The Kansas City Chiefs will face off against the Buffalo Bills at 4:25 ET on Sunday, November 17th. This matchup is being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park.

The Bills are favored at -137 on the money line as they prepare to host the Chiefs at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. The Chiefs and Bills will kick off at 4:25 ET on Sunday, November 17th, with CBS handling the television coverage. The Bills are -2.5 point favorites, and the over/under line is set at 45.5 points.

• Date: Sunday, November 17th
• Time: 4:25 ET
• Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park
• TV: CBS

Chiefs vs Bills

The Chiefs narrowly escaped with a 16-14 win over the Broncos in week 10, improving their record to 9-0. Kansas City sits atop the AFC West and conference standings, and our projections give them a 97.1% chance of winning the division and a 100% chance of making the playoffs. Despite their perfect record, the Chiefs rank 4th in our power rankings heading into week 11.

Against the spread, the Chiefs are 4-4-1, with an average scoring margin of +6.4 points per game. They have failed to cover in three straight games, including their week 10 win over Denver, where they were 7-point favorites. Their O/U record is 4-5, with their games averaging 42.2 points compared to an average line of 44.8.

With five straight wins, the Bills sit at 8-2, putting them 1st in the AFC East and 2nd in the conference. Our power rankings have Buffalo 3rd heading into week 11, and they have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and winning the division. After a week 5 loss to the Texans, the Bills have bounced back with wins over the Jets, Titans, Seahawks, Dolphins, and Colts. In week 10, they beat the Colts 30-20, covering the 4.5-point spread. The 50 points in the game went over the 47-point line.

Buffalo has a +9.7 scoring margin and is 6-4 against the spread. As favorites, they are 5-2 ATS and 1-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 6-4, with the over hitting in their last two games. Their games have averaged 48.3 points, with an average O/U line of 46.

Chiefs Injury Report

• BJ Thompson – Chest (Out)
• Jared Wiley – Knee (Out)
• Baylor Cupp – Undisclosed (Out)
• Rashee Rice – Knee (Out)
• Jaylen Watson – Ankle (Out)
• Wanya Morris – Knee (Questionable)
• McKade Mettauer – Knee (Out)
• Skyy Moore – Core Muscle (Out)
• Isiah Pacheco – Ankle (Out)
• Jody Fortson – Knee (Out)
• JuJu Smith-Schuster – Hamstring (Questionable)
• Marquise Brown – Shoulder (Out)
• Charles Omenihu – Knee (Out)

Bills Injury Report

• Travis Clayton – Shoulder (Out)
• Keon Coleman – Wrist (Out)
• Tylan Grable – Groin (Out)
• DeWayne Carter – Wrist (Out)
• Dalton Kincaid – Knee (Questionable)
• Baylon Spector – Calf (Out)
• Shane Buechele – Neck (Out)
• Reggie Gilliam – Hip (Questionable)
• Tommy Doyle – Undisclosed (Out)
• Dawuane Smoot – Wrist (Out)
• Amari Cooper – Wrist (Questionable)
• Matt Milano – Bicep (Questionable)

Chiefs Offense Breakdown

Patrick Mahomes has been putting up solid numbers heading into week 11, throwing for 266 yards (28/42) and a touchdown in week 10 against the Broncos. In week 9, he had 291 yards and 3 touchdowns, and in week 8, he threw for 262 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, the Chiefs’ offensive line has struggled, allowing 4 sacks in each of the last two games.

Kareem Hunt led the Chiefs in rushing in week 10 with 35 yards on 14 carries, and he also led the team in receiving with 7 catches for 65 yards. Travis Kelce had a big game in week 9 with 100 yards on 14 receptions, and he had 90 yards and a touchdown in week 8.

Bills Offense Breakdown

Josh Allen threw for 280 yards in week 10, completing 22 of 37 passes, but he did not record a touchdown and had two interceptions. Before this, he had a passer rating of 95 in week 9 (235 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) and 102 in week 8 (283 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT). James Cook rushed for 80 yards on 19 carries in week 10, and Mack Hollins led the team with 86 receiving yards on 4 catches.

Buffalo is 13th in passing yards per game, averaging 222.5, and they rank 23rd in passing attempts. They are 15th in rushing yards per game, with 120.7, on 27.6 attempts per game. The Bills are 13th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 39.7%.

Chiefs Team Defense

Despite giving up two passing touchdowns, the Chiefs’ defense held the Broncos to just 182 yards passing in their 16-14 win. Denver completed 73.3% of their passes and converted on 53.8% of their third down attempts. The Chiefs defended the run well, allowing just 78 yards on 23 attempts.

Kansas City’s defense also came up with two sacks and limited the Broncos to 260 total yards. Even though they gave up two scores through the air, the Chiefs didn’t allow many big plays in the passing game.

Bills Team Defense

The Bills’ defense came up with three interceptions in their most recent game, helping them to a 30-20 win over the Colts. Despite allowing 121 rushing yards on just 22 attempts, the defense made life difficult for the Colts in the passing game. Buffalo picked up four sacks and held Indianapolis to a 36.4% conversion rate on third down.

Indianapolis did have some success through the air, with 240 passing yards and a 74.3% completion rate. However, Buffalo limited them to just 20 points and made key plays in the passing game to secure the victory.

Chiefs vs Bills Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, Kansas City has an ATS mark of 6-2-2. Their straight up record in these matchups was 9-1 while averaging 22 points per game.
• In their last three home games, Buffalo has averaged 28 points per game while allowing 16. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
• Kansas City has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
• The last ten games that Buffalo was favored, they have an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 9-1 straight up.

Chiefs vs Bills Prediction

Our pick against the spread is to take the Chiefs to cover as road underdogs in this week 11 matchup between the Chiefs and Bills. Right now, the point spread lines have the Chiefs at +2.5, and with our projected final score being 26-19 in favor of the Chiefs, there is some good value in picking them to cover.

As for an over/under pick, we like the under, with a projected combined score of 45 points. The current O/U line is 45.5 points, making the under a good pick in this one.

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All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

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* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.