The Minnesota Twins (81-73) travel to face off against the Boston Red Sox (76-78) on Saturday, September 21st. This game will be played at Fenway Park in Boston and televised on BSN. The Twins are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Red Sox are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Twins. First pitch is set for 3:10 CT.
Twins vs. Red Sox Betting Prediction
- Money Line Prediction: Red Sox (+117)
- Over/Under Prediction: Over 8 Runs
- The Red Sox have a 5-2 record in their last 7 home games.
- The Red Sox have scored an average of 5.14 runs per game in their last 7 home games.
- The Red Sox have won 3 out of their last 4 home games against AL Central opponents.
- The Twins have a 2-5 record in their last 7 away games.
- The Twins have allowed an average of 5.57 runs per game in their last 7 away games.
Twins vs Red Sox
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Twins vs Red Sox series. Minnesota went into the matchup as slight favorites at -120 and squeaked out a 4-2 win. The Twins offense only had one more hit than the Red Sox and struck out eight times, but still picked up a win.
Both teams scored one run in the first inning, and the Red Sox could only muster one more run in the 4th inning. As for the Twins, they scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 7th and added some insurance with three runs in the 12th. Heading into the 7th, the Twins had only scored one run on two hits.
David Festa got the win for the Twins out of the bullpen, while Griffin Jax got the save. Cooper Criswell took the loss for Boston out of the bullpen.
Minnesota has an 81-73 record and is 3rd in the AL Central, 8.5 games behind the Guardians. They are 26-19-4 in series this season and won the first game of this series vs. the Red Sox.
On the run line, the Twins are 32-43 at home and 40-39 on the road. Their average run margin is +0.1 runs per game, and their over/under record is 77-71. The under has hit in their last two games, and their O/U record when the total is 8 runs is 13-21-5.
Pablo López Gets The Start For The Twins
Pablo López has been pitching well for the Twins, coming into the game with a record of 15-8 and an ERA of 3.84. He has made 30 starts this year, and opponents are batting .243 off the right-hander. Lopez has turned in 18 quality starts this year and is averaging 9.58 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Lopez didn’t give up a run in any of those three outings.
Twins Offense Breakdown
Carlos Santana comes into the game as the Twins’ leader in home runs this season, but he is batting just .238 for the season. He has also struggled of late, going 7/30 in his last seven games. Willi Castro has batted .320 over his last eight games and is hitting .250 for the season, with 12 homers.
Over the Twins’ last eight games, Willi Castro has gone 8/25 with one home run and five RBIs. Ryan Jeffers is also near the top of the Twins’ home run list, with 20 homers, but he is batting just .228 for the season.
As underdogs, the Red Sox have struggled this season, posting a 35-43 record, but as favorites, they have done much better with a 41-35 record. Overall, Boston is 76-78 and has lost two straight games, including the series opener against the Twins.
When it comes to the over/under, the Red Sox games have averaged 9.3 runs per game this season, with a 75-71 O/U record. Today’s over/under line of 8 runs is significantly lower than their average line of 9 runs per game.
Kutter Crawford Gets The Start For The Red Sox
Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Yankees, where he gave up four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Crawford has taken the loss in each of his last three starts. Looking back further, he has lost four straight starts and has given up at least two homers in three of his last four outings. Crawford’s record for the season is 8-15, and his ERA is 4.19. Opposing batters are hitting .217 off Crawford this season.
Red Sox Offense Breakdown
Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are 8th in the league in home runs and have the best BABIP in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. Boston’s offense is also one of the best in terms of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
Over his last five games, Connor Wong has gone 6/18 for the Red Sox, but he has yet to record an extra-base hit or an RBI in that stretch. Tyler O’Neill has gone just 1/19 in his last five games but does have a home run in that stretch. O’Neill is the Red Sox’s leader in homers this season with 31, and he is batting .244 overall.
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction
With the Red Sox as the underdog at +117, we see this as a great value pick for today’s Red Sox vs. Twins matchup. We actually have the Red Sox winning this one by a score of 6-5, giving you the option to also take the over, as the line is sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Kutter Crawford actually has better odds of picking up a win than Pablo Lopez. However, we do have Crawford finishing with fewer strikeouts than Lopez, but his projected strikeout total is still five.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:September 21, 2024 Red Sox, Twins