Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels NCAAB Betting Prediction

Notre Dame vs North CarolinaPrediction 3/12/2025

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (15-17) travel to face off against the North Carolina Tar Heels (20-12) on Wednesday, March 12th. This game will be played at Spectrum Center in Charlotte and televised on ESPN. Notre Dame is coming off a win in their previous game, while North Carolina is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Duke. Tip-off is set for 2:30 ET.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels

The Fighting Irish Are Coming Off A Win

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Recent Game/Games

Notre Dame improved to 15-17 on the season with a narrow 55-54 win over Pittsburgh on Tuesday, March 11th. The Irish were +4 underdogs going into the game but managed to cover the spread with the victory.

At home, Notre Dame led 25-22 at halftime and scored 30 points in the 2nd half while allowing 32. The combined points of 109 fell well below the O/U line of 135.5.

The Tar Heels Are Coming Off A Win

North Carolina Tar Heels Recent Game/Games

North Carolina’s season record dropped to 20-12 after an 82-69 loss to Duke on Saturday. The Tar Heels were +9.5 point underdogs at home and didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total points of 151 fell short of the 160.5 O/U line.

UNC trailed 43-42 at halftime but managed just 27 points in the 2nd half while allowing 39 points to Duke.

Fighting Irish Offense Breakdown

Notre Dame’s offense struggled in their last game, managing just 55 points on 39.6% shooting from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 43.4%, with a particularly tough night from beyond the arc, hitting only 4 of 20 attempts for 20%.

Inside the arc, they shot 51.5% (17/33), and were efficient at the free-throw line, making 9 of 10 attempts. Jaland Lowe led the team with 17 points, shooting 6 of 18 overall and 1 of 5 from three-point range.

Tar Heels Offense Breakdown

North Carolina struggled offensively in their last game, shooting just 39.1% from the field and 33.3% from three-point range, finishing with 69 points. Their effective field goal percentage was 46.9%, and they managed only 8 offensive rebounds and 8 assists.

RJ Davis led the way with 20 points, hitting 4 of 9 from deep. Kon Knueppel added 17 points, shooting 70% overall and 50% from three. Tyrese Proctor and Sion James each contributed 16 points, with James shooting 75% and grabbing 8 rebounds.

Fighting Irish Team Defense

Notre Dame’s defense held their opponent to just 54 points, with the opposition shooting 39% from the field, hitting 21 of their 53 attempts.

From beyond the arc, the opposing team struggled, making only 4 of their 20 three-point attempts, a 20% shooting performance.

Tar Heels Team Defense

Notre Dame’s defense held their opponent to just 54 points, with a 39% shooting performance from the field. They allowed 17 two-point baskets on 33 attempts, translating to a 51% success rate for their opponent inside the arc.

From three-point range, Notre Dame’s defense was effective, limiting their opponent to just 4 made threes on 20 attempts, a 20% shooting clip. They also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 10 times, where they converted 9 of those attempts.

Fighting Irish vs Tar Heels Trends

  • Across their three previous road games, Notre Dame has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 78 points per game.
  • When looking at their past three matchups at home, North Carolina has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 91 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
  • In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Fighting Irish have a straight up record of 3-7 and an ATS mark of 7-3.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Tar Heels have a straight up record of 9-1. But, their mark vs the spread was just 6-4.

Fighting Irish vs Tar Heels Prediction

For a point-spread bet in this Tar Heels vs. Tar Heels matchup, we’re leaning towards the Tar Heels at -9.5. Although our projections show the Tar Heels winning 76-70, we suggest placing your bet on the Fighting Irish for the point-spread.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 149.5 and given that our model is projecting 146 points between the teams, we like the under.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.