The New York Mets (16-17) travel to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays (16-18) on Sunday, May 5th. This game will be played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg and televised on SNY. The Rays are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Mets are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Rays. First pitch is set for 1:40 ET.
Mets vs Rays
Tampa Bay picked up a 3-1 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Rays had a huge 8th inning, scoring two of their three runs and picking up all seven of their hits. Heading into the game, the Rays were at -108 on the money line.
Zack Littell started for the Rays and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts and didn’t issue a walk. Christian Scott got the start for the Mets and took the loss, giving up one earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work.
Starling Marte was the only Mets hitter to have more than one hit, as he went 2/3 with an RBI. Isaac Paredes did the most damage for the Rays, going 2/3 with an RBI.
The Mets are on the road today vs. the Rays, and they are looking to get back to .500, as they are currently 16-17 overall. New York has dropped two straight games, and they trail the Phillies by 6.5 games in the NL East. So far, they are 2-1 in divisional games this year.
At home, the Mets are 9-10 this year, and they are 7-7 on the road. As the underdog, the Mets have dropped six straight games, and they are 5-6 as the road underdog this year. New York’s overall series record is 5-4-1, and they are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
When the Mets are on the road, they have a run line record of 8-6, and their average run margin is +0.3. They have a run line record of 16-17 overall, and their average run margin is +0.1. They have a losing streak against the run line on the road at two games.
The Mets’ over/under record for the season is 16-17, and their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game. Today’s over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and the Mets’ over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 4-5. In total, 57.6% of their games this season have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs. Their most recent game against the Rays ended with just 4 runs scored.
Luis Severino Gets The Start For The Mets
Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Rays on the road. So far, he has made six starts and has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 2.31. Opposing batters are hitting .198 off Severino this year, and he has turned in three quality starts. In his most recent outing, Severino finished with a no-decision, going eight innings and giving up one earned run on five hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, Severino has been much better at home, with an ERA of 2.08 compared to 3.15 on the road.
Mets Offense Breakdown
So far, the Mets have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per game, which is the 4th best mark in the league. Overall, they are 17th in the league at 4.4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .237, which is 12th in the league, and are 9th in home runs. New York’s team batting average is .237, and they are 4th in the league in fewest strikeouts per game.
Brandon Nimmo comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak and is batting .218 for the season. He has been a bright spot in the lineup, as his 20 RBIs are the best on the team and 10th in the league. Pete Alonso has a team-high eight homers but is batting just .214 for the season. Shortstop Francisco Lindor is also looking to get things going at the plate, as he is batting just .202.
Tampa Bay is hosting the Mets today with an overall record of 16-18, which has them 5th in the AL East. Currently, they trail the Orioles by 6.5 games for the lead in the division. The Rays have taken two straight games overall and are 3-4 in divisional games this year.
As the home team, the Rays are 10-9 this year and 6-9 on the road. So far, they have really struggled as the favorite, going 11-14, but they are 5-4 as the underdog. Tampa Bay has won three straight at home, and their overall series record is 3-5-2, and they have lost four straight series.
When betting the run line on the Rays, it’s been a good idea to take them as the underdog, as they are 6-3 against the run line in those games. They have also been a good bet at home, going 7-12 against the run line. Their average run differential is -1.1 runs per game, and they are 13-21 against the run line overall.
The Tampa Bay Rays have played 27 games this season, and all of them have had over/under lines set at 7.5 runs or higher. Their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game, and their over/under record is 19-15. Today’s over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and in the two games this season where the line was set at 7.5 runs, the over/under record is 5-2.
Ryan Pepiot Gets The Start For The Rays
Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today and comes in with a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.12. So far, he has made six starts and has turned in four quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Pepiot didn’t allow a run and picked up the win in six innings of work. In that outing, he gave up two hits, three walks, and didn’t allow a homer. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight outings. Opponents are batting .161 off Pepiot this season. Per nine innings, he has 9.87 strikeouts and 2.6 walks.
Rays Offense Breakdown
So far this season, the Rays offense has been one of the worst in the league, averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 10th in the league, and are 16th in home runs. However, their isolated power of .113 is just 24th in the league.
Isaac Paredes has been a bright spot for the Rays this season, as he is batting .293 and has a team-high seven home runs. Over his last six games, he has gone 8/23 with four runs scored and two RBIs. Amed Rosario has also been a solid bat for the Rays, hitting .309 with two homers. However, Randy Arozarena has struggled, with a batting average of just .140.
Mets vs Rays Prediction
Our prediction for this Rays vs. Mets matchup is that the Rays will pick up a 5-4 win at home. With the money line payout for a Rays win sitting at -125, this is the bet we recommend making.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Luis Severino does have a better chance of picking up a win compared to Ryan Pepiot. However, we have Severino finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Pepiot with four.
Offensively, the Mets are projected to finish with just nine hits compared to the Rays with nine. However, the Mets are projected to finish with just four runs compared to the Rays with five.
Another reason we like the Rays to pick up the win is that they have a better chance of hitting a home run compared to the Mets.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:May 5, 2024 Mets, Rays