Alabama Crimson Tide vs North Carolina Tar Heels NCAAB Betting Prediction

Alabama Crimson Tide vs North Carolina Prediction 3/28/2024

The Alabama Crimson Tide (23-11) travel to face off against the North Carolina Tar Heels (29-7) on Thursday, March 28th. This game will be played at Arena in Los Angeles and televised on CBS. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 9:39 ET.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs North Carolina Tar Heels

The Alabama Crimson Tide Are Coming Off A Win

Alabama enters this game as an underdog, a role they have not been in often this season. They have been the underdog in just eight of their 34 games, going 1-7 in those games.

On the road, the Crimson Tide have gone just 7-8 this season, compared to their 16-4 record at home. Over their last 10 road games, they have gone 6-4.

As the underdog this season, Alabama has gone just 2-6 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Crimson Tide are 2-8 ATS. On the road, Alabama is 6-9 vs. the spread this year and they have gone just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Alabama’s over/under record for the season is 26-9 and the average over/under line in their games is 164.1. Today’s over/under line of 173.5 is higher than the average scoring in their games of 172.2. So far, 17 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line.

The North Carolina Tar Heels Are Coming Off A Win

North Carolina enters this game as the favorite, as they have been in 34 of their 36 games this season. They have gone 28-6 in those games. The Tar Heels are 21-3 at home this season, and they have won their last two games at home.

Overall, North Carolina has gone 29-7 this season, and they have won two games in a row. They have gone 20-4 in Atlantic Coast Conference games, and they are 9-3 in non-conference games this season.

North Carolina has an ATS record of 21-16 this season, including a mark of 13-11 at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Tar Heels are 6-4 vs. the spread.

North Carolina’s over/under record this season is 19-18 and the average scoring total in their games is 151.4 points. Today’s over/under line of 173.5 is higher than the average OU line in their games (151.6). So far, 34 of their games have finished with less points than today’s line. In their last three games, their over/under record is 3-0 and the average scoring total is 154 points.

Alabama Offense Breakdown

In contrast to their season average of 90.8 points per game, the Alabama had a below average performance. They scored 72 points against Grand Canyon and had a field goal percentage of 36.9%. One area that the Alabama offense has been good this season is getting to the line. Currently, they are 22nd in free-throw attempts per contest. Overall, they have a field goal percentage of 47%.

Mark Sears (G) 21.1 4.0 4.1
Aaron Estrada (G) 13.4 5.2 4.5
Grant Nelson (F) 12.0 5.7 1.7

North Carolina Offense Breakdown

North Carolina’s offense is coming off a good game, putting up 85 points vs. Michigan State. Overall, they hit 46.7% of their shots from the field and went 19/23 from the free-throw line. The team’s top scorer is RJ Davis, who comes into today’s matchup with an average of 21.4, while Armando Bacot also maintains a PPG average of 14.1 leading up to the game.

RJ Davis (G) 21.4 3.8 3.5
Armando Bacot (F) 14.1 10.2 1.6
Harrison Ingram (F) 12.1 9.0 2.2

Alabama Team Defense

Facing North Carolina, Alabama aims for a better defensive performance, given their current average of 81.5 points allowed per game (353rd). Against Grand Canyon in their most recent game, the Alabama defense gave up a total of 61 points while allowing Grand Canyon to hit 36% of their shots.

North Carolina Team Defense

Coming into today’s game, the North Carolina defense is giving up an average of 69.8 points per contest. North Carolina’s three-point defense is currently 139th in the country at 7.0 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 40.9% of their shots vs. North Carolina.

Crimson Tide vs Tar Heels Trends

  • In their last three games away from home, the Crimson Tide have a straight up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 95 points per game in these contests.
  • In their last three home games, North Carolina has averaged 72 points per game while allowing 69. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
  • The last three games that Alabama was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 0-3 while going 0-3 straight up.
  • The last ten games that North Carolina was favored, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 9-1 straight up.

Crimson Tide vs Tar Heels Prediction

We’re putting our money on the Tar Heels to win, and have the projected score sitting at 79-66. We also like them to cover the spread, so our recommendation is to bet on the Tar Heels at -4.5.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 173.5, and our model predicts the Crimson Tide and Tar Heels to score a combined 145 points. We recommend betting on the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.