Duke vs NC State NCAAB Betting prediction

Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina State Prediction 3/4/2024

The Duke Blue Devils (23-6) travel to face off against the North Carolina State Wolfpack (17-12) on Monday, March 4th. This game will be played at PNC Arena in Raleigh and televised on ESPN. Duke is coming off a win in their previous game, while North Carolina State is looking to get back on track from a loss to the North Carolina. Tip-off is set for 7:00 ET.

Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina State Wolfpack

The Duke Blue Devils Are Coming Off A Win

With a 23-6 record and a two-game win streak, Duke enters this game as the favorite. The Blue Devils have gone 22-4 when favored this season and 16-2 at home. On the road, they are 6-4 compared to their +17.4 average margin at home.

Over their last 10 road games, Duke has gone 6-4, including a 3-2 record over their last five. In their most recent game, the Blue Devils beat Virginia, 73-48.

When looking at Duke’s ATS record this season, they are currently 16-12. In their 26 games as the favorite, they have gone 16-10 vs. the spread. On the road, the Blue Devils have an ATS mark of 4-6 this year and have gone 3-6 in their last 10 road games vs. the spread.

This season, the over/under record for Duke games is 12-15-1. The average scoring total in their games this season is 147.7 points, which is higher than the average OU line of 146.5. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 141 points and their OU record in their last 10 games is 2-8.

The North Carolina State Wolfpack Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

North Carolina State enters this game as a 6.5-point underdog, and they are 2-9 this season when not favored. The Wolfpack have gone 12-4 at home this season, and they have an average scoring margin of +10.1 points per game.

Over their last 10 games at home, North Carolina State has gone 6-4, and they are coming off a 79-70 loss to North Carolina. So far this season, they have gone 17-12 overall, including a 9-9 mark in Atlantic Coast Conference play.

As the underdog this season, NC State has gone 5-5-1 vs. the spread and is 13-15-1 overall. Their home ATS record is 8-8 and over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Wolfpack are 5-4-1.

Today’s over/under line of 148 is very close to the average over/under line in North Carolina State’s games this season (147.2). Their over/under record for the year is 17-11-1. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 157 points, and their over/under record over their last 10 games is 6-4.

Duke Offense Breakdown

In contrast to their season average of 80.3 points per game, the Duke had a below average performance. They scored 73 points against Virginia and had a field goal percentage of 49.2%. For the season, the Duke offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA with a field goal percentage of 48%. So far, they have hit 54% of their looks from inside the arc, and are averaging 8.4 made three’s per contest.

Kyle Filipowski (C) 16.8 8.3 2.9
Jeremy Roach (G) 14.1 2.5 3.0
Jared McCain (G) 13.3 4.9 1.7

North Carolina State Offense Breakdown

In their recent matchup, the North Carolina State offense ended with 70 points against North Carolina. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 41.7% and made 9 threes. The team’s top scorer is DJ Horne, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 17.6, while Jayden Taylor also carries a PPG average of 12.2 into the game.

DJ Horne (G) 17.6 3.3 2.3
Jayden Taylor (G) 12.2 3.7 1.2
D.J. Burns (F) 11.6 3.9 2.5

Duke Team Defense

At present, the Blue Devils’ defense is nationally ranked 49th, allowing 66.8 points per game. In their previous game vs. Virginia, the Cavaliers finished with a field goal percentage of 49% and a total of 48 points vs. Duke.

North Carolina State Team Defense

At present, the Wolfpack’s defense is nationally ranked 178th, allowing 72.3 points per game. North Carolina State’s three-point defense is currently 131st in the country at 7.0 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 44.2% of their shots vs. North Carolina State.

Blue Devils vs Wolfpack Trends

  • When looking at their past three road matchups, Duke has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 79 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
  • Across their ten previous home games, North Carolina State has an ATS mark of 5-4-1. Their straight up record in these matchups was 4-6 while averaging 72 points per game.
  • The last ten games that North Carolina State was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 5-4-1 while going 2-8 straight up.
  • The last ten games that Duke was favored, they have an ATS mark of 8-2 while going 10-0 straight up.

Blue Devils vs Wolfpack Prediction

Entering the game as underdogs with a spread of +6.5, the Wolfpack is our point spread pick. Our projections not only see them covering the spread but also indicate a solid chance of an outright victory. This is a good choice for those looking for a higher moneyline payout.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 148, and our model projects the Blue Devils and Wolfpack to reach a combined total of 142 points. Our bet is on taking the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.