The New York Mets (16-15) travel to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays (14-18) on Friday, May 3rd. This game will be played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg and televised on SNY. The Mets are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Rays are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Brewers. First pitch is set for 6:50 ET.
Mets vs Rays
The Mets’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Cubs, closing out their series with a 7-6 win. After allowing one run to the Cubs in the top of the 2nd, the Mets responded with two runs of their own. New York went on to add another two runs in the 3rd inning.
Adrian Houser had a rough outing, giving up four earned runs on four hits and issuing four walks. The Mets’s offense was carried by Francisco Lindor, who went 3/3 with two doubles, a run scored, and four RBIs.
The Mets are 16-15 overall and trail the Braves by five games in the NL East. New York’s overall record is 2-1 in divisional games. They are on the road today, and they are 7-5 as the road team this year.
As the underdog, the Mets have lost five straight games, and they are 6-7 overall in these situations. New York is 10-8 when favored this year, and they are coming off a series where they split the four games vs. the Cubs.
When betting the Mets on the run line this season, it’s been better to take them on the road than at home. They are 8-4 against the run line on the road, which is a big reason why their overall run line record is 16-15. Their average run margin is +0.2 runs per game, and they are scoring 0.7 more runs per game on the road than at home.
The New York Mets have played to an over/under record of 15-16 this season, with an average over/under line of 8 runs per game. In their last 10 games, the Mets have seen the over/under line set at 8 runs four times and have gone 2-2 in those games. Overall, 45.2% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at more than 8 runs.
Jose Quintana Gets The Start For The Mets
New York is sending left-hander Jose Quintana to the mound today vs. the Rays. He has made six starts this year and has a record of 1-2 with an ERA of 3.48. Quintana’s WHIP for the season is 1.34. So far, he has made one quality start and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a homer. In his three road starts, Quintana is 1-1 with a 5.22 ERA. At home, his ERA is 2.26. Overall, he has allowed three homers and is averaging 6.15 strikeouts per nine innings.
Mets Offense Breakdown
So far this season, the Mets offense is averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 5.6 runs per game, which is 3rd in the league. As a team, they are batting .237 and have the 9th most home runs in the league.
Pete Alonso comes into the game with a team-high 8 home runs, but he is batting just .218 for the season. Overall, he is 6/36 in his last 10 games. Brandon Nimmo is batting just .216 this season but has an OBP of .365 and leads the team with 20 RBIs. Francisco Lindor and Alonso are both near the top of the league in home runs, but they are batting just .207 and .218, respectively.
The Rays will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Brewers with a 7-1 loss. Tampa Bay was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Brewers scored four times in the third.
Zach Eflin had a rough outing, giving up three earned runs on six hits and issuing three walks. The Rays also only had one fewer hit than the Brewers but scored just one run. Richie Palacios and Jose Caballero each had two hits. Palacios scored the team’s only run and Caballero had a double.
Tampa Bay will host the Mets today with an overall record of 14-18, which has them 5th in the AL East. Currently, they trail the Orioles by 6.5 games for the lead in the division. The Rays lost the first two games of their series vs. the Brewers but bounced back to win the final game.
So far, the Rays have gone just 6-9 on the road compared to 8-9 at home. Looking at their overall record, the Rays have dropped eight of their last ten games. This season, they are only 4-4 as the underdog, and they are 10-14 when favored. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 3-5-2, and they have lost four straight series.
When the Tampa Bay Rays win, they tend to win big, with an average run margin of 2.4 runs. However, when they lose, they lose by an average of 4.2 runs per game. As a result, their run line record is just 11-21, and they have failed to cover the run line in 12 straight games as the favorite.
The Tampa Bay Rays have played 32 games this season, and 19 of them have had over/under lines set at more than 8 runs. That’s a rate of 59.4%. The Rays have played 6 games with over/under lines set at 8 runs, and the over has hit in 5 of them. Their average combined run total this season is 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record is 18-14.
Aaron Civale Gets The Start For The Rays
Right-hander Aaron Civale gets the start for the Rays today and comes into the game with a record of 2-2 and an ERA of 5.06. So far, he has made three appearances at home and three on the road. Civale has a WHIP of 1.31 and is averaging 9.56 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had turned in three straight quality starts. Civale has given up at least one homer in each of his last three outings.
Rays Offense Breakdown
So far this season, the Rays are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 23rd in the league. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 3.8 runs per contest, but that is still only 19th in the league. As a team, they are batting .238, which is 12th in the league, and have the 15th fewest home runs in the league.
Isaac Paredes comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak, and he has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/22 in his last five games. Paredes is 4th on the team with a .291 batting average and is tied for the team lead with seven homers. Over his last six games, Richie Palacios is 8/18 with three RBIs.
Mets vs Rays Prediction
Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Rays, which means there is some nice value on them to win straight up at -134. Looking at the starting pitchers, Aaron Civale is projected to go seven innings, while Jose Quintana is projected to go five.
If you’re looking for some home run props, the Mets are predicted to finish with the 11th most home runs on the day, while the Rays are down in 26th. As for the Rays’ lineup, they are predicted to finish with the 13th most strikeouts.
As for Jose Quintana, he is projected to finish with five strikeouts, and Civale is predicted to finish with five as well.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
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Last updated:May 3, 2024 Mets, Rays