13-4-1 on our Locks/Best Bets so Far this Year
We’re coming off yet another 4-4 week which makes it two weeks in a row we finished at .500. The locks, however, continue to stay hot. They went 2-1 last week to bring the season record to 13-4-1. Vegas took a beating last week so we’re going to be nerds on some of these picks and take some less than sexy lines. Let’s get into it.
New England Patriots -7 vs. New York Jets
I know I said we were going to be nerds, but we’ll start off by keeping it simple. New England may be struggling right now, but they’re still the Patriots and they dominate the Jets. New England has only beaten the Jets by less than seven points twice since 2015. They are also 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games against a team with a losing record. The Jets, however, tend to struggle against losing teams, covering just twice in their last ten games versus a squad with a sub .500 record. Bill Belichick doesn’t lose to rookie quarterbacks. New England needs a get-right game and this is the perfect spot for one. Back the Pats.
Carolina Panthers -3 vs. New York Giants
It’s usually wise to fade both New York teams so that’s exactly what we’re doing this week. The Panthers have fallen back to earth after their 3-0 start, but they have played very well against bad offenses. The Giants are still plagued with injuries, mainly on offense, so Carolina should have no problem shutting them down. New York will get QB Daniel Jones back this week but will likely still be without Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and LT Andrew Thomas. That’s nearly every key piece of their offense. Carolina has been slipping lately but their defense should still be able to dominate this depleted offense. The G men tend to struggle in the Meadowlands, going a dismal 9-26 SU in their last 35 games at home. The Panthers, on the other hand, thrive on the road. They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. With all of New York’s injuries, it’s smart to keep fading them. Back the Panthers with confidence.
Washington FT +8.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
I told you we would play the numbers this week. This is about as unsexy as they come but the numbers back it up. Over the last 104 games, teams who are 4-1 or 5-1 ATS to start the year are 36-65-3 ATS in their next game. And wouldn’t you know, the Packers are 5-1 ATS, while the Football team is 1-5. When a team is an underdog against one of those 5-1 teams, they are 49-20-1 ATS in the last 70 matchups. Washington is also 4-2 ATS in their last six against Green Bay. The Packers have big games coming up against the Cardinals, Chiefs, and Seahawks. This could be a let down spot against a scrappy team in the Football Team. Trust the numbers. Take Washington.
The rest of the bunch:
Miami Dolphins +2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons Philadelphia Eagles +3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders Houston Texans +17.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals LA Rams -15 vs. Detroit Lions Indianapolis Colts +4 vs. San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks +5.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
We’re shaking off the rust of back to back 4-4 weeks. The numbers don’t lie: Underdogs are the play. It’s time to get back on the right track with these winners. Pray for your bookie.
CYB NFL Week 7 Tacking Sheet
* All odds provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.