Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 7/26/2024

The Cleveland Guardians (61-41) travel to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies (64-38) on Friday, July 26th. This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and televised on BSGL. Both the Guardians and Phillies are looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. First pitch is set for 5:40 CT.

Guardians vs. Phillies Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Phillies (-174)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 8.5 Runs
  • The Phillies have a strong home record, winning 7 out of their last 10 home games.
  • In their last 15 games, the Phillies have scored 5 or more runs in 7 games, showing consistent offensive production.
  • The Phillies have won 4 out of their last 5 home games, indicating a recent strong performance at home.
  • In the last 15 games, the Phillies have held their opponents to 3 or fewer runs in 6 games, demonstrating effective starting pitching and defense.
  • The Phillies have a higher league rank (1st in NL East) compared to the Guardians (1st in AL Central), indicating overall better performance this season.

Guardians vs Phillies

cleveland guardians nba

The Phillies Took The Last Game Of This Series

Cleveland closed out their series vs. the Tigers with a 3-0 loss. Heading into the game, the Guardians were the heavy favorite at -149. Things really got away from the Guardians in the 2nd inning, as the Tigers scored three runs in the inning. Cleveland’s offense didn’t score their first run until the 6th.

Gavin Williams put together a good start for the Guardians, going six innings and giving up just three runs on six hits. He also issued only two walks and struck out nine Tigers. Despite pitching well, he was still tagged with the loss.

Cleveland is 4.5 games ahead of the Twins in the AL Central, holding a 61-41 overall record. They have a 17-15 record in divisional matchups this season. The Guardians are 28-26 on the road, and their games have averaged 8.5 runs per game, resulting in a 49-47 over/under record. As underdogs, they have a 20-14 run line record, while as favorites, they are 29-39.

When favored, the Guardians are 45-23 straight up, but as underdogs, they are 16-18. For the season, Cleveland’s average run margin in wins is 3.4, and in losses, it’s -3.1. The under has hit in their last two games, and 53.9% of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s 8.5-run total.

Ben Lively Gets The Start For The Guardians

Cleveland is sending Ben Lively to the mound today vs. the Phillies, and he comes in with a record of 8-6 and an ERA of 3.57. Lively’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.19. Out of his 17 starts, he has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 7.71 strikeouts per nine innings. Lively most recently faced the Padres, where he took the loss, giving up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. Lively’s ERA on the road is 4.39, compared to 2.68 at home.

Guardians Offense Breakdown

Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 24 homers are 5th in the league, and Naylor’s 22 homers are 7th in the MLB. Ramirez also has the 2nd most RBIs in the league at 82, while Naylor is 5th with 72 RBIs. Ramirez comes into the game batting .273 for the season, and Naylor is hitting .238.

As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been a good lineup at avoiding strikeouts this season and have been good at putting the ball in play, as their batting average, and on-base percentage numbers are both right around league average. One area they have struggled in is with their batting average on balls in play, where they are 18th in the league.

The Phillies Took The Last Game Of This Series

The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Twins with a 5-4 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Twins scored three runs in the bottom of the 7th. Philadelphia was the -135 favorite on the money line going into the game.

Aaron Nola was on the hill for the Phillies, going six innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out six. However, the Phillies couldn’t close things out, and Gregory Soto took the loss out of the bullpen. The Phillies also wasted a big game from Trea Turner, who homered in the 1st inning, going 2/5.

Philadelphia has an overall series record of 19-11-5 and they lead the NL East by 9.5 games over the Braves with a 64-38 record. The Phillies are looking to bounce back after losing two of three games in their previous series against the Twins.

When favored, the Phillies have a 56-30 straight-up record and they have an average run margin of +1.1 runs per game this season. Their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game, resulting in an over/under record of 46-51. The over/under line for today’s game is 8.5 runs, which has been set in 26 of their 84 games (25.5%).

Cristopher Sánchez Gets The Start For The Phillies

Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez finished with a no-decision in his last outing, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs to the Pirates. He ended up with a record of 7-5 and an ERA of 2.97. Sánchez has made 19 starts this year and has one complete game shutout. Opponents are batting .250 off the left-hander this year. In his 19 appearances, he has turned in 10 quality starts. Sánchez has been much better at home, coming in with a record of 6-1 and an ERA of 1.62 compared to 1-4 with a 5.65 ERA on the road.

Phillies Offense Breakdown

philadelphia phillies

Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. As a team, the Phillies are batting .257, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. They also have the 6th most home runs in the league and have been very good at avoiding strikeouts this season.

Bryce Harper is the Phillies’ top power threat, as his 23 home runs are 6th best in the league. Harper is also 11th in the league with 65 RBIs. However, he has struggled a bit of late, hitting just .182 over his last five games. Alec Bohm is batting .296 for the season and leads the team with 71 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber is 2nd on the team with 19 homers but is batting just .238 this season.

Guardians vs Phillies Prediction

Our prediction for the Guardians vs. Phillies game is to take the over, with the line being set at 8.5 runs. We see the Phillies coming out on top of this one by a score of 6-5. Looking at the money line, the Phillies are at -174 to win, and with the payout being so much lower than the over/under line, we recommend sticking with the over.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Christopher Sanchez is predicted to go seven innings, while Ben Lively is projected to go nine. Sanchez has a higher chance of picking up the win and is also predicted to finish with more strikeouts than Lively.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.