New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Prediction

MLB New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 7/5/2024

The New York Mets (42-43) travel to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-45) on Friday, July 5th. This game will be played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh and televised on SNY. Both the Mets and Pirates are looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. First pitch is set for 5:40 CT.

Mets vs. Pirates Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Mets (+107)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 7.5 Runs
  • The Mets have scored 5 or more runs in 10 of their last 15 games.
  • The Mets have won 4 out of their last 5 road games.
  • The Mets have a recent head-to-head advantage, winning all 3 games against the Pirates earlier this season.
  • The Mets have a winning record against teams with a losing record, such as the Pirates, who are 41-45.
  • The Mets have outscored their opponents by a total of 24 runs in their last 15 games.

Mets vs Pirates

new york mets nba

The Pirates Took The Last Game Of This Series

The Mets will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Nationals with a 1-0 loss. New York was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but couldn’t get anything going offensively. The Mets only had one hit and it was a single. Adrian Houser took the loss out of the bullpen, as the Mets scored the only run of the game in the 8th.

Jose Quintana got the start for the Mets, going seven innings, and didn’t give up a run. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the no decision. The Mets also wasted a good performance from starter Tylor Megill, who went six innings, giving up just one run, and didn’t issue a walk.

As underdogs, the Mets have been a solid bet this season, boasting a 13-10 record straight up and a 24-15 record against the run line. Their overall run line record is 39-31, and their games have averaged 9.6 runs, resulting in a 45-37 over/under record. The over has hit in 63.5% of their games with totals higher than today’s line of 7.5 runs.

New York is 42-43 overall and 21-18 on the road, heading into today’s game looking to end a two-game losing streak. They are currently 14 games behind the Phillies in the NL East and are in 3rd place. The Mets have a 13-12 record in divisional matchups this season.

Luis Severino Gets The Start For The Mets

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces off against the Pirates on the road. He has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 5-2 with a 3.42 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Severino has a WHIP of 1.16 and has issued just 2.96 walks per nine innings compared to 6.84 strikeouts. So far, he has turned in seven quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he gave up four earned runs in seven innings of work. He didn’t give up a homer in that outing, but he had given up a homer in three straight starts before that.

Mets Offense Breakdown

So far this season, the Mets are 6th in the league in runs scored at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.7 runs per contest. New York comes into the game as the league’s 4th best home run hitting team and are also among the league leaders in team slugging and OPS.

Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos have been swinging the bat well for the Mets, with Lindor hitting .283 over his last 10 games and Vientos at .289 with five homers in this stretch. Lindor is 2nd on the team with 15 homers and has 43 RBIs. Pete Alonso is the team’s top power threat, with 18 homers and 48 RBIs, but he is batting just .242 for the season.

The Pirates Took The Last Game Of This Series

The Pirates will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cardinals with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 10th inning before the Cardinals scored two runs in the top of the 10th. Pittsburgh was the -108 favorite at home going into the game.

Martin Perez was excellent for the Pirates, going 7 1/3 innings, and didn’t give up a run. However, the Pirates couldn’t close things out, and Dennis Santana took the loss out of the bullpen. The Pirates also wasted a big game from Bryan Reynolds, who homered in the 2nd inning, going 1/4.

Heading into today’s game, the Pirates have an overall record of 41-45 and are 4th in the NL Central, 10 games behind the Brewers. They have an even division record of 13-13 and have lost two straight series. The Pirates’ run line record is 46-40, with an average run margin of +3.0 in wins and -3.5 in losses.

This season, the average run total for Pirates games is 8.4 runs, and their over/under record is 40-45. When the total line is set at 7.5 runs, their O/U record is 5-11, with 73.3% of their games having higher total lines.

Paul Skenes Gets The Start For The Pirates

Through nine starts, Paul Skenes has yet to take a loss, coming in with a record of 4-0 and ERA of 2.06. He has made seven quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he allowed just one earned run in six innings of work. In that start vs. the Braves, Skenes gave up six hits, two walks, and one home run. Skenes has a total of six home runs this year. The right-hander has been particularly good at home, with an ERA of 3.29 compared to 1.12 on the road.

Pirates Offense Breakdown

pittsburgh pirates

For the season, the Pirates are averaging just 4 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .228 and have the league’s 19th ranked home run total. One thing they have done well is draw walks, as they are 13th in the league in that category.

Bryan Reynolds has been a bright spot for the Pirates this season, as he is batting .273 with a team-high 48 RBIs and 14 home runs. Andrew McCutchen and Oneil Cruz are also tied for 2nd on the team with 12 homers. McCutchen comes into the game with a batting average of just .229. Over his last eight games, Rowdy Tellez is hitting .360 with three home runs.

Mets vs Pirates Prediction

Our pick for this Mets vs. Pirates matchup is to take the Mets on the money line, with the payout sitting at +107. We actually have the Mets winning this one by a score of 5-4.

Looking at some of the starting pitcher projections, Paul Skenes actually has the highest strikeout projection among all starters, but we still have the Mets coming out on top. If you’re looking at some other markets, you could look at the over/under, where the line is sitting at 7.5 runs. Our models have this one going over, but we are sticking with the Mets on the money line.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.