The Detroit Tigers (39-47) travel to face off against the Minnesota Twins (48-38) on Thursday, July 4th. This game will be played at Target Field in Minneapolis and televised on BSN. The Tigers are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Twins are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Tigers. First pitch is set for 12:10 CT.
Tigers vs. Twins Betting Prediction
- Money Line Prediction: Twins (-189)
- Over/Under Prediction: Over 8.5 Runs
- The Twins have won 7 of their last 10 games, indicating strong recent form.
- In their last 15 games, the Twins have scored an average of 5.8 runs per game, showcasing their offensive strength.
- The Twins have a home record of 24-17, demonstrating their ability to perform well at home.
- In their last 15 games, the Twins have scored 5 or more runs in 10 games, indicating consistent offensive production.
- In their last 3 home games against the Tigers, the Twins have outscored them 11-9, showing a favorable head-to-head trend.
Tigers vs Twins
Detroit cruised to a 9-2 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Tigers had a huge 3rd inning, scoring five of their nine runs. As for the Twins, they scored their only two runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Tigers were at +143 on the money line.
Keider Montero pitched well for the Tigers in this one, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up just two earned runs. He finished the game with four strikeouts and allowed just one home run. On the other side, David Festa got the start for the Twins, going five innings and giving up seven earned runs.
Riley Greene and Carson Kelly each homered for the Tigers, while Matt Vierling went 1/5 with two RBIs and two runs scored. Wenceel Perez also had a two RBI game at the plate.
As the underdog on the road, the Tigers have a 15-20 record against the moneyline, while they are 19-19 as favorites. Detroit’s overall record is 39-47, and they are 15 games behind the Guardians in the AL Central. The Tigers have an average run margin of +3.8 in wins and -3.5 in losses.
Heading into today’s game, the over has hit in four straight games for the Tigers. For the season, the over has hit in 46 of their 84 games, with games averaging 8.4 runs per game. The over/under line for today is set at 8.5 runs, and the over has hit in 10 of the 19 games with that line.
Kenta Maeda Gets The Start For The Tigers
Kenta Maeda is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Twins, as he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work vs. the Astros. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Overall, Maeda has a record of 2-4 and an ERA of 5.76. Out of his 14 appearances, Maeda has turned in just two quality starts. His ERA on the road is 9.7 compared to 4.67 at home. Maeda’s WHIP for the season is 1.42, and he is averaging 6.83 strikeouts per nine innings.
Tigers Offense Breakdown
For the season, the Tigers are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. This is also the same number of runs they are averaging at home and on the road. As a team, they are batting just .228, which is 18th in the league, and their team on-base percentage is just .292. Detroit’s offense has also struggled in terms of power, as they are 18th in home runs and have a collective slugging percentage of just .373.
Riley Greene has been a bright spot for the Tigers this season, as his 43 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and his 16 homers are 11th in the league. Greene is also batting .260 for the season. Matt Vierling is 2nd on the team with 11 homers but is batting just .249 overall. Vierling has two homers in his last five games but is hitting just .238 over that stretch.
Minnesota has been a strong favorite this season, with a 39-21 record in that role, but they have struggled as underdogs, going 9-17. The Twins are 24-17 at home and 24-21 on the road, and they have an overall series record of 16-8-2. They are currently on a three-game winning streak in series and have a 48-38 overall record.
For those who like betting the over, the Twins have had high-scoring games this season, with an average of 9.1 runs per game. Their over/under record is 42-42, and the over has hit in three straight games. Today’s O/U line of 8.5 runs is higher than their average line of 8 runs, with only 12.8% of their games having higher lines this season.
Bailey Ober Gets The Start For The Twins
Twins starter Bailey Ober has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 7-4. His ERA for the season is 4.29, along with a WHIP of 1.09. Opponents have a batting average of .225 this season off Ober. In his 16 appearances, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 9.41 strikeouts per nine innings. Ober’s most recent outing came vs. the Mariners, where he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on three hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Twins Offense Breakdown
Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers have been the Twins’ top power threats this season, with Santana’s 12 homers ranking 2nd on the team and Jeffers’ 13 homers leading the team and putting him 14th in the league. Jeffers also comes into the game as the Twins’ leader in RBIs, with 42. Willi Castro has also been a solid run producer so far, as his 27 RBIs are 7th in the league.
Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda have been swinging the bat well of late, with Correa hitting .333 over his last four games and Miranda going 6/19 over his last five games. Miranda also comes into the game on a seven-game hitting streak.
Tigers vs Twins Prediction
Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Twins, which means there isn’t a ton of value on taking them on the money line at -189. Instead, we would recommend taking the over at 8.5 runs, as we see there being a lot of value there.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Kenta Maeda is projected to pick up six strikeouts, and we have Bailey Ober finishing with six as well. If you’re looking for a player prop bet, you could take the over on Maeda’s strikeout total, as we have him finishing with the sixth most in the league today.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:July 4, 2024 Tigers, Twins