The San Diego State Aztecs (20-9) travel to face off against the North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) on Tuesday, March 18th. This game will be played at UD Arena in Dayton and televised on truT. Both San Diego State and North Carolina will be looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:10 ET.
San Diego State Aztecs vs North Carolina Tar Heels
The Aztecs Look To Bounce Back From A Loss
San Diego State’s season record dropped to 20-9 after a 62-52 home loss to Boise State on Thursday. The Aztecs entered the game as +1.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 114, falling short of the O/U line of 135.
San Diego State led 33-28 at halftime but struggled in the 2nd half, scoring only 19 points while allowing 34.
The Tar Heels Look To Bounce Back From A Loss
North Carolina Tar Heels Recent Game/Games
The Tar Heels dropped to 22-13 on the season after a 74-71 loss to Duke on Friday. Despite being +7 point underdogs, North Carolina kept it closer than expected. The game’s total points of 145 fell short of the 153.5 O/U line.
North Carolina trailed 45-24 at halftime but mounted a strong comeback, outscoring Duke 47-29 in the second half.
Aztecs Offense Breakdown
San Diego State struggled offensively in their last game, scoring just 52 points on 38.3% shooting from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 46.8%, with a 42.3% mark on two-point attempts and 33.3% from beyond the arc, hitting 7 of 21 threes.
Nick Boyd led the way with 20 points, shooting 50% overall and 60% from three (3/5). Alvaro Cardenas added 16 points, though he shot just 30.8% both overall and from three (4/13). The Aztecs managed only 4 offensive rebounds and 11 assists, while shooting 60% from the free-throw line (9/15).
Tar Heels Offense Breakdown
North Carolina put up 71 points in their last game, shooting 47.3% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 50.9%, with a strong 60.5% shooting on two-point attempts. However, they struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 3 of 17 threes for 17.6%.
At the free-throw line, the Tar Heels shot 66.7%, making 16 of 24 attempts. They grabbed 10 offensive rebounds and dished out 13 assists. Ven-Allen Lubin led the way with 20 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 8 of 11 from the field.
Aztecs Team Defense
San Diego State’s defense held their opponent to just 62 points, allowing them to shoot 38% from the field. The Aztecs limited two-point opportunities, with the opposing team making 11 of 26 shots (42%).
From beyond the arc, San Diego State’s defense gave up 7 threes on 21 attempts (33%). They also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 15 times, where they converted 9 (60%). The Aztecs gave up only 4 offensive rebounds.
Tar Heels Team Defense
San Diego State’s defense was on point, holding their opponent to just 62 points on 38% shooting from the field. The Aztecs limited them to 11/26 (42%) on two-point attempts.
From beyond the arc, the opposition shot 7/21 (33%). San Diego State also sent them to the line 15 times, where they hit 9 free throws (60%). The Aztecs gave up only 4 offensive rebounds.
Aztecs vs Tar Heels Trends
- Across their three previous road games, San Diego State has an ATS mark of 0-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 70 points per game.
- Through their last ten home contests, the Tar Heels offense has averaged 74 points per game while allowing an average of 73. North Carolina posted an overall record of 5-5 while going 4-5-1 ATS.
- In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Aztecs have a straight up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 1-4.
- North Carolina has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
Aztecs vs Tar Heels Prediction
For today’s matchup we are recommending to take the Tar Heels to secure the win, with an expected final score of 79-67. When it comes to the spread, we believe they’ll cover at -4.5.
As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 142.5 and our model has the Aztecs and Tar Heels finishing with a combined 146 points. Our pick is to take the over.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:March 18, 2025 North Carolina Tar Heels, San Diego State Aztecs