The Buffalo Bills will face off against the New England Patriots at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th. This matchup is being played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.

The Patriots are +123 on the money line as they host the Bills at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. Buffalo is favored at -146 on the road in this AFC East matchup. The Patriots and Bills are both looking to improve their records in this week 18 matchup. CBS is covering the game, with the Bills at -2.5 on the point spread and the over/under line set at 38 points.

• Date: Sunday, January 5th
• Time: 1:00 ET
• Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
• TV: CBS

Bills vs Patriots

With a 13-3 record, the Bills have a 100% chance of winning the AFC East and making the playoffs. They are on a three-game winning streak, including a 40-14 win over the Jets in week 17. Buffalo was a 10.5-point favorite and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 10-6 this season.

In our NFL power rankings, the Bills are 4th heading into week 18. They are +10.2 in scoring margin and 5-3 on the road this season. They’ll face the Patriots in New England in their final regular season game.

Heading into week 18, the Patriots are on a six-game losing streak, dropping their record to 3-13. New England ranks 27th in our power rankings and has been eliminated from playoff contention. In week 17, they were blown out at home by the Chargers, losing 40-7. The Patriots were 6-point underdogs in that game and failed to cover the spread.

New England is 6-9-1 against the spread this season, having been the underdog in all of their games. Their average scoring margin is -8.4 points per game. The over has hit in 10 of their 16 games, with an average of 41.7 combined points per game.

Bills Injury Report

• Travis Clayton – Shoulder (Out)
• Rasul Douglas – Knee (Probable)
• Josh Allen – Right Elbow/right Shoulder (Probable)
• Spencer Brown – Neck (Probable)
• Dalton Kincaid – Knee (Probable)
• DeWayne Carter – Wrist (Probable)
• Sam Martin – Back (Probable)
• Jordan Phillips – Back (Probable)
• Dawuane Smoot – Wrist (Probable)
• Matt Milano – Biceps/groin (Probable)
• Taylor Rapp – Neck (Questionable)
• Cam Lewis – Shoulder (Questionable)
• Quintin Morris – Shoulder/groin (Probable)
• Dorian Williams – Elbow (Probable)
• Terrel Bernard – Leg/quad (Out)
• Baylon Spector – Calf (Out)
• Tommy Doyle – Undisclosed (Out)
• Shane Buechele – Neck (Out)
• Damar Hamlin – Rib (Questionable)
• Curtis Samuel – Rib (Questionable)

Patriots Injury Report

• JaQuae Jackson – Knee (Out)
• Curtis Jacobs – Head (Questionable)
• Christian Gonzalez – Concussion (Questionable)
• Jaquelin Roy – Foot (Out)
• Jake Andrews – Undisclosed (Out)
• Marcus Jones – Hip (Out)
• Ben Brown – Concussion (Questionable)
• Christian Barmore – Blood Clot (Out)
• Oshane Ximines – Knee (Out)
• Jabrill Peppers – Hamstring (Questionable)
• David Andrews – Shoulder (Out)
• Ja’Whaun Bentley – Pectoral (Out)
• Chukwuma Okorafor – Commissioner Exempt List (Out)

Bills Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 18, the Bills’ offense ranks 3rd in our power rankings and 2nd in the NFL with 31.8 points per game. They are 9th in passing yards (234.1) and rushing yards (131.2) per game, despite ranking 25th in passing attempts. Buffalo is also 6th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage and ranks 4th in red zone attempts, though they are 31st in red zone conversion percentage.

Josh Allen bounced back from his 154-yard, 1-touchdown performance in week 16 against the Patriots, throwing for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns with a passer rating of 104 in week 17 against the Jets. James Cook led the Bills’ rushing attack with 53 yards on 15 carries, while Tyrell Shavers had a 69-yard reception. Buffalo scored 21 points in the 3rd quarter against the Jets and converted all 3 of their red zone opportunities.

Patriots Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 18, the Patriots rank 28th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 16.6 points per game, which is 27th in the NFL. They are 30th in total yards per game (290.9) and rank last in passing yards per game (172.6) despite being 22nd in pass attempts. On the ground, New England is 18th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game, with 118.2. They rank 26th in third-down conversion rate (35%) but are 6th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 17th in red zone attempts.

Rookie QB Drake Maye struggled in week 17, throwing for just 117 yards on 12/22 passing, with one touchdown and no interceptions. The Patriots’ offense only managed 7 points against the Chargers, failing to score in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters. Antonio Gibson led the team with 63 rushing yards on 12 carries, while DeMario Douglas had 4 catches for 46 yards and a touchdown.

Bills Team Defense

Buffalo’s defense came up with two interceptions and four sacks in their most recent game, a 40-14 win over the Jets. Despite allowing 112 rushing yards on just 21 attempts, the Bills held the Jets to 169 yards passing. New York did manage to score two passing touchdowns, but Buffalo’s defense limited them to a completion percentage of just 71.9% on the day.

The Bills’ defense also forced the Jets to a 44.4% third-down conversion rate and held them to 281 total yards. Buffalo’s defense was active in the backfield, coming away with four more tackles for loss and four more quarterback hits than the Jets.

Patriots Team Defense

In their 40-7 loss to the Chargers, the Patriots’ defense struggled to generate pressure, failing to record a sack and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials. The defense allowed 428 yards and 147 rushing yards on 37 attempts. Against the pass, they gave up 281 yards, with the Chargers completing 65% of their passes and converting on 58.8% of their third down attempts. New England also allowed three passing touchdowns.

The Patriots’ inability to slow down the Chargers’ passing game was evident, as Los Angeles averaged 7 yards per pass attempt. New England will need to make significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball to avoid similar results in their next game.

Bills vs Patriots Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Bills have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 28 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last three home games, New England has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 0-3 while averaging 17 points per game.
• The last five games that New England was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 0-5 straight up.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Bills have a straight up record of 9-1. But, their mark vs the spread was just 7-3.

Bills vs Patriots Prediction

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Patriots to cover as home underdogs in this week 18 matchup between the Patriots and Bills. Currently, the point spread lines have the Patriots at +2.5, and we have them not only covering but winning by a score of 23-18.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 38 points, we like the over, with a projected combined score of 41 points.

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All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

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* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.