Before I get into my picks, let me address the elephant in the room. Last Saturday was a disaster of biblical proportions. As bad as it was, we were only a few heartbreaking plays away from a very different day. I’m not going to get into all of them because, frankly, that would only make me furious. But we’re bouncing back strong today. I believe it was Rocky Balboa who said, “It’s not about how many bets you win, but how many bets you lose and keep moving forward.” Or something like that. Anyway, let’s get into it.
Liberty -6.5 vs. Syracuse
Hopefully you’re reading this early because our first lock of the week is kicking off Friday at 7. I am going to keep betting Liberty on these small spreads. The Flames are on an absolute tear dating back to last season. They have covered the spread in 10 straight games, and none of those have even been close. The closest they have come to not covering is earlier this year when they beat Troy by eight as three-point favorites. Liberty has also covered their last five on the road. Syracuse has covered two of their three games this season, but those were both against bad teams in Ohio and Albany. The only good team they have faced this season is Rutgers, and they lost that one by 10. I love the Flames to keep their cover streak going this week against a mediocre ‘Cuse team. Back Liberty.
Rutgers +21 vs. Michigan
Michigan is getting a lot of love here for a team that has not beat anyone worth a damn this season. Granted they have dominated those games, but Western Michigan, Washington, and Northern Illinois don’t exactly hold a candle to the Wolverines. Rutgers hasn’t really run the gauntlet either, but they have played teams closer to their skill level and they have looked very solid. QB Noah Vedral has thrown for 600 yards with four touchdowns and zero picks so he will be the best QB Michigan has faced this season. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, as well as 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. Michigan, on the other hand, has failed to cover in their last five conference matchups. I like Rutgers to keep this one relatively close against a Michigan team who hasn’t played anyone. Roll with the Scarlet Knights.
Western Kentucky +9 vs. Indiana
I love WKU in this one because of their high powered offense. The Hilltoppers are led by QB Bailey Zappe who already has 859 yards on the season with 10 touchdowns and only two picks. Indiana’s defense has struggled so far this year, giving up 38 points to Cincinnati and 34 to Iowa-two teams who aren’t exactly offensive powerhouses. They will have their hands full on the road against one of the best offenses in the country. Western is 4-1 ATS in their last five and 8-2 straight up in their last 10 at home. I think the Hilltoppers will give Indiana all they can handle in this one. They might just send the Hoosiers home with an L.
SMU-TCU O64 Mississippi State +2.5 vs. LSU Texas Tech +7.5 vs. Texas UTSA-Memphis U68 Wyoming -29.5 vs. UConn NC State +10 vs. Clemson Buffalo -13.5 vs. Old Dominion Oregon State +11 vs. USC
We’re bouncing back strong this weekend, boys and girls. Your bookie won’t know what hit him.
Crush Your Bookie CFB Week 4 Sports Bet Tracking Sheet
* All odds provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.