-point victory. The total score of 227 points went over the pre-game line of 215.

After falling behind 24-9 following a 13-0 run by Charlotte, Miami responded by outscoring the Hornets 37-21 in the 2nd quarter and 39-28 in the 3rd. They entered the 4th quarter with a 96-75 lead before Charlotte outscored them 30-26 in the final period.

Warriors Offense Breakdown

In their 124-115 loss to the Hawks, the Warriors connected on 16 threes, shooting 42.1% from beyond the arc and 46.4% overall. Jimmy Butler led the way with 25 points and 8 assists, while Moses Moody added 20 points, and Brandin Podziemski contributed 19 points, hitting 5 threes at a 62.5% clip.

Moody scored 9 points in the 4th quarter, while Podziemski added 7 in the final period. Jonathan Kuminga also had a strong finish, scoring 12 of his 16 points in the 2nd quarter.

Heat Offense Breakdown

miami heat

Andrew Wiggins led the Heat to a win over the Hornets, scoring 42 points on 76.2% shooting, including 6 threes at a 75% clip. Tyler Herro contributed 29 points, hitting 2 threes at 40%.

Miami shot 57.3% from the field and 41.4% from deep, making 12 threes. Wiggins scored 15 points in the 3rd quarter, while Kel’el Ware added 8 of his 12 points in the same period.

Warriors Team Defense

The Warriors couldn’t overcome a rough defensive start, giving up 40 points in the 1st quarter in their 124-115 loss to the Hawks. They tightened up in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, allowing 29 points in each, and held Atlanta to 26 points in the 4th, but it wasn’t enough to secure the win.

Golden State struggled to contain the Hawks, who shot 57% from the field, including 41% from three, where they hit 15 threes. The Warriors sent Atlanta to the line 18 times, with the Hawks making 11 free throws. Defensively, the Warriors collected 32 rebounds, gave up 10 offensive boards, and added 8 steals and 4 blocks.

Heat Team Defense

The Warriors struggled defensively in the 1st quarter, giving up 40 points, but they tightened up as the game went on, allowing 29 points in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and just 26 in the 4th. Overall, they allowed 124 points on 57% shooting from the field.

Golden State gave up 15 threes, with the Hawks shooting 41% from beyond the arc. The Warriors sent Atlanta to the line 18 times, where they made 11 free throws. Defensively, the Warriors recorded 8 steals and 4 blocks.

Warriors vs Heat Trends

  • When looking at their past five road matchups, Golden State has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 117 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
  • In their last three games at home, the Heat have a straight up record of 0-3 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 97 points per game in these contests.
  • As the betting underdog, the Heat have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. Miami posted a straight up mark of 0-5 in these matchups.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Warriors have a straight up record of 7-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-7-1.

Warriors vs Heat Prediction

For a pick on the point-spread in this Warriors vs. Heat matchup, our bet is to grab the Heat at +4.5. Even though our projections have the Warriors winning 132-128, we see the Heat as the play on the point-spread.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 218 and our model has the Warriors and Heat finishing with a combined 260 points. Our pick is to take the over.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.