Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 5/10/2024

The Washington Nationals (18-18) travel to face off against the Boston Red Sox (19-18) on Friday, May 10th. This game will be played at Fenway Park in Boston and televised on NESN. Both the Nationals and Red Sox are looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. First pitch is set for 7:10 ET.

Nationals vs Red Sox

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The Nationals will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Orioles with a 7-6 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 11th inning before the Orioles scored two runs in the top of the 11th. Washington was the +147 underdog at home going into the game.

Mitchell Parker put together a good start for the Nationals, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just two earned runs, and striking out three. However, the Nationals couldn’t close things out, and Jordan Weems took the loss out of the bullpen. The Nationals also wasted a big game from Eddie Rosario, who homered and went 2/4.

Washington is at .500 with an 18-18 record, and they are 7.0 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Nationals are 5-2 in divisional games, and they will be on the road today vs. the Red Sox. So far, they are 11-8 on the road compared to 7-10 at home.

As the road underdog, the Nationals have gone 10-8 this year, and they are 16-17 overall as the underdog. Washington’s series record is 5-6-1 this year, and they split their most recent series vs. the Orioles. Looking at how they have been as the favorite, the Nationals are 2-1 this year, and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games overall.

The Nationals have been a solid play on the run line this season, going 23-13 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 14-5, and as an underdog, going 21-12. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.1, while it’s -3.6 in losses.

Washington’s over/under record for the season is 17-18, and the average over/under line for their games is 9 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 7-7. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.6 runs per game, and the over has hit in 5 of their last 10 games with an over/under line set at 8.5 runs.

Patrick Corbin Gets The Start For The Nationals

Left-hander Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 0-3 with an ERA of 6.45. Corbin’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.80, and opponents are batting .325 off him this year. Corbin’s last outing came against the Blue Jays, where he went six innings, giving up three earned runs on six hits. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Corbin has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Nationals Offense Breakdown

Washington’s offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game this season, which is 18th in the league. They have been a bit better on the road, averaging 4.4 runs per game. As a team, the Nationals are batting .231, and their team on-base percentage of .313 is 10th in the league. The Nationals have been near the middle of the pack in terms of home runs and slugging percentage.

Luis Garcia Jr. has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/24 in his past seven games with two homers and 10 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .321. CJ Abrams and Nick Senzel have been the Nationals’ top home run threats, with Abrams leading the team with seven homers and Senzel at five. Abrams is batting .272 for the season but has gone just 7/35 in his last eight games.

The Red Sox will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Braves with a 5-0 loss. Boston was the +177 underdog on the money line going into this matchup. Things really got away from the Red Sox in the 1st inning, as the Braves scored four runs in the inning. Boston’s offense didn’t score their first run until the 4th.

Nick Pivetta got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss. He only lasted four innings, giving up five earned runs on seven hits. Connor Wong had two hits for the Red Sox but didn’t score a run.

Boston will host the Nationals today with an overall record of 19-18, and they are 5.5 games behind the Orioles in the AL East. The Red Sox have dropped two straight games, and this season, they are 0-3 in interleague play. Boston lost the final two games of their series vs. the Braves, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.

So far, the Red Sox are 7-9 at home compared to 12-9 on the road. As the favorite, Boston has gone 9-5 and 10-13 as the underdog. They are also just under .500 overall in their series record, coming in at 6-5-1 and have lost two straight series.

The Red Sox have been a good bet on the run line overall this season, going 19-18. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 13-8. However, they have struggled to cover the run line at home, going just 6-10. They have been a better bet as an underdog, going 14-9 on the run line, compared to 5-9 as a favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is 4.8, while it is -3.2 in losses.

The Red Sox have played 34 games this season, and 21.6% of them have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or more. Their games have averaged 7.9 runs per game, and their over/under record is 14-20. Their last two games have gone under the total, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 7-5.

Tanner Houck Gets The Start For The Red Sox

Tanner Houck gets the start for the Red Sox today and comes in with a record of 3-3 and an ERA of 1.99. Looking at his overall numbers, Houck has made seven starts and six of them have been quality starts. He has one complete game shutout this year. Per nine innings, Houck is averaging 9.13 strikeouts and just 1.39 walks. The last time he pitched, Houck took the loss, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that outing, he had gone three straight starts without taking the loss.

Red Sox Offense Breakdown

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Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have been a solid home run hitting team so far, as their 38 homers are 10th in the league. Boston’s offense is also one of the best in the league at avoiding strikeouts, but they are just 12th in the league in walks. As a team, the Red Sox are batting .244, which is 8th in the MLB.

Ceddanne Rafaela comes into the game on a seven-game hitting streak, and over his last eight games, he has gone 8/29 with a home run. Rafaela’s 20 RBIs are the best mark on the team and 15th in the league. Jarren Duran has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/31 in his last eight games. For the season, Duran is batting .266 with one home run.

Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction

Our prediction for today’s Nationals vs. Red Sox game is to take the over, with the line being set at 8.5 runs. We actually have the Red Sox winning this one 5-4, but with the payout for a Red Sox win being -203, we see more value in the over.

Looking at some potential player props, Tanner Houck is predicted to finish with seven strikeouts, which is good for third among all starters today. As for Patrick Corbin, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which is seventh worst.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.