Missouri Tigers vs UMass Minutemen NCAAF Betting Prediction

NCAAF Missouri Tigers vs UMass Minutemen Prediction 10/12/2024

The Missouri Tigers (4-1) face off against the UMass Minutemen (1-5) on Saturday, October 12th. This game will be played at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst and televised on ESPN2. Both Missouri and UMass will be looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 ET.

Missouri Tigers vs UMass Minutemen

NoneNone

Missouri Offense Breakdown

Missouri’s offense is averaging 31.2 points per game, ranking 40th in the nation, and they are 59th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 7. Their passing game has been the focus, with 36.4 attempts per game, ranking 27th. They are 20th in completions, averaging 24.2 per game, and 61st in passing yards, with 249.8 yards per game. They have converted 50.6% of their third downs, which ranks 15th nationally.

Brady Cook leads the team with 1,132 passing yards and a passer rating of 91. He has completed 63.6% of his passes, throwing five touchdowns and one interception. Nate Noel is the leading rusher with 471 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry. Theo Wease Jr. has 359 receiving yards on 28 catches.

UMass Offense Breakdown

UMass’s offense is averaging 19.2 points per game, placing them 85th in the country as they head into week 7. They are 94th in our offensive power rankings. Taisun Phommachanh has thrown for 1,280 yards, and the team is 28th in passing attempts per game. They are 34th in completions and 54th in passing yards, averaging 213.3 yards per game. Phommachanh has seven touchdowns and three interceptions, with a passer rating of 85.

UMass is also 6th in rushing attempts, averaging 40.8 per game, but they are only 73rd in rushing yards, with 133.5 yards per game. Jalen John leads the team with 210 rushing yards. Jakobie Keeney-James has 493 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 24 catches.

Missouri Team Defense

Missouri’s defense struggled in their recent game against Texas A&M, allowing 41 points in a 41-10 loss. They gave up 512 total yards, including 236 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns, though they did hold Texas A&M without a passing touchdown.

Despite the rough outing, Missouri’s defense ranks 19th nationally, allowing just 17.8 points per game. They are also 16th in the country in passing yards allowed, giving up only 157 yards per game through the air.

Missouri Team Defense

UMass’s defense has allowed an average of 31.3 points per game this season, including 34 points in their recent 34-20 loss to Northern Illinois. They struggled against the run, giving up 368 rushing yards and four touchdowns, though they allowed just 35 passing yards on six completions and forced one interception.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 162.3 passing yards per game against UMass, completing 54.5% of their throws. UMass ranks 24th nationally in passing yards allowed but has struggled against the run, giving up 165.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 113th in the country.

Missouri vs UMass Trends

  • Across their last five road contests, Missouri has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 26 points per game.
  • In their last three games at home, the UMass Minutemen have a straight up record of 0-3 while going 1-1-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 14 points per game in this stretch.
  • Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the UMass Minutemen have a straight up record of 1-9. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-3-1.
  • In their last three contests as the favorite, Missouri has a poor record vs the spread going 1-2. But, they still put together a straight up mark of 3-0.

Tigers vs Minutemen Prediction

Our projection for the Missouri vs. UMass matchup is a final score of 32-27 in favor of Missouri. UMass comes in as the heavy underdog, but we like their chances to cover the +27.5 point spread.

With the over/under line sitting at 53.5 points, our projection of 59 combined points suggests that taking the over is the best play in this game.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.