New York Mets vs Miami Marlins MLB Betting Prediction

MLB New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction 7/19/2024

The New York Mets (49-46) travel to face off against the Miami Marlins (33-63) on Friday, July 19th. This game will be played at loanDepot Park in Miami and televised on BSFL. The Marlins are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Mets are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Rockies. First pitch is set for 6:10 CT.

Mets vs. Marlins Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Mets (-134)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 8.5 Runs
  • The Mets have scored an average of 5.6 runs per game over their last 15 games.
  • The Mets have won 10 out of their last 15 games, showing strong recent form.
  • The Mets have a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, indicating a positive trend.
  • The Mets have won 4 out of their last 5 away games, demonstrating good performance on the road.
  • The Mets have outscored the Marlins 20-9 in their last three head-to-head games.

Mets vs Marlins

new york mets nba

The Marlins Took The Last Game Of This Series

Pete Alonso and the Mets are coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 8-5 loss to the Rockies, Alonso went 1/5 with a homer and two RBIs. The Mets scored three runs in the 4th inning but gave up the lead right away. New York was the -202 favorite at home going into the game.

Jose Quintana got the start for the Mets and took the loss. He only lasted 5 2/3 innings, giving up five earned runs on six hits. The Mets also issued three walks and hit a batter. Francisco Lindor was hot at the plate, going 2/3 with a run scored.

Overall, the Mets have a 49-46 record and are 3rd in the NL East, 12.5 games behind the Phillies. They have a 23-20 road record and a 26-26 record at home. The Mets have been good as favorites, going 30-24, but their run line record as favorites is 21-33.

New York’s games have averaged 9.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 51-41. When the O/U line is 8.5 runs, the over has hit in 16 of 26 games. Their overall run line record is 45-50, with a 24-19 record on the road and 21-31 at home.

Sean Manaea Gets The Start For The Mets

Left-hander Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made 18 starts this season and has a record of 6-3 with a 3.46 ERA. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.22, and opponents are batting .212 off him this year. In his last outing, Manaea picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up three earned runs on nine hits. Before that, he had two straight no-decisions. Manaea has made six quality starts this year and is averaging 8.97 strikeouts per nine innings.

Mets Offense Breakdown

So far this season, the Mets are one of the league’s top-scoring offenses, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .250, which is 7th in the league, and are also ranked 5th in home runs. New York’s team on-base percentage and slugging percentage are also among the league’s best.

Brandon Nimmo has been struggling for the Mets of late, as he is batting just .235 over his last eight games. However, he does have three home runs during that stretch. For the season, he is batting .248 with 16 homers. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are the Mets’ top two home run hitters, with 19 and 17, respectively. Lindor is batting .253, and Alonso is at .240.

The Marlins Are Coming Off A Win

Miami is coming off a game in which they closed out their series vs. the Reds with a 3-2 win. This was especially impressive, as they were the heavy underdog at +156 on the money line. It was a big 2nd inning for the Marlins, as they scored two runs to take the lead and added another run in the 5th to extend their lead. The Marlins’ offense was carried by Xavier Edwards, who went 2/3 with a run scored and a stolen base.

Trevor Rogers got the start for the Marlins, going 5 2/3 innings, and giving up just two runs on two hits. He only had four strikeouts in the outing and got the win.

Miami has a 42-54 run line record this season, with a -1.6 run differential per game. They have been better as underdogs, going 40-39, but have struggled as favorites, posting a 2-15 record. The Marlins are 33-63 overall, 5th in the NL East, and have a 7-21-2 series record.

Against NL East teams, the Marlins are 7-19, and they are currently 29 games behind the Phillies in the division. Miami’s straight-up record is 18-31 at home and 15-32 on the road. Their games have averaged 8.6 runs this season, and their over/under record is 51-43. In games with an O/U line of 8.5 runs, their record is 16-15.

Edward Cabrera Gets The Start For The Marlins

Miami is sending Edward Cabrera to the mound today vs. the Mets, and he is coming off a rough outing vs. the Reds. In that start, he gave up seven earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings of work. Cabrera ended up taking the loss in that outing. Looking back over his last four starts, he has given up at least four earned runs in three of them. Cabrera’s ERA for the season is 8.26, along with a record of 1-3. Opponents are batting .246 off the right-hander this season. Per nine innings, he is averaging 4.76 walks compared to 13.34 strikeouts.

Marlins Offense Breakdown

miami marlins

So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. Their home run numbers are also not good, as they are 22nd in the league and have the worst team ISO in the league. Miami’s team batting average is .234, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage and OPS.

Over his last eight games, Jake Burger is hitting .290 with two homers and seven RBIs. This has helped him move into the team’s home run lead. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is also near the top of the Marlins’ home run leaderboard, but he is just 6/37 over his last nine games. The Marlins will be looking for more of the recent production from Xavier Edwards, as he has gone 14/32 in his last nine games.

Mets vs Marlins Prediction

Our prediction for this Mets vs. Marlins matchup is to take the Mets on the money line, with the payout sitting at -134. We have the Mets taking this one by a score of 5-4, meaning that the over/under line of 8.5 runs is a bit too close for comfort.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Edward Cabrera is projected to finish with eight strikeouts, which is the second-best among all starters today. As for Sean Manaea, we have him finishing with six K’s, and he ranks 11th among starters in terms of projected strikeout totals.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.