Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos NFL Betting Prediction

NFL Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos Prediction 11/17/2024

The Atlanta Falcons will face off against the Denver Broncos at 4:05 ET on Sunday, November 17th. This matchup is being played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver.

The Falcons and Broncos will face off at 4:05 ET on Sunday, November 17th at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. The Falcons are the road underdog with a point spread of +2.5 and a money line of +112. On the other side, the Broncos are favored with a money line of -134. This non-conference matchup is being televised on FOX, and the over/under line is set at 44 points.

  • Date: Sunday, November 17th
  • Time: 4:05 ET
  • Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
  • TV: FOX

Falcons vs Broncos

atlanta falcons nfl

At 6-4, the Falcons hold a narrow lead in the NFC South, with our projections giving them an 85.5% chance of winning the division and an 86.9% chance of making the playoffs. Atlanta ranks 14th in our power rankings heading into week 11. They are 3-3 at home and 3-1 on the road this season.

After two straight wins, the Falcons couldn’t get it done in week 10, falling to the Saints 20-17. Atlanta was a 3.5-point favorite in this game. They are now 5-5 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +0.2 points per game. Their O/U record is 4-6, with the under hitting in two straight games.

Heading into week 11, the Broncos are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 16-14 loss to the Chiefs in week 10. Despite the defeat, Denver managed to cover the spread as 7-point underdogs. The O/U line for the game was 42.5 points, with the teams combining for 30. Before that, the Broncos suffered a 41-10 blowout loss to the Ravens in week 9.

Denver currently sits 25th in our NFL power rankings and has a 34.5% chance of making the playoffs. They are 7-3 against the spread, with a +2 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 6-4, with their games averaging 37.4 points compared to an average line of 39.8.

Falcons Injury Report

  • Ruke Orhorhoro – Ankle (Out)
  • JD Bertrand – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Bralen Trice – Knee (Out)
  • Troy Andersen – Knee (Questionable)
  • DeMarcco Hellams – Ankle (Out)
  • Harrison Hand – Knee (Out)
  • Micah Abernathy – Knee (Out)
  • James Smith-Williams – Undisclosed (Questionable)
  • Rondale Moore – Knee (Out)
  • Drew Dalman – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Ta’Quon Graham – Pectoral (Questionable)
  • Lorenzo Carter – Concussion (Out)
  • Mike Hughes – Neck (Questionable)

Broncos Injury Report

  • Delarrin Turner-Yell – Knee (Questionable)
  • Drew Sanders – Achilles (Questionable)
  • Tyler Badie – Back (Out)
  • Quinn Bailey – Ankle (Out)
  • Alex Singleton – Torn Acl (Out)
  • Josh Reynolds – Hand (Out)

Falcons Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 11, the Falcons sit 11th in our offensive power rankings. They are 5th in the NFL in passing yards per game, averaging 250.4 yards on 33.5 attempts per game. Kirk Cousins threw for 306 yards in week 10, completing 23 of 38 passes, but he had no touchdowns and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 75. Before week 10, he posted ratings of 144 in week 9 and 145 in week 8.

In the run game, Atlanta ranks 12th in the NFL with 124.7 rushing yards per game. Bijan Robinson rushed for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns on 20 carries in week 10. The Falcons are 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 38.1% success rate, and they rank 17th in red zone conversion percentage.

Broncos Offense Breakdown

denver broncos

Heading into week 11, the Broncos’ offense ranks 27th in our power rankings, averaging 19.7 points per game, which is 19th in the NFL. They sit 24th in yards per game (303.7) and 27th in passing yards per game (186.6) despite being 12th in pass attempts. Denver ranks 16th in rushing attempts and 20th in rushing yards per game, with 117.1. On third down, they rank 22nd with a conversion rate of 35.6% and are 18th in red zone conversions, despite being 8th in red zone attempts. The Broncos have struggled early in games, averaging just 2.0 points in the first quarter, which ranks 27th in the league.

Bo Nix posted a passer rating of 115 in week 10, completing 22 of 30 passes for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception. Courtland Sutton led the team with 6 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown, while Audric Estime rushed for 53 yards on 14 carries. Denver scored all 14 of their points in the second quarter against Kansas City, failing to score in the first, third, and fourth quarters.

Falcons Team Defense

Despite a strong overall effort, the Falcons’ defense struggled to generate pressure in their 20-17 loss to the Saints. They allowed 269 passing yards on just 16 completions, with two touchdowns and 365 total yards. Atlanta’s defense also failed to record a sack and lost the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

Against the run, the Falcons gave up 96 yards on 27 attempts, and they allowed the Saints to convert on 38.5% of their third down attempts.

Broncos Team Defense

In their 16-14 loss to the Chiefs, the Broncos’ defense allowed 243 passing yards on 28 completions. They held Kansas City to 57 rushing yards on just 19 attempts. Although they allowed 300 total yards, Denver’s defense performed well on third downs, allowing just a 43.8% conversion rate.

The Broncos’ defense also managed four sacks in the game and limited the Chiefs to just one touchdown. Despite this, the Broncos couldn’t come up with a win, as the offense struggled to put up points.

Falcons vs Broncos Trends

  • Across their ten previous road games, Atlanta has an ATS mark of 4-6. Their straight up record in these matchups was 4-6 while averaging 20 points per game.
  • When looking at their past ten home matchups, Denver has an ATS record of 6-4 while averaging 18 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
  • Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Falcons have a straight up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-2.
  • As the betting favorite, the Broncos have an ATS record of 3-0 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 3-0.

Falcons vs Broncos Prediction

Our pick vs. the spread in this week 11 matchup between the Falcons and Broncos is to take the Falcons to cover as road underdogs. Even though the Broncos are favored at -2.5, we have them coming out on top by a score of 22-20.

For this one, we are also leaning towards taking the under, with our projections coming in at 42 combined points, just under the O/U line of 44.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.