Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Prediction

NFL Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction 1/18/2025

The Houston Texans will face off against the Kansas City Chiefs at 4:30 ET on Saturday, January 18th. This matchup is being played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

The Texans are +364 on the money line as they face the Chiefs at 4:30 ET on Saturday, January 18th. The Chiefs are favored by -8 and have a money line of -472 as they host this AFC matchup on ABC. The over/under line is set at 41.5 points for this divisional round game at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO.

  • Date: Saturday, January 18th
  • Time: 4:30 ET
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
  • TV: ABC

Texans vs Chiefs

houston texans nfl

After finishing the regular season 10-7, the Texans entered the playoffs as the 4th seed in the AFC. They went 5-1 in division play, which was enough to secure the AFC South title. Houston ranked 16th in our power rankings heading into the postseason.

Against the spread, the Texans were 8-9-1 this season, with an average scoring margin of +1.1 points per game. They were 4-6-1 ATS as favorites and 4-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record was 7-10-1, with their games averaging 43.8 points compared to an average line of 44.3.

The Chiefs finished the regular season 15-2, securing the top spot in the AFC. They went 5-1 in division play and 10-2 against conference opponents. Kansas City was perfect at home (8-0) and 7-2 on the road. Heading into the playoffs, they rank 6th in our power rankings.

Against the spread, the Chiefs are 7-9-1, with a +3.5 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 7-10, with the under hitting in their last two games. Their matchups have averaged 41.8 points, compared to an average line of 44.

Texans Injury Report

  • Jamal Hill – Hamstring (Out)
  • Cade Stover – Undisclosed (Out)
  • British Brooks – Knee (Out)
  • LaDarius Henderson – Foot (Out)
  • Jaylon Thomas – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Brevin Jordan – Knee (Out)
  • Dalton Keene – Knee (Out)
  • Zach Thomas – Illness (Out)
  • Jalen Pitre – Shoulder (Out)
  • Teagan Quitoriano – Knee (Questionable)
  • Tank Dell – Knee (Out)
  • Brandon Hill – Knee (Out)
  • Ka’dar Hollman – Knee (Out)
  • Case Keenum – Foot (Out)
  • Jimmie Ward – Foot (Out)
  • Shaq Mason – Knee (Questionable)
  • Stefon Diggs – Knee (Out)

Chiefs Injury Report

  • Chris Jones – Calf (Questionable)
  • Patrick Mahomes – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Jawaan Taylor – Knee (Questionable)
  • Mecole Hardman – Knee (Questionable)
  • Chamarri Conner – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Jack Cochrane – Ankle (Out)
  • Trent McDuffie – Knee (Questionable)
  • Isiah Pacheco – Ribs (Questionable)
  • Jaylen Watson – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Jody Fortson – Knee (Out)
  • Marlon Tuipulotu – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Skyy Moore – Core Muscle (Out)
  • BJ Thompson – Chest (Out)
  • Rashee Rice – Knee (Out)
  • Jared Wiley – Knee (Out)
  • Baylor Cupp – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Spencer Shrader – Right Hamstring (Out)
  • McKade Mettauer – Knee (Out)

Texans Offense Breakdown

Heading into the divisional round, we have the Texans ranked 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are 15th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 22.4, and rank 18th in total yards, with 325.8 per game. Houston ranks 9th in passing attempts but is 20th in passing yards, averaging 210.4 per game. On the ground, they are 21st in rushing attempts and 14th in rushing yards, with 115.4 per game. The Texans are 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage and 15th in red zone conversion rate, despite ranking 10th in red zone attempts.

In the wild card round, Houston scored 32 points against the Chargers, with 10 points in the 3rd quarter and 12 in the 4th. C.J. Stroud threw for 282 yards, completing 22 of 33 passes, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Joe Mixon rushed for 106 yards on 25 carries, and Nico Collins led the team with 7 catches for 122 yards.

Chiefs Offense Breakdown

kansas city chiefs

Heading into the divisional round, the Chiefs rank 14th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 22.6, and they sit 16th in yards per game with 327.6. Kansas City is 13th in passing yards per game (222.4) and 16th in rushing attempts, averaging 26.5 per game. However, they rank 22nd in rushing yards per game, with 105.3. Despite their struggles in the red zone, where they rank 23rd in conversion percentage, the Chiefs are 2nd in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 48.5% success rate.

Patrick Mahomes is questionable for this week due to an ankle injury, but he threw for 320 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 17 against the Steelers. In week 18, Carson Wentz started for the Chiefs, going 10/17 for 98 yards and taking 4 sacks. Kansas City’s offense struggled in that game, with just 27 rushing yards on 11 attempts and converting only 1 of 9 3rd-down attempts.

Texans Team Defense

In their most recent game, the Texans’ defense picked off four passes and held the Chargers to just 12 points in a 32-12 win. Houston’s defense was tough against the run, allowing only 50 yards on 18 attempts. They also recorded four sacks and limited the Chargers to a 27.3% conversion rate on third down.

In the passing game, the Texans allowed just 211 yards and 14 completions, with one touchdown allowed. The defense also won the quarterback hit battle, with four more hits than the Chargers. Despite their success, the Texans’ defense did lose the tackles for loss battle by two.

Chiefs Team Defense

In a 38-0 loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs’ defense allowed four passing touchdowns and gave up 321 yards through the air. The Chiefs struggled to get off the field, as the Broncos converted on 71.4% of their third down attempts. Additionally, the Chiefs allowed an 89.7% completion percentage to Denver.

On top of their struggles against the pass, the Chiefs didn’t generate any sacks and allowed 158 rushing yards on 43 attempts. The Chiefs’ defense also struggled in the secondary, giving up 11.1 yards per pass attempt.

Texans vs Chiefs Trends

  • Across their ten previous road games, Houston has an ATS mark of 4-5-1. Their straight up record in these matchups was 5-5 while averaging 22 points per game.
  • The Chiefs are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
  • Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Texans have a strong record vs the spread going 3-2. Their straight up mark in these contests is 2-3.
  • As the betting favorite, the Chiefs have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 5-0.

Texans vs Chiefs Prediction

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Texans to cover as road underdogs in this matchup. Even though they are the underdog by a line of 8 points, we have the Texans losing 25-23, making the Chiefs our pick to win straight-up.

As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 41.5 points, we think there is value in taking the over, with our projections pointing towards a combined score of 48 points.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.