Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Orioles vs Washington Nationals Prediction 5/7/2024

The Baltimore Orioles (23-11) travel to face off against the Washington Nationals (17-17) on Tuesday, May 7th. This game will be played at Nationals Park in Washington and televised on MASN. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. First pitch is set for 6:45 ET.

Orioles vs Nationals

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The Orioles’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Reds, closing out their series with an 11-1 win. After allowing three runs to the Reds in the top of the first, the Orioles responded with three runs of their own. Baltimore went on to add another three runs in the 3rd inning and closed things out with a 5-run 9th.

Dean Kremer put together a good start for the Orioles, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out six. Anthony Santander was hot at the plate, going 3/4 with a homer and five RBIs.

Baltimore is on the road today to take on the Nationals, and they lead the AL East with a record of 23-11. The Orioles hold a one-game lead over the Yankees for the division lead. So far, they have been really good vs. other AL East teams, going 6-1 in the division.

The Orioles have won four straight games, and they closed out their series vs. the Reds with three straight wins. This season, the Orioles have been really good as the favorite, going 16-10, and they are 7-1 as the underdog. On the road, they have won four straight games, and their overall series record is 8-3 this year.

When it comes to betting the run line with the Orioles, it’s been a profitable venture. They are 21-13 overall, and 10-5 on the road. They are also 7-1 as an underdog. Their average run differential is +1.6, and they have a run differential of +2.0 on the road. In their wins, they are winning by an average of 4.0 runs per game.

The Orioles have played 11 games with an over/under line higher than 8.5 runs, going 8-6 in those games. Their combined run average for the season is 9.0 runs per game, and their over/under record is 17-14 overall. Their games have averaged 8 runs per game, and 32.4% of their games have had an over/under line set at 8.5 runs or higher.

Corbin Burnes Gets The Start For The Orioles

Through seven starts, Corbin Burnes has a record of 3-1 and an ERA of 2.61. He has made four quality starts this season and is coming off a rough outing in which he gave up two earned runs in six innings of work. In that outing, he gave up four hits, one walk, and one home run. Looking back over his last four outings, Burnes has given up at least one homer in three of those starts. The right-hander has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 2-0 and an ERA of 3.03 compared to 1-1 with a 2.56 ERA at home.

Orioles Offense Breakdown

Not only are the Orioles the top home run hitting team in the league, but they are also 2nd in the league in runs scored at 5.3 runs per game. This is being driven by their league-leading team isolated power mark of .200. As a team, they are batting .251, which is the 6th best mark in the league. Baltimore also comes into the game with the 2nd best slugging percentage and OPS in the league.

Adley Rutschman has been on a tear of late for the Orioles, going 7/21 in his last five games with a home run and four RBIs. For the season, he is batting .324 with five homers and 22 RBIs. Gunnar Henderson is also a big power threat in the lineup, as he is 2nd in the league with 10 homers and is 8th in the league with 24 RBIs.

Led by a big game by Luis Garcia at the plate, the Nationals are coming off a big 11-8 win over the Blue Jays to close out their series. Garcia went 4/4 with four RBIs and a homer. The Nationals really broke things open with an eight-run 2nd inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Nationals were the slight underdog at -116.

MacKenzie Gore got the start for the Nationals, going three innings and giving up two runs on six hits. He only had four strikeouts in the outing and took the loss.

Washington is at an even 17-17 overall heading into today’s matchup vs. the Orioles, and they are seven games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Nationals take on the Orioles at home today, where they are 6-9 this year. On the road, the Nationals have gone 11-8.

The Nationals have an NL East division record of 5-2, and they won their most recent series vs. the Blue Jays. Looking at how they have fared as the underdog, the Nationals are 15-16 compared to 2-1 as the favorite. Washington’s overall series record is 5-6 heading into today’s series opener.

Washington has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 21-13 overall. They have been particularly good on the run line on the road, going 14-5. They have been a slight underdog in most games, and they have been profitable in that role, going 19-12 on the run line. Their average run differential in wins is +3.1, while it is -3.7 in losses.

The over has been hitting in the last three games for the Nationals, and their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 16-17 on the season, and the average over/under line for their games is 9 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 7-6. So far this season, 29.4% of their games have had a higher over/under line than 8.5 runs, and 32.4% have had a lower line.

Trevor Williams Gets The Start For The Nationals

Trevor Williams gets the start for the Nationals today and is facing the Orioles at home. He has made six starts this year and has a record of 3-0 with a 2.27 ERA. Williams has made one quality start this year and is coming off a game in which he didn’t allow a run. In that outing vs. the Rangers, he went five innings and gave up four hits and four walks. Williams’ ERA at home is 2.44 compared to 2.17 on the road. Per nine innings, he is averaging 6.25 strikeouts and 3.41 walks.

Nationals Offense Breakdown

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Washington’s offense comes into the game averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 18th in the league. They have been slightly better on the road, averaging 4.4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .233 and are 12th in the league in home runs. For the season, they have been good at avoiding strikeouts but are just 14th in terms of drawing walks.

Luis Garcia Jr. comes into the game with a team-best batting average of .337, and he has gone 10/24 in his last seven games. CJ Abrams and Nick Senzel have also been swinging the bat well of late, with Abrams hitting .367 over his last nine games and Senzel batting .270 with three homers in this stretch.

Orioles vs Nationals Prediction

With the Nationals at home and a money line payout of +173, we see this as a great value pick. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Nationals, and with the payout, we would recommend locking in a bet on the Nationals to win straight up.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Corbin Burnes’ strikeout total at six, which has him just outside of the top 10 among starters. As for Trevor Williams, we have him finishing with five strikeouts, which has him in the middle of the pack.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.