The Boston Red Sox (18-14) travel to face off against the Minnesota Twins (17-13) on Friday, May 3rd. This game will be played at Target Field in Minneapolis and televised on NESN. The Twins are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Red Sox are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Giants. First pitch is set for 8:10 ET.
Red Sox vs Twins
The Red Sox will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Giants with a 3-1 loss. This was Boston’s 2nd straight loss, as they also dropped the final game of the series vs. San Francisco. Going into the game, the Red Sox were the slight favorite at -122 on the money line.
Josh Winckowski got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up one earned run on two hits. Zack Kelly came out of the bullpen and took the loss. The Red Sox also wasted a good game from Jonathan Arauz, who went 3 for 3 with a run scored.
Boston is on the road today vs. the Twins, and they are 18-14 overall, putting them 3rd in the AL East. Currently, they trail the Orioles by 2.5 games and are 0-3 in divisional games this year. The Red Sox have been good as the favorite this year, going 9-5, and they are 9-9 as the underdog. So far, they have been really good as the road favorite, going 5-0.
The Red Sox have won two straight series, taking two games from the Giants in their most recent series. At home, the Red Sox are 7-9 compared to 11-5 on the road. Heading into today’s game, they are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
When the Red Sox are on the road, they have been a good bet to cover the run line, going 12-4. Their average run margin in road games is +2.7, and their overall run line record is 18-14. They have been a better bet to cover the run line as an underdog, going 13-5, compared to 5-9 as a favorite.
So far this season, the Red Sox have played 29 games, and their average combined runs per game is 8.2. Their over/under record is 13-16, and the average over/under line in their games has been 8 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 7-3, and 25% of their games have had higher lines. Their current under streak is at 3 games.
Tanner Houck Gets The Start For The Red Sox
Through six starts, Tanner Houck has a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 1.60. His WHIP for the season is currently .92. Houck has made one complete game shutout this year and has turned in five quality starts. The last time he pitched, he went 6 2/3 innings and gave up one earned run on four hits. Houck finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Opponents are batting .207 this season off the right-hander. His ERA on the road is 1.0 compared to 2.57 at home.
Red Sox Offense Breakdown
Over his last eight games, Rafael Devers has been on fire for the Red Sox, going 13/29 with six runs scored and one home run. This has pushed his season average up to .261, and he is currently on an eight-game hitting streak. Tyler O’Neill has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 9/29 in his last seven games, including two homers. O’Neill is batting .309 for the season and leads the Red Sox with nine home runs.
As a team, the Red Sox are averaging 4.7 runs per game and have been a little better on the road this season, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 6th in the league in home runs and have the 8th best team batting average in the league. Boston comes into the game with a team OPS of .736, which is 7th in the league.
The Twins’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the White Sox, closing out their series with a 10-5 win. After allowing two runs to the White Sox in the bottom of the first, the Twins responded with a run of their own and added another three runs in the 3rd inning. Minnesota went on to close out the 4th with another three runs.
Bailey Ober put together a good start for the Twins, going six innings and giving up just four runs on six hits. He only had three strikeouts in the outing and got the win.
Minnesota is riding a 10-game winning streak, and they are 17-13 overall, putting them 4th in the AL Central. The Twins are 2.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. So far, they have gone 12-7 against other teams in the AL Central.
At home, the Twins are 6-6 this year and have gone 11-7 on the road. As the favorite, Minnesota is 15-5 this year, and they are 2-8 as the underdog. Minnesota has won four straight games at home, and they are 4-4-2 in series this year, having won three straight series overall.
Minnesota has been a solid run line bet this season, going 15-15 overall. They’ve been especially good on the road, going 11-7. At home, they are just 4-8. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 11-9 as the favorite this season. Their average run differential in wins is +3.6, while it’s -3.6 in losses.
The Twins’ over/under record for the season is 15-14, and their average over/under line is 8 runs. However, when the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record is 2-7. The Twins have gone over the total in their last two games, and their combined run average for the season is 9 runs per game.
Chris Paddack Gets The Start For The Twins
Chris Paddack is getting the start for the Twins at home against the Red Sox. He has been solid in his first two starts, picking up a win in each outing. He struck out 10 in his last start and has 2 home runs allowed on the year.
Twins Offense Breakdown
Minnesota’s offense has been one of the league’s best so far, averaging 4.8 runs per game (10th) and coming in as the league’s 9th ranked home run hitting team. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. The Twins’ team batting average of .238 is 12th in the league, and they have the 3rd best Isolated Power (ISO) in the league.
Willi Castro has been swinging a hot bat for the Twins of late, going 16/35 in his last eight games with a homer and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .270 with two homers. Ryan Jeffers has also been a key run producer for the Twins, as his 19 RBIs are the best mark on the team and 10th in the league. He is also 2nd on the team with five homers and is batting .300.
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction
Our prediction for this Red Sox and Twins matchup is to take the Red Sox on the money line, with the payout being -108. We have the Red Sox winning this one by a score of 6-5.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Tanner Houck finishing with eight strikeouts, which is the highest projection among all starters. As for Chris Paddack, we have him finishing with six K’s, which is seventh best among starters.
Offensively, the Red Sox lineup is projected to finish with 10 team strikeouts, which is the third most in the league today. As for the Twins, they are projected to finish with nine team strikeouts, which is the fourth most.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
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Last updated:May 3, 2024 Red Sox, Twins