Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Betting Prediction

NHL Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 3/25/2025

The Pittsburgh Penguins (29-33-10) travel to face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning (40-25-5) on Tuesday, March 25th. This game will be played at Amalie Arena in Tampa and televised on ESPN+. The Penguins are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Lightning are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Jets. Puck drop is set for 7:00 ET.

Penguins vs Lightning

pittsburgh penguins nhl

The Pittsburgh Penguins Are Coming Off A Win

Pittsburgh improved to 29-33-10 with a 3-1 win over the Canadiens. The Penguins covered the puck line as -1.5 goal favorites, and the total of 4 goals fell short of the 6.5 goal line.

Sidney Crosby scored twice for the Penguins, including a goal at 4:03 in the first period. Blake Lizotte added an empty-net goal at 19:15 in the third period to seal the victory.

The Tampa Bay Lightning Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Lightning dropped to 40-25-5 with a 7-4 road loss to the Jets. Tampa Bay held a 2-0 lead early, but Winnipeg responded with seven goals. The total for the game was set at 6.5 goals, and the combined 11 goals easily surpassed that mark.

As underdogs on the puck line, the Lightning failed to cover. They scored their first goal at 13:11 in the first period, but the Jets tied it up by the 5:49 mark in the second. Winnipeg then pulled away with two empty-net goals in the third period.

Pittsburgh Offense Breakdown

Sidney Crosby led the Penguins’ offense with two goals in their 3-1 win over Montreal. He scored his 4th goal of the season in the first period and added his 5th on a power play in the second. Blake Lizotte netted his 2nd goal of the year, sealing the game with an empty-netter.

Pittsburgh took 24 shots on goal and recorded 14 giveaways. Lars Eller picked up his 3rd assist of the season on Lizotte’s goal, while Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson were credited with assists on Crosby’s power-play goal.

Lightning Offense Breakdown

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Brandon Hagel got the Lightning on the board with his 7th goal of the season, followed by Brayden Point’s 8th, which came on a power play. Mitchell Chaffee added his 4th goal, and Nikita Kucherov netted his 10th in the third period.

Tampa Bay fired 30 shots on goal and recorded 8 giveaways. The Lightning had four assists, with Jake Guentzel picking up his 8th of the season and Nick Paul adding his 7th.

Pittsburgh Team Defense

Pittsburgh’s defense will look to build on a strong performance, having allowed just 1 goal to Montreal in their previous game. Alex Nedeljkovic made 25 saves with a 96.2% save percentage, and the defense finished with 5 takeaways and 19 hits. The only goal they allowed came at 5:32 in the 3rd period.

Tampa Bay Team Defense

Tampa Bay’s defense will need to improve after allowing 7 goals in their last game against Winnipeg. The Lightning gave up the first goal just 4:03 into the 3rd period, and two more late in the 3rd, both empty-netters. Goalie Jonas Johansson made 27 saves with a save percentage of 84.4%.

Penguins vs Lightning Trends

  • Across their last three road contests, Pittsburgh has a 2-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2, while averaging 2 goals per game.
  • Across the Lightning last three home games, the team averaged 2 goals per game while allowing 3. Their record vs the puck line in these contests was 1-2, while going 2-1 straight-up.
  • Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Lightning have gone 6-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 3-7.
  • In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Penguins have a straight up record of 2-3 and an puck line mark of 1-4.

Penguins vs Lightning Prediction

For a moneyline bet, we have the Lightning as the likely winner. However, with the current odds at -264, I’d suggest considering a puck line bet, as our predictions have the Lightning winning by more than one goal.

For a puck line pick, we are going with the Lightning to win and cover. Look for the Lightning to win this one by multiple goals over the Penguins.

For those looking at the over/under line set at 6 goals, our expectation is that this game will surpass that mark, and we suggest making a bet on the over.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.