Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction 4/11/2025

The Miami Heat (36-44) travel to face off against the New Orleans Pelicans (21-59) on Friday, April 11th. This game will be played at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans and televised on Gulf. Both the Heat and Pelicans will be looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. Tip off is scheduled for 8:00 ET.

Heat vs Pelicans

miami heat nba

The Heat Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Miami’s season record dropped to 36-44 after a 119-111 road loss to the Bulls on Wednesday. The Heat, who were -2.5 point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 230, just over the pre-game line of 227.5.

After leading 32-27 at the end of the 1st quarter, the Heat were hit by a 10-0 run from the Bulls, who took control by outscoring Miami 31-20 in the 2nd quarter. Miami tried to fight back, but the Bulls maintained their lead by edging out the Heat 34-32 in the 3rd quarter, and both teams scored 27 points in the 4th.

The Pelicans Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Pelicans fell to 21-59 on the season after a 136-111 road loss to the Bucks on Thursday. New Orleans entered the game as +16.5 point underdogs but failed to cover the spread. The total score of 247 points exceeded the O/U line of 222.5 by 24.5 points.

New Orleans started strong, leading 26-21 after the 1st quarter, but a key 11-0 run by Milwaukee stretched the lead from 52-50 to 63-50. The Bucks outscored the Pelicans 41-28 in the 2nd quarter and 38-31 in the 3rd, and they closed out the game by winning the 4th quarter 36-26.

Heat Offense Breakdown

Tyler Herro led the Heat with 30 points and 4 assists in their 119-111 loss to the Bulls, shooting 50% from the field, though he struggled from deep, hitting just 28.6% of his threes. Bam Adebayo contributed 18 points, while Davion Mitchell added 17 points and 8 assists, connecting on 60% of his shots.

Miami shot 47.8% from the field, making 12 threes at a 36.4% clip. Herro scored 11 points in the 4th quarter, while Andrew Wiggins added 5 of his 14 points in the final period.

Pelicans Offense Breakdown

new orleans pelicans

The Pelicans struggled offensively in their loss to the Bucks, shooting just 42.7% from the field and 31.9% from three-point range, despite hitting 15 threes overall. Lester Quinones led the team with 21 points, 11 of which came in the second quarter.

Jamal Cain and Keion Brooks each added 20 points, with Cain scoring 13 in the 4th quarter and Brooks contributing 7 in the final period. Antonio Reeves and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl both added 15 points, with Robinson-Earl scoring 9 in the opening quarter.

Heat Team Defense

Defensively, the Heat struggled against the Bulls, giving up 119 points on 51% shooting. They allowed 27 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters, but the 2nd and 3rd quarters were tougher, with 31 and 34 points allowed, respectively.

From beyond the arc, the Bulls hit 14 threes at a 37% clip. The Heat also sent the Bulls to the line 13 times, where they converted all their free throws. Miami finished with 28 defensive rebounds, allowing 10 offensive boards, while recording 11 steals and 3 blocks.

Pelicans Team Defense

Defensively, the Heat struggled against the Bulls, giving up 119 points on 51% shooting. Miami allowed 27 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters, but their toughest stretch came in the 3rd, where they gave up 34 points.

From beyond the arc, the Heat allowed the Bulls to hit 14 threes at a 37% clip. Chicago also went 13/13 from the free-throw line. Miami finished with 28 defensive rebounds, allowed 10 offensive boards, and recorded 11 steals.

Heat vs Pelicans Trends

  • Although Miami has a straight up record of 4-6 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 5-5. The team averaged 108 points per game in these games.
  • Through their last three home contests, the Pelicans offense has averaged 111 points per game while allowing an average of 126. New Orleans posted an overall record of 0-3 while going 0-3 ATS.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Pelicans have a straight up record of 1-9. But, their mark vs the spread was just 4-5-1.
  • Across their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Heat have an overall record of 3-2 while going 2-2-1 against the spread.

Heat vs Pelicans Prediction

Our bet is on the Heat for a win, and we project the score to be 127-73. Additionally, we expect them to cover the spread, so our recommendation is to wager on the Heat with the spread at -13.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 215 and our model has the Heat and Pelicans finishing with a combined 200 points. Our pick is to take the under.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.