New York Mets vs Miami Marlins MLB Betting Prediction

MLB New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction 5/19/2024

The New York Mets (20-25) travel to face off against the Miami Marlins (15-32) on Sunday, May 19th. This game will be played at loanDepot Park in Miami and televised on WPIX. The Marlins are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Mets are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Marlins. First pitch is set for 1:40 ET.

Mets vs Marlins

new york mets nba

Miami picked up a 10-9 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Marlins had a huge 3rd inning, scoring seven of their ten runs. As for the Mets, they scored four of their nine runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Marlins were at +103 on the money line.

Braxton Garrett got the start for the Marlins, going just 4 1/3 innings while giving up six runs and striking out five. Tanner Scott got the win out of the bullpen. Luis Severino only went 6 2/3 innings for the Mets, giving up five earned runs on six hits.

Josh Bell and Jazz Chisholm Jr. each homered for the Marlins, while Otto Lopez scored three times and drove in two runs while going 2/5. Bryan De La Cruz also had a two-hit game at the plate.

The Mets are looking to avoid the series sweep today vs. the Marlins, having lost two straight games overall. Currently, they are 4th in the NL East, 12 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they are just 4-8 in divisional games this year.

At 20-25 overall, the Mets have dropped seven of their last ten games. New York has been the favorite in 23 of their games, and they are 11-12 in those games. As for playing as the road favorite, they are 2-3 this year. The Mets have an even 10-11 record on the road compared to 10-14 at home.

When it comes to run line betting, the Mets have been a better play on the road this season, going 12-9 against the run line. Their average run margin on the road is -0.3, slightly better than their overall run differential of -0.4 runs per game. They have been a better run line bet as an underdog, going 12-10 against the run line compared to 8-15 as the favorite. The Mets have been outscored by an average of 3.0 runs in their losses this season.

The Mets and Marlins combined for 19 runs in their last meeting, pushing the total over the 7.5-run line. The over has hit in each of New York’s last four games, and the Mets have gone over the total in 23 of their 45 games this season. The average over/under line for Mets games this season has been 8 runs per game, and the combined run average in their games is 8.9 runs per game.

Sean Manaea Gets The Start For The Mets

Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today as he faces off against the Marlins on the road. So far this season, he has made eight starts and has a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 3.05. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.31. Looking at his overall numbers, Manaea has made three quality starts and is averaging 8.06 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Mets Offense Breakdown

So far this season, the Mets offense is averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. One thing to note is that they have been much better on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per game compared to just 3.3 runs per contest at home. As a team, they are batting just .235, which is 14th in the league, and their collective isolated power (ISO) of .129 is 21st in the league.

Brandon Nimmo comes into the game as the Mets’ top home run hitter and is also leading the team in RBIs. However, he is batting just .216 for the season and has gone just 2/18 in his last six games. Pete Alonso has also struggled this season, with a batting average of just .230, but he does have 10 homers, which is 5th in the league. Alonso has gone 9/33 in his last eight games.

Miami is hosting the Mets today with an overall record of 15-32, which has them 5th in the NL East. So far, they have gone just 4-11 in divisional games and are 18 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Marlins have won four straight games, and they are 5-5 over their last 10.

At home, the Marlins are 8-17 this year compared to a 7-15 mark on the road. So far, they have really struggled in night games, going 5-18. As the underdog, the Marlins are 12-21 this year, and they are 3-11 when favored. Miami’s overall series record is 2-11-1 this year.

When the Marlins win, they do so by an average of 3.2 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of -3.9 runs per game. They have a run line record of 17-30, and when they are the underdog, they are 16-17 against the run line. At home, they are 7-18 against the run line, but they have covered the run line in three straight games.

The Miami Marlins have played in 74.5% of their games this season with an over/under line higher than 7.5 runs. Their combined run average with opponents this season is 9.4 runs per game, and their over/under record is 28-19. Their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 8-2, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. They are currently on a two-game over streak.

Sixto Sánchez Gets The Start For The Marlins

Sixto Sánchez gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Mets at home. So far, he has made four starts and 11 appearances. Sánchez has a record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.96. This year, he has a WHIP of 1.63 and opponents are batting .286 off the right-hander. Sánchez has not picked up a win this year and has finished with a no-decision in each of his last four outings. In his most recent start, he went 4 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, five hits, and two homers. He finished with two strikeouts in that outing.

Marlins Offense Breakdown

miami marlins

So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is the 24th best mark in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.3 runs per contest. Miami’s offense has been led by Bryan De La Cruz and Jazz Chisholm Jr., who are both batting over .260 and have combined for 15 home runs.

Josh Bell has also gone deep six times this season but is batting just .229. However, he has been swinging the bat well of late, going 9/22 in his last five games with six RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Bryan De La Cruz are both on three-game hitting streaks.

Mets vs Marlins Prediction

Our predicted money line pick for this Mets vs. Marlins matchup is to take the Marlins at +125. With the Marlins predicted to win by a score of 5-4, there is some nice value in picking them to win outright.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Sixto Sanchez is projected to finish with five strikeouts compared to Sean Manaea with six. Sanchez is also predicted to give up fewer runs than Manaea, and he has the seventh-best chances of picking up a win compared to Manaea, who is 19th.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.