Florida Gators vs Tennessee Volunteers NCAAF Betting Prediction

NCAAF Florida Gators vs Tennessee Prediction 10/12/2024

The Florida Gators (3-2) face off against the Tennessee Volunteers (4-1) on Saturday, October 12th. This game will be played at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville and televised on ESPN. Florida is coming off a win in their previous game, while Tennessee is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Arkansas. Kickoff is set for 7:00 ET.

Florida Gators vs Tennessee Volunteers

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Florida Offense Breakdown

Florida’s offense ranks 46th in the nation in scoring, averaging 30.2 points per game, and they are 30th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 7. Their passing game is 46th in yards per game, with 268.6, but they are 3rd in completion percentage, completing 73.5% of their passes. They also rank 37th in completions per game.

DJ Lagway has thrown for 667 yards, with a passer rating of 111. He has four touchdowns and three interceptions. Montrell Johnson Jr. leads the rushing attack with 288 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Florida ranks 87th in rushing yards per game. Elijhah Badger has 346 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Tennessee Offense Breakdown

Tennessee’s offense has been driven by their rushing attack, ranking 9th nationally with 270 yards per game on the ground. They are 12th in rushing attempts, averaging 46 per game. Dylan Sampson leads the team with 589 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging 6 yards per carry. Tennessee is 4th in scoring, putting up 46 points per game, and we have them ranked 22nd in our offensive power rankings heading into week 7.

Nico Iamaleava has thrown for 1,048 yards, with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. His passer rating is 107, and Tennessee is 59th in passing yards per game. They are 22nd in third down conversions, with a 48.1% success rate. Dont’e Thornton Jr. leads the receivers with 284 yards and three touchdowns on eight catches.

Florida Team Defense

Florida’s defense is ranked 43rd nationally, allowing 24.4 points per game. In their recent game against UCF, they gave up just 13 points, while allowing 273 total yards, including 108 rushing yards on 40 carries and 165 passing yards. The defense also forced an interception in the game.

Opponents are averaging 172.8 rushing yards per game against Florida, ranking the Gators 123rd in the nation. The secondary has allowed 222.4 passing yards per game, with quarterbacks completing 63.4% of their passes and posting a passer rating of 97.6, which ranks 128th nationally.

Florida Team Defense

Despite a strong defensive effort, Tennessee lost 19-14 to Arkansas, allowing 19 points. The Volunteers gave up 436 total yards, including 297 passing yards, but no passing touchdowns. Arkansas rushed 43 times for 139 yards and two scores.

On the season, Tennessee’s defense ranks 4th nationally, allowing just 9.4 points per game. They’re 8th in rushing yards allowed, giving up only 81.4 yards per game, and 20th in passing yards, allowing 159.6 yards per game.

Florida vs Tennessee Trends

  • Florida has a 2-3 record in their last five road games. In this stretch, they averaged 33 points per game while allowing 37. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
  • When looking at their past ten home matchups, Tennessee has an ATS record of 6-4 while averaging 30 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
  • Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Florida Gators have a straight up record of 0-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 0-3.
  • As the betting favorite, the Tennessee Volunteers have an ATS mark of just 7-3 in their last ten games. Tennessee posted a straight up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.

Gators vs Volunteers Prediction

We have Tennessee winning this matchup by a score of 29-22, but with Florida coming in as +15.5 point underdogs, we like their chances to cover the spread. Tennessee is the heavy favorite, but Florida should keep it close enough to cover.

For the over/under, our projection of 51 points is below the current line of 54.5 points, making the under the best bet for this matchup.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.