Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 6/11/2024

The Philadelphia Phillies (45-20) travel to face off against the Boston Red Sox (33-33) on Tuesday, June 11th. This game will be played at Fenway Park in Boston and televised on NSPPH. The Red Sox are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Phillies are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Mets. First pitch is set for 6:10 CT.

Phillies vs Red Sox

philadelphia phillies nba

The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Mets with a 6-5 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 9th inning before the Mets scored three runs in the top of the 9th. Philadelphia was the -144 favorite at home going into the game.

Taijuan Walker was excellent for the Phillies, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just two runs on two hits. He only had six strikeouts in the outing and issued just one walk. However, the Phillies bullpen couldn’t close things out, and José Alvarado took the loss. David Dahl also had a big game, going 1/1 with a homer and three RBIs.

Philadelphia is 45-20 overall, good for a nine-game lead over the Braves for the NL East lead. The Phillies will be on the road for their game vs. the Red Sox today. So far, they have been good at home, going 27-10, and they are 18-10 on the road.

The Phillies have been really good in night games this year, going 30-10, and they are 40-16 as the favorite. As for how they have done as the road favorite, they are 14-8 this year. Philadelphia lost their most recent game vs. the Mets, but they are 7-3 over their last 10 games.

The Phillies are 16-12 against the run line on the road this season, and they have covered in two straight games. They are 31-25 against the run line as the favorite and 5-4 as the underdog. Their average run margin in all games is +1.7 runs per game, but it jumps to +3.7 in their wins and drops to -3.0 in their losses.

The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road today against the Boston Red Sox. The O/U line for this game is set at 8 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is 8.6 runs. Overall, the Phillies have an O/U record of 27-34 this season. When the O/U line has been set at 8 runs, the Phillies have gone 11-7. So far this season, 24 of their games have had O/U lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 36.9% of their games. Their current under streak is at 6 games.

Zack Wheeler Gets The Start For The Phillies

Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made 13 starts this season and has a record of 7-3 with a 2.23 ERA. Wheeler’s WHIP for the season is currently .97. In his last outing, he gave up just one earned run in seven innings of work, picking up the win against the Brewers. Wheeler has been pitching well recently, as he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last four outings. Opponents are batting .174 off Wheeler this season.

Phillies Offense Breakdown

Philadelphia’s offense has been one of the best in the league this season, as they are 2nd in the MLB in runs per game at 5.1. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Overall, they are 4th in team batting average and have the 6th most home runs in the league. The Phillies are also one of the best teams in terms of avoiding strikeouts and are 3rd in the league in walks.

Over his last 10 games, Nick Castellanos has gone 12/40 (.300) with three homers and seven RBIs. This has helped him move into a tie with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber for the team lead in home runs. Castellanos also has the Phillies’ longest active hitting streak at four games.

The Red Sox’s most recent game was a 6-4 win over the White Sox to close out their series. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -145. It was a big 4th inning for the Red Sox, as they scored three runs in the inning to take the lead. Boston’s offense was carried by David Hamilton, who went 2/5 with a homer and two RBIs.

Zack Kelly got the start for the Red Sox, going only two innings. He didn’t give up a run, but he also issued two walks and hit a batter. Kenley Jansen got the win out of the bullpen, and Cam Booser picked up the save.

Boston is at an even 33-33 overall and trails the Yankees by 13 games in the AL East. So far, they are just 5-8 in divisional games. The Red Sox will host the Phillies today, and they are 14-18 at home this year.

On the road, Boston has gone 19-15 this year. As the underdog, the Red Sox have dropped three straight, and they are 14-19 as the underdog overall. Boston’s series record is 8-9-4 this year, and they split their most recent series vs. the White Sox.

The Red Sox are 30-36 against the run line this season, including a 10-22 mark at home. They have been outscored by an average of 0.4 runs per game at Fenway Park, compared to a 1.3-run scoring margin on the road. Boston has failed to cover the run line in three straight games as the favorite, going 12-21 overall in that spot.

The Boston Red Sox have an over/under record of 28-33 this season, with an average line of 8 runs per game. When the line is set at 8 runs, the Red Sox have gone 5-4-2. In games with over/under lines of 8 runs, Boston’s combined run average is 8.5 runs per game. So far this season, 57.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 or higher.

Kutter Crawford Gets The Start For The Red Sox

Boston is sending Kutter Crawford to the mound today vs. the Phillies, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Braves. In that start, he gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings of work. Crawford took the loss in that outing. Overall, he has made 13 starts and has a record of 2-5 with a 3.51 ERA. Looking at his home/away splits, Crawford has an ERA of 4.5 at home compared to 2.59 on the road. Opposing batters are hitting .227 this season off Crawford.

Red Sox Offense Breakdown

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Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .247, which is 7th in the MLB, and are also near the top of the league in slugging percentage and isolated power. Boston’s offense is also one of the best at avoiding strikeouts.

Rafael Devers has been the Red Sox’s top power threat this season, as his 13 home runs are the best on the team and 9th in the league. He is also 2nd on the team with 32 RBIs and comes into the game with a batting average of .284. Over his last four games, Devers has gone 4/13 with two homers. Jarren Duran has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 7/22 with two homers over his last five games. Duran’s five homers are 3rd on the team, and he is batting .263 for the season.

Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction

Our pick for today’s Phillies vs. Red Sox matchup is to take the Red Sox on the money line, with the payout sitting at +143. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Red Sox, and at +143, there is a good amount of value in this bet.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Kutter Crawford going five innings and finishing with five strikeouts. As for Zack Wheeler, we have him finishing with six strikeouts over his five innings of work.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.