Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions NFKL Betting Prediction

NFL Commanders vs Detroit Lions Prediction 1/18/2025

The Washington Commanders will face off against the Detroit Lions at 8:00 ET on Saturday, January 18th. This matchup is being played at Ford Field in Detroit.

The Lions are the heavy favorite in their NFC matchup against the Commanders, with their money line odds at -543 compared to Washington’s +407. The game, set for 8:00 ET on Saturday, January 18th at Ford Field in Detroit, is being televised by FOX. The Lions are favored by -9.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 55 points.

  • Date: Saturday, January 18th
  • Time: 8:00 ET
  • Location: Ford Field, Detroit
  • TV: FOX

Commanders vs Lions

washington commanders nfl

Washington finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, putting them 6th in the NFC and 2nd in the NFC East. They ended the year on a five-game winning streak, including a 30-24 win over the Falcons in week 17 and a 23-19 win over the Cowboys in week 18. However, they couldn’t carry that momentum into the playoffs, losing 37-20 to the Buccaneers in the Wild Card round.

Heading into the playoffs, the Commanders ranked 10th in our power rankings and had an average scoring margin of +5.4 points per game. Against the spread, they went 11-6-1, including a 4-2-1 record as underdogs and a 7-4 record as favorites. Their O/U record was 11-7, with their games averaging 51.1 points compared to an average line of 46.2.

Detroit finished the regular season 15-2, putting them 1st in the NFC and our power rankings. The Lions closed the year with three straight wins, including a 31-9 victory over the Vikings in week 18. They were favored by 3 points and easily covered the spread. In week 17, they defeated the 49ers 40-34, and in week 16, they took down the Bears 34-17.

Against the spread, the Lions went 12-4-1, with an average scoring margin of +13.1 points. They were 11-4-1 as favorites and 1-0 as underdogs. Their O/U record was 9-7-1, with their games averaging 53.3 points compared to a 50.5-point line.

Commanders Injury Report

  • Haggai Ndubuisi – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Noah Brown – Kidney (Out)
  • Austin Seibert – Hip (Out)
  • Daron Payne – Finger (Questionable)
  • Colson Yankoff – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • Jordan Magee – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • Norell Pollard – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Kazmeir Allen – Ankle (Out)
  • Tyler Owens – Ankle (Out)

Lions Injury Report

  • Kyle Peko – Pectoral (Out)
  • Kevin Zeitler – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • David Montgomery – Knee (Questionable)
  • John Cominsky – Knee (Out)
  • Marcus Davenport – Elbow (Out)
  • Pat O’Connor – Calf (Questionable)
  • Carlton Davis – Jaw (Out)
  • Michael Badgley – Hamstring (Out)
  • Emmanuel Moseley – Illness (Out)
  • Netane Muti – Shoulder (Out)
  • Khalil Dorsey – Leg (Out)
  • Alim McNeill – Knee (Out)
  • Derrick Barnes – Knee (Out)
  • Aidan Hutchinson – Tibia (Out)
  • Mekhi Wingo – Knee (Out)
  • Terrion Arnold – Foot (Questionable)
  • Ennis Rakestraw Jr. – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • Malcolm Rodriguez – Knee (Out)
  • Antoine Green – Concussion (Out)
  • Connor Galvin – Knee (Out)
  • Nate Lynn – Shoulder (Out)

Commanders Offense Breakdown

Jayden Daniels returned under center for the Commanders in the Wild Card round, throwing for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns on 24/35 passing, with a passer rating of 110. He connected with Dyami Brown 5 times for 89 yards and a touchdown. Daniels avoided turnovers and was sacked just once after being sacked 5 times in week 17. Washington’s run game struggled, with Daniels leading the team with 36 yards on 13 carries.

Washington ranks 5th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 28.2, and 6th in yards per game with 368.6. They are 16th in passing yards per game and 3rd in rushing, averaging 150.1 yards on the ground. The Commanders have been strong on 3rd down, converting 45.6% of their attempts, which ranks 6th in the league.

Lions Offense Breakdown

detroit lions

Jared Goff threw for 231 yards in the Lions’ week 18 win over the Vikings, completing 27 of 33 passes with one touchdown and two interceptions. He had a passer rating of 80, after posting ratings of 132 in week 17 and 136 in week 16. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 139 yards and three touchdowns on 23 carries, while Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team with 77 receiving yards on six catches.

Detroit ranks 2nd in our offensive power rankings, leading the NFL with 33.2 points per game. They are 2nd in passing yards per game (263.2) and 5th in rushing, averaging 146.4 yards on the ground. Despite ranking 16th in pass attempts, the Lions are 4th in 3rd-down conversions and lead the league in red zone attempts.

Commanders Team Defense

In their 23-20 win over the Buccaneers, the Commanders’ defense gave up 183 passing yards on just 15 completions, but two of those completions went for touchdowns. Tampa Bay finished with a completion percentage of 83.3% against Washington. The Commanders defended the run well, allowing just 101 yards on 25 attempts, and overall, they gave up 284 total yards.

On third downs, Washington allowed the Buccaneers to convert 55.6% of their chances. The Commanders’ defense managed only one sack and had a tackles for loss differential of -2.

Lions Team Defense

In their 31-9 win over the Vikings, the Lions’ defense was dominant, holding Minnesota to just 142 passing yards. The Vikings managed only 120 yards rushing on 19 attempts, with a big chunk of that coming on a few runs. Detroit’s defense was tough on third downs, allowing only a 23.1% conversion rate, and they limited the Vikings to just 2-of-12 on third down.

Detroit’s secondary was excellent, allowing just 43.9% completions. They also got to the quarterback, finishing with two sacks and four more quarterback hits than the Vikings. Despite giving up some big runs, the Lions’ defense played a great game.

Commanders vs Lions Trends

  • Although Washington has a straight up record of 4-1 in their last five road games, they have not held up as well vs. the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 22 points per game in these games.
  • Across their ten previous home games, Detroit has an ATS mark of 9-1. Their straight up record in these matchups was 8-2 while averaging 29 points per game.
  • In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Commanders have a straight up record of 4-6 and an ATS mark of 5-4-1.
  • Detroit has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

Commanders vs Lions Prediction

Our pick vs. the spread is to take Washington to cover as road underdogs. Even though they are heavy underdogs at +9.5, we have the Lions pulling off the upset by a score of 34-28.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 55 points, we like the over, projecting a combined score of 62 points.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.