California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs NCAAB Betting Prediction

California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs Prediction 1/29/2025

The California Golden Bears (11-9) travel to face off against the SMU Mustangs (15-5) on Wednesday, January 29th. This game will be played at Moody Coliseum in Dallas and televised on ACCN. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 9:00 ET.

California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs

The Golden Bears Are Coming Off A Win

California Golden Bears Recent Game/Games

California improved to 11-9 on the season with a 98-94 win over Miami on Saturday. The Golden Bears were -8.5 point favorites going into the game, but they didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 192, well over the O/U line of 150.5.

Cal led 47-39 at halftime but allowed Miami to score 40 points in the 2nd half while only putting up 32 points themselves. Despite the win, the Bears will need to tighten up their defense moving forward.

The Mustangs Are Coming Off A Win

SMU Mustangs Recent Game/Games

SMU improved to 15-5 on the season with a 63-57 road win over NC State on Saturday. The Mustangs were -3 favorites going into the game and covered the spread.

SMU led 34-26 at halftime and held on for the win, allowing 31 points in the 2nd half while scoring 29. The game’s total points of 120 fell well short of the O/U line of 146.5.

Golden Bears Offense Breakdown

California’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 98 points with a field goal percentage of 49.2%. They were particularly effective inside, hitting 62.9% of their two-point attempts, while their effective field goal percentage stood at 57.1%.

From beyond the arc, the Golden Bears shot 32.1%, connecting on 9 of 28 attempts. At the free-throw line, they made 27 of 36 shots, good for 75%. Jeremiah Wilkinson and Matthew Cleveland each scored 30 points, with Cleveland hitting 3 of 5 threes at 60%.

Mustangs Offense Breakdown

SMU’s offense put up 63 points in their last game, shooting 43.4% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 49.1%. They connected on 37.5% of their three-point attempts, going 6-for-16 from deep, and were nearly perfect from the free-throw line, hitting 11 of 12 for 91.7%.

Samet Yigitoglu led the way with 20 points and 7 rebounds, shooting 61.5% from the floor. Marcus Hill added 14 points, while Kario Oquendo chipped in 13 points and 7 boards. Matt Cross contributed 11 points and 10 rebounds, despite shooting just 25% from three-point range.

Golden Bears Team Defense

Despite California’s defensive struggles, they managed to put up 94 points in their last game, shooting 49% from the field. They were effective inside, hitting 62% of their two-point attempts (22/35).

From beyond the arc, California shot 32%, making 9 of their 28 three-point tries. They also got to the free-throw line 36 times, converting 27 of those attempts for 75%.

Mustangs Team Defense

California’s defense struggled, giving up 94 points while allowing their opponent to shoot 49% from the field. Inside the arc, they allowed 62% shooting, with the other team hitting 22 of 35 two-point attempts.

From three-point range, California’s opponent made 9 of 28 shots, good for 32%. The Golden Bears also sent the other team to the line 36 times, where they converted 27 free throws, a 75% rate. California gave up 10 offensive rebounds in the game.

Golden Bears vs Mustangs Trends

  • When looking at their past five road matchups, California has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 70 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
  • Across their last five home contests, SMU has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 80 points per game.
  • In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Golden Bears have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.
  • Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, SMU has an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 9-1 straight up.

Golden Bears vs Mustangs Prediction

For today’s matchup we are recommending to take the Mustangs to secure the win, with an expected final score of 80-66. When it comes to the spread, we believe they’ll cover at -12.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 151, and our model predicts the Golden Bears and Mustangs to score a combined 146 points. We recommend betting on the under.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.