New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins NFL Betting Prediction

NFL England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction 11/24/2024

The New England Patriots will face off against the Miami Dolphins at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 24th. This matchup is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.

The Patriots are +274 on the money line as they face the Dolphins on Sunday, November 24th at 1:00 ET. The Dolphins are the heavy favorite with a money line of -346. This week 12 AFC East matchup is being televised on CBS, and the Patriots are +7 point underdogs on the road at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. The over/under line is set at 46 points.

  • Date: Sunday, November 24th
  • Time: 1:00 ET
  • Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens
  • TV: CBS

Patriots vs Dolphins

new england patriots nfl

With a 3-8 record, the Patriots currently rank 27th in our NFL power rankings and have just a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. New England has gone 1-4 at home and 2-4 on the road, including a 19-3 win over the Bears in week 10. However, they couldn’t build on that victory, falling 28-22 to the Rams in week 11.

Against the spread, the Patriots are 4-6-1, having been underdogs in all of their games so far. They were +4 vs. the Rams but couldn’t cover the spread. Their O/U record is 6-5, with their games averaging 39.1 points (the O/U line for their games has averaged 39.9 points).

After a week 9 loss to the Bills, the Dolphins have bounced back with two straight wins, including a 34-19 victory over the Raiders in week 11. Miami was an 8-point favorite in this game and covered the spread, improving their record to 4-6. They now sit 2nd in the AFC East and 9th in the conference. Our power rankings have them 18th heading into week 12.

We currently give the Dolphins a 14.5% chance of making the playoffs, but they have no shot at winning the division. Against the spread, Miami is 4-6 this season, but they have covered in three straight games. Their O/U record is 4-6, with their games averaging 40.2 points (44.7 O/U line).

Patriots Injury Report

  • JaQuae Jackson – Knee (Out)
  • Caedan Wallace – Ankle (Out)
  • Curtis Jacobs – Head (Questionable)
  • Marte Mapu – Neck (Questionable)
  • Jaquelin Roy – Neck (Questionable)
  • Jake Andrews – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Cole Strange – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Oshane Ximines – Knee (Out)
  • David Andrews – Shoulder (Out)
  • Jabrill Peppers – Commissioner Exempt List (Out)
  • Deatrich Wise Jr. – Foot (Questionable)
  • Chukwuma Okorafor – Commissioner Exempt List (Out)
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley – Pectoral (Out)

Dolphins Injury Report

  • Grayson Murphy – Knee (Out)
  • Tahj Washington – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Patrick McMorris – Foot (Questionable)
  • Tanner Conner – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Grant DuBose – Shoulder (Out)
  • Kion Smith – Knee (Out)
  • Jaelan Phillips – Knee (Out)
  • Cameron Goode – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Tyler Huntley – Right Shoulder (Out)
  • Anthony Schwartz – Knee (Out)
  • Austin Jackson – Knee (Out)
  • Cam Brown – Knee (Out)
  • Blake Ferguson – Personal (Out)
  • Kendall Fuller – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Braxton Berrios – Knee (Out)
  • Alec Ingold – Calf (Questionable)
  • Isaiah Wynn – Undisclosed (Questionable)
  • Bradley Chubb – Knee (Out)

Patriots Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 12, the Patriots sit 25th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 28th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.5, and are 31st in yards per game with 281.2. New England is 13th in passing attempts per game but 30th in passing yards, averaging 165.9. They are 21st in rushing attempts and yards, with 115.3 per game. On 3rd down, they rank 24th with a conversion rate of 35.3% and are 22nd in 1st quarter scoring. However, they are 10th in red zone conversions, scoring on 40.6% of their trips.

Drake Maye threw for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 11, completing 30 of 40 passes, but he did have an interception. Rhamondre Stevenson had 20 carries for 73 yards, and Kendrick Bourne led the team with 5 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots scored 9 points in the 4th quarter against the Rams, converting 6 of 14 on 3rd down and 2 of 5 in the red zone.

Dolphins Offense Breakdown

miami dolphins

Heading into week 12, the Dolphins rank 21st in our offensive power rankings. They are 25th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 18.1, and 22nd in passing yards per game with 197, despite being 14th in passing attempts. On the ground, Miami ranks 11th in rushing yards per game, with 122, on 29.2 attempts per game. They have been strong on 3rd down, converting 42.6% of their attempts, which ranks 9th in the league.

Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a strong performance in week 11, throwing for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Raiders, with a passer rating of 127. Jonnu Smith led the team in receiving with 6 catches for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns, while De’Von Achane rushed for 73 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.

Patriots Team Defense

The Patriots’ defense struggled to generate pressure in their most recent game, failing to record a sack and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials. They gave up 295 passing yards on just 18 completions to the Rams, with four of those completions going for touchdowns. New England allowed the Rams to convert on 25% of their third down chances and finished with 402 total yards.

The Patriots’ run defense allowed 107 yards on 24 attempts, and they gave up an average of 10.9 yards per attempt in the passing game. New England will need to improve their pass rush and coverage in the secondary to prevent big plays in future games.

Dolphins Team Defense

In their 34-19 win over the Raiders, the Dolphins’ defense allowed 328 total yards. They defended the run well, giving up just 60 yards on 16 attempts, but struggled against the pass, allowing 268 yards through the air. Opposing quarterbacks completed 69.8% of their passes against Miami, and the Dolphins gave up two passing touchdowns. Miami’s defense forced one interception and recorded three sacks. On third downs, the Dolphins allowed the Raiders to convert 57.1% of their chances.

Patriots vs Dolphins Trends

  • In their last three road games, New England has averaged 17 points per game while allowing 18. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-2 while going 2-1.
  • Miami has a 2-3 record in their last five home games. In this stretch, they averaged 15 points per game while allowing 19. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
  • The last ten games that New England was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 3-6-1 while going 2-8 straight up.
  • The last five games that Miami was favored, they have an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.

Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction

Our pick vs. the spread for this week 12 matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins is to take the Dolphins to cover as home favorites. The point spread line currently has the Patriots at +7, and with our projected final score being 25-17 in favor of Miami, the Dolphins are the pick to cover.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 46 points, we have a projection of 42 combined points, making the under our recommended play for this Patriots vs. Dolphins matchup.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.