North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils NCAAB Betting Prediction

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Prediction 3/14/2025

The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-12) travel to face off against the Duke Blue Devils (29-3) on Friday, March 14th. This game will be played at Spectrum Center in Charlotte and televised on ESPN. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 7:00 ET.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils

The Tar Heels Are Coming Off A Win

North Carolina Tar Heels Recent Game/Games

North Carolina improved to 22-12 on the season with a 68-59 win over Wake Forest on Thursday. The Tar Heels were -6.5 favorites going into the game and covered the spread with the victory.

UNC led 33-31 at halftime and held Wake Forest to 28 points in the 2nd half while scoring 35 themselves. The game’s total points of 127 fell well short of the O/U line of 146.5.

The Blue Devils Are Coming Off A Win

Duke Blue Devils Recent Game/Games

Duke improved to 29-3 on the season with a 78-70 win over Georgia Tech on Thursday. The Blue Devils were heavy favorites at -23.5 but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 148, just over the 144.5 O/U line.

After trailing 31-26 at halftime, Duke turned things around in the 2nd half, scoring 52 points while allowing 39.

Tar Heels Offense Breakdown

North Carolina’s offense struggled in their last game, shooting just 33.9% from the field and 32.4% on two-point attempts. They connected on 36.4% of their threes, with RJ Davis hitting 5 of 6 from beyond the arc, finishing with 23 points. Hunter Sallis added 25 points, shooting 47.4% overall.

The Tar Heels made 22 of 27 free throws, shooting 81.5% from the line, and grabbed 11 offensive rebounds. They finished with just 8 assists as a team, scoring 68 points in the game.

Blue Devils Offense Breakdown

Duke put up 78 points in their latest game, shooting 43.5% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 48.4%, with a strong 62.5% shooting inside the arc. However, they struggled from three-point range, hitting just 23.3% (7/30) of their attempts.

At the free-throw line, Duke was nearly automatic, connecting on 89.5% (17/19) of their shots. They also grabbed 11 offensive rebounds and dished out 14 assists. Kon Knueppel led the way with 28 points and 8 assists, while Duncan Powell added 24 points, hitting 6 threes at a 42.9% clip.

Tar Heels Team Defense

North Carolina’s defense was strong, holding their opponent to just 59 points on 33% shooting from the field. They were particularly effective at defending the three-point line, where they allowed only 2 made threes on 22 attempts, a 9% success rate.

Inside the arc, their opponent shot 47%, making 19 of 40 two-point attempts. North Carolina also sent them to the free-throw line 20 times, where they converted 15 free throws, shooting 75%. The Tar Heels gave up 10 offensive rebounds.

Blue Devils Team Defense

North Carolina’s defense was impressive, holding their opponent to just 59 points on 33% shooting from the field. They were particularly effective at defending the three-point line, where they limited the other team to just 2 made threes on 22 attempts, a 9% success rate.

Inside the arc, the Tar Heels gave up 19 two-point baskets on 40 attempts, a 47% shooting percentage. They also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 20 times, where they converted 15 of those attempts, shooting 75% from the stripe. North Carolina allowed 10 offensive rebounds in the game.

Tar Heels vs Blue Devils Trends

  • Across their last five road contests, North Carolina has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 81 points per game.
  • Across the Blue Devils last ten home games, the team averaged 84 points per game while allowing 62. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 8-2, while going 9-1 straight-up.
  • As the betting underdog, the Tar Heels have an ATS mark of just 2-7-1 in their last ten games. North Carolina posted a straight up mark of 1-9 in these matchups.
  • As the betting favorite, the Blue Devils have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 3-0.

Tar Heels vs Blue Devils Prediction

For a pick on the point-spread in this Blue Devils vs. Tar Heels matchup, our bet is to grab the Tar Heels at +7.5. Even though our projections have the Blue Devils winning 76-70, we see the Tar Heels as the play on the point-spread.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 155.5, and our model projects the Tar Heels and Blue Devils to reach a combined total of 146 points. Our bet is on taking the under.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.