The Milwaukee Brewers (36-23) travel to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies (41-19) on Monday, June 3rd. This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and televised on BSWI. The Brewers are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Phillies are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Cardinals. First pitch is set for 5:40 CT.
Brewers vs Phillies
The Brewers’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the White Sox, closing out their series with a 6-3 win. After allowing two runs to the White Sox in the top of the first, the Brewers responded with four runs of their own. Milwaukee went on to add another two runs in the 2nd inning.
Starting for the Brewers was Freddy Peralta, who picked up the win. He went five innings, giving up three earned runs, and issued just one walk. The Brewers’s bullpen was excellent, as Enoli Paredes closed things out in the 9th, and the Brewers were at -346 on the money line going into the game.
Milwaukee is on a five-game winning streak, and they lead the NL Central with a record of 36-23. The Brewers hold a seven-game lead over the Cardinals for the division lead. Their record in the NL Central is 16-8 this season.
At home, the Brewers have gone 18-10 this season, and they are 18-13 on the road. As the road underdog, the Brewers have put together a mark of 13-7 this season. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 11-6-2, and they have won three straight series.
When the Brewers are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 19-12. They have covered the run line in three straight road games and are 21-8 as an underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.6 runs per game, while their average run margin in losing games is -2.9 runs per game.
The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the Philadelphia Phillies, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for their games this season is 9.2 runs per game, and their over/under record is 34-24. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 17-10. So far this season, 42.4% of their games have had lower over/under lines than 8.5 runs.
Bryse Wilson Gets The Start For The Brewers
Bryse Wilson will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Cubs, as he gets the start for the Brewers today. Against the Cubs, he went just 4 innings, giving up 3 earned runs, 4 total runs, and 2 homers. Wilson finished with a no-decision in the outing. Before that, he had picked up the win in back-to-back outings. Wilson’s ERA for the season is 3.19, and he has a record of 3-1. Looking at his numbers, Wilson has a WHIP of 1.23 and is averaging 7.31 strikeouts per nine innings.
Brewers Offense Breakdown
For the season, the Brewers are averaging 5.2 runs per game, which is 2nd in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.6 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s top team in terms of on-base percentage and have the best batting average in the league. Milwaukee also comes into the game with the league’s best BABIP.
William Contreras and Willy Adames have been the Brewers’ top home run hitters this season, with both players having gone deep nine times. Contreras is batting .316 for the season and has driven in 44 runs, which is 5th in the league. Adames has been even better of late, going 14/38 in his last 10 games with two homers and 12 RBIs.
Philadelphia is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 5-4 loss to the Cardinals, Taijuan Walker was excellent on the mound, allowing just two runs while pitching five innings. They also got a big offensive performance from Nick Castellanos, going 2/5 with a run scored.
Gregory Soto took the loss out of the bullpen for the Phillies, as Philadelphia allowed a run in the top of the 10th to blow their lead. Heading into this game, the Phillies were favored at -139 at home.
With a record of 41-19, the Phillies lead the NL East by 6.5 games over the Braves. So far, they have gone 11-5 in divisional matchups. The Phillies have been really tough at home this season, going 24-9, and they are 17-10 on the road.
Philadelphia has been really good in night games this year, going 26-9. As the favorite, the Phillies are 36-15 and 23-7 when favored at home. They have an overall series record of 12-4-4 this year.
Looking back, the Phillies took two of three from the Cardinals. Heading into today’s game, they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
When the Phillies win, they win big, with an average run margin of +3.9 runs per game. That has led to a run line record of 33-27. They have been especially good at home, going 18-15 on the run line, compared to 15-12 on the road. As the favorite, they have gone 28-23 on the run line, while as the underdog, they are 5-4. Their overall run differential is +1.6 runs per game.
When the Phillies play at home, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. Overall, the over/under record for Phillies games this season is 27-29, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record is 4-7. In 15% of their games, the over/under line has been set higher than 8.5 runs, while in 66.7% of their games, the line has been set lower than 8.5 runs.
Zack Wheeler Gets The Start For The Phillies
Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Brewers at home. Wheeler has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 6-3 with a 2.32 ERA. Looking at his home/road splits, Wheeler is 4-2 at home with a 1.96 ERA compared to 2-1 on the road with a 3.83 ERA. He has turned in nine quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow an earned run. In that May 28th start vs. the Giants, Wheeler went six innings and gave up just two hits. He finished with nine strikeouts in that outing.
Phillies Offense Breakdown
As a team, the Phillies are the top-scoring team in the league this season, averaging 5.2 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.7 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 4th best hitting team, with a team batting average of .256. Philadelphia also does a good job of getting on base, as they are 3rd in the league in walks and have a collective OBP of .330.
Bryce Harper is the team’s top power threat, as his 14 homers are 6th best in the league. Harper is also 5th in the league in RBIs, with 44. However, he has struggled a bit of late, hitting just .219 over his last eight games. Kyle Schwarber has also hit two homers in this stretch, but he has hit a much better .345.
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction
Our prediction for today’s Brewers vs. Phillies game is to take the over, with the line sitting at 8.5 runs. We see the Phillies coming out on top by a score of 6-5. Offensively, the Brewers have a higher projected home run total, and we have them finishing with more hits than the Phillies.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our model has Zack Wheeler finishing with five strikeouts compared to Bryse Wilson with just three. Wilson is projected to go 5.1 innings, while Wheeler is projected to go 6.1.
Given that the Phillies are -219 on the money line, we would recommend taking the over, as you can get a payout of -105. As for the Brewers, their payout is +180, but we don’t have them winning this one.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:June 3, 2024 Brewers, Phillies