Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction 9/29/2024

The Baltimore Orioles (90-71) travel to face off against the Minnesota Twins (82-79) on Sunday, September 29th. This game will be played at Target Field in Minneapolis and televised on MASN. The Orioles are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Twins are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Orioles. First pitch is set for 2:10 CT.

Orioles vs. Twins Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Twins (-169)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 7.5 Runs
  • The Twins have a strong home record with 43 wins and 37 losses, indicating they perform well at home.
  • In the last 15 games, the Twins have scored 6 or more runs in 5 games, showing their offense can be potent.
  • The Twins have won 3 out of their last 5 home games, demonstrating recent success at home.
  • In their last head-to-head series against the Orioles, the Twins won 2 out of 3 games, indicating a favorable matchup.
  • The Twins have a higher league rank (8th) compared to the Orioles (9th), suggesting overall better performance this season.

Orioles vs Twins

baltimore orioles nba

Baltimore cruised to a 9-2 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Orioles had a huge 2nd inning, scoring three runs, and added three more in the 5th. As for the Twins, they scored their only two runs in the 9th. Heading into the game, the Orioles were at +103 on the money line.

Matt Bowman only went 1 1/3 innings for the Orioles but didn’t give up a run and got the win. Zebby Matthews had a rough outing for the Twins, giving up six runs in three innings of work. He took the loss.

Emmanuel Rivera had a huge game at the plate for the Orioles, going 4/4 with two homers and four RBIs. Ryan O’Hearn also homered for Baltimore and drove in two runs. Ryan Jeffers was the only Twins hitter to have more than one hit, going 2/4 with a homer.

After winning the first two games of their series vs. the Twins, the Orioles are now three games behind the Yankees in the AL East with a 90-71 record. Baltimore has an overall series record of 26-18-7 this season.

On the run line, the Orioles have an 86-75 record, including a 26-13 mark as underdogs. Their games have averaged 9.2 runs, resulting in an 87-63 over/under record. Heading into today’s game, the O’s have gone 6-4 in their last ten games.

Albert Suárez Gets The Start For The Orioles

Right-hander Albert Suárez gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Twins on the road. He has made 23 starts this season and has a record of 8-7 with a 3.74 ERA. Suárez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.32. In his 31 appearances, he has turned in six quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Suárez took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. He has lost each of his last three starts. One positive note is that Suárez did pick up the win in his outing before that, going six innings and giving up just one earned run. Opponents are batting .253 off Suárez this season.

Orioles Offense Breakdown

For the season, the Orioles are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 4th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .250, which is 6th in the league, and are 2nd in the league in home runs. Baltimore’s team slugging percentage of .436 is 3rd in the league.

Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander have been the Orioles’ top home run hitters this season. Henderson is batting .282 with 37 homers, while Santander has gone deep 44 times but has a batting average of just .235. Ryan O’Hearn and Emmanuel Rivera have both been swinging the bat well of late, with O’Hearn going 7/22 in his last seven games and Rivera going 7/11 in his last five games.

Minnesota has struggled recently, losing three straight games and 8 of their last 10, and they are 4th in the AL Central, 10 games behind the Guardians. The Twins have a 26-21-4 series record this season and an overall record of 82-79.

Against the run line, the Twins are 73-88, and their over/under record for games with lines higher than 7.5 runs is 83-72. Today’s over/under line is 7.5 runs, lower than their average of 9.1 runs per game.

Bailey Ober Gets The Start For The Twins

The Twins are starting Bailey Ober today vs. the Orioles, and he comes into the game with a record of 12-8 and an ERA of 3.94. Looking back at his last outing, Ober took the loss vs. the Marlins, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had a streak of three straight outings without giving up a home run. Ober has made 30 starts this season, and opponents are batting .205 vs. the right-hander. Out of his 30 starts, Ober has 18 quality starts and one complete game. Per nine innings, he is averaging 9.69 strikeouts and 2.23 walks.

Twins Offense Breakdown

minnesota twins

Carlos Santana comes into the game as the Twins’ leader in home runs, with 22, and is also the team’s top run producer, with 70 RBIs. However, he is batting just .237 this season. Willi Castro is batting just one point higher than Santana at .247, and he has 12 homers and 60 RBIs. Castro is also 2nd on the team in RBIs.

Over his last six games, Byron Buxton has gone 9/26, including one home run and three RBIs. This has pushed his season average up to .247. Ryan Jeffers is 2nd on the Twins in homers and RBIs, but he has just one hit in his last five games.

 

Orioles vs Twins Prediction

 

Our predicted final score for this Twins vs. Orioles matchup is 6-5 in favor of the Twins. However, with the Twins at -169 on the money line, we are recommending taking the over at 7.5 runs. At -111, we see this as a great value, as we have the Twins winning by a single run, and there is some nice value on the over/under line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Bailey Ober is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is fifth best among today’s starters. As for Albert Suarez, we have him finishing with seven K’s as well, which is the sixth best among starters.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.