Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide NCAA Betting Prediction

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Prediction 2/3/2024

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (14-7) travel to face off against the Alabama Crimson Tide (15-6) on Saturday, February 3rd. This game will be played at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa and televised on SECN. Alabama is coming off a win in their previous game, while Mississippi State is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Ole Miss. Tip-off is set for 8:30 ET.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide

The Mississippi State Bulldogs Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Mississippi State is 14-7 this season and 3-5 in Southeastern Conference games. The Bulldogs are 4-5 on the road compared to 10-2 at home.

As the underdog, Mississippi State has gone 2-3 this season, and they are 2-3 in their last five games away from home. Their average scoring margin on the road is +3.3.

Mississippi State’s ATS record this season is 10-10-1, including a 4-5 mark on the road. As the underdog, the Bulldogs have gone 2-3 vs. the spread this year. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Mississippi State is 6-4 ATS.

This season, the over/under record in Mississippi State games is 9-11-1, and today’s line of 158.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (139.3). So far, 17 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 146 points.

The Alabama Crimson Tide Are Coming Off A Win

Alabama enters tonight’s game as the favorite, as they have been in 16 of their 21 games this season. The Crimson Tide have gone 14-2 in those games, and they have a scoring margin of +24.6 points per game at home this season.

Overall, Alabama is 15-6 this season, and they have won three straight games. In their last outing, the Crimson Tide defeated Georgia by a score of 85-76. Over their last 10 games at home, Alabama has gone 9-1.

Alabama has been a solid bet this season with a 13-8 ATS record. They have been particularly strong at home, going 9-2 vs. the spread in Tuscaloosa. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Crimson Tide have gone 7-3 ATS.

Alabama’s over/under record for the season is 14-7 and the average scoring in their games is 165 points. Today’s over/under line of 158.5 is lower than the average OU line of 160 points in their games this year. So far, 13 of their games have had a higher scoring total than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, their over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring in those games is 170 points.

Mississippi State Offense Breakdown

Coming off their recent game, the Mississippi State offense tallied 82 points in a matchup against Ole Miss. Their field goal percentage for the game was 53.6%, and they made 8 threes. Coming into the game, the Bulldogs offense has strugled with their outside shot this season, hitting threes at a rate of just 31%. On average, they get up 23.4 three-point attempts per game and are averaging 14.3 made free-throws.

Josh Hubbard (G) 15.2 2.3 1.7
Cameron Matthews (F) 9.6 7.0 2.8
Shakeel Moore (G) 8.1 2.4 2.0

Alabama Offense Breakdown

In their most recent game, the Crimson Tide’s offense tallied 85 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 89.4 points per game. The top scorer for the Crimson Tide was Mark Sears with 23 points, while Grant Nelson also chipped in with 20 points.

Mark Sears (G) 20.1 4.0 3.9
Aaron Estrada (G) 12.7 5.0 4.0
Grant Nelson (F) 12.6 5.9 1.9

Mississippi State Team Defense

So far this season, the Mississippi State defense has been performing well, ranking 63rd in the country at 66.9 points allowed per contest. In their most recent game, the Mississippi State defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Ole Miss knocked down 12 three-pointers on their way to 86 points.

Alabama Team Defense

Coming into today’s game, the Alabama defense is giving up an average of 75.6 points per contest. On average, opposing teams are hitting 7.4 threes per game vs. Mississippi State. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 32.9%.

Bulldogs vs Crimson Tide Trends

  • Across the Bulldogs last five road games, the team averaged 72 points per game while allowing 76. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-4, while going 1-4 straight-up.
  • In their last three home games, Alabama has averaged 79 points per game while allowing 80. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
  • Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Bulldogs have a straight up record of 2-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-3.
  • In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Crimson Tide have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-0 in these scenarios.

Bulldogs vs Crimson Tide Prediction

For a point-spread bet in this Crimson Tide vs. Crimson Tide matchup, we’re leaning towards the Crimson Tide at -8.5. Although our projections show the Crimson Tide winning 75-70, we suggest placing your bet on the Bulldogs for the point-spread.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 158.5, and our model predicts the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide to score a combined 145 points. We recommend betting on the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.