Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 7/2/2024

The Philadelphia Phillies (55-29) travel to face off against the Chicago Cubs (39-46) on Tuesday, July 2nd. This game will be played at Wrigley Field in Chicago and televised on MARQ. The Phillies are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Cubs are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Brewers. First pitch is set for 7:05 CT.

Phillies vs. Cubs Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Phillies (+108)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 9.5 Runs
  • Phillies have scored an average of 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 games.
  • Phillies have won 10 out of their last 15 games, indicating strong recent form.
  • Phillies have a better away record (22-15) compared to the Cubs’ home record (22-18).
  • Phillies have outscored their opponents by 20 runs in the last 15 games (78 runs scored vs. 58 runs allowed).
  • Phillies have a league-leading record of 55-29, while the Cubs are struggling with a 39-46 record.

Phillies vs Cubs

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The Phillies Are Coming Off A Win

The Phillies’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Marlins, closing out their series with a 7-6 win. After allowing one run to the Marlins in the top of the first, the Phillies responded with two runs of their own. Philadelphia went on to add another two runs in the 2nd inning.

Ranger Suárez got the start for the Phillies, going 4 2/3 innings, and took the loss. He really struggled on the mound, giving up six earned runs on nine hits and issuing two walks. Alec Bohm had only two hits, but one of them was a home run, and Nick Castellanos had a big day at thejson, going 4/5 with three RBIs.

Philadelphia has been dominant as the favorite this season, posting a 49-23 record. Their overall series record is 17-7-5, and they are 14-8 against NL East teams. The Phillies are 22-15 on the road and have a run line record of 20-17 away from home.

Today’s O/U line of 9.5 runs is higher than their season average of 8.6 runs per game. When the O/U line has been set at 9.5 runs, the Phillies have gone 2-5, with only 4.8% of their games having O/U lines of 9.5 or higher.

Michael Mercado Gets The Start For The Phillies

Michael Mercado is making his first start of the season for the Phillies, coming off a one-inning relief appearance against the Tigers. In that outing, he struck out one batter and gave up just one hit, but did not figure into the decision.

Phillies Offense Breakdown

As a team, the Phillies are 4th in the league in scoring at 5 runs per game. They have been even better at home this season, leading the league with an average of 5.3 runs per game. Philadelphia is also one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, coming into the game with 99 homers (5th). The Phillies are also near the top of the league in terms of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Over the past seven games, Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper have both hit two home runs. Harper is batting .389 in his last four games, while Bohm has gone 7/28 (.250) in his last seven games. Harper’s 20 homers are 6th in the league, and Bohm is 3rd in the league with 68 RBIs.

The Cubs Took The Last Game Of This Series

The Cubs will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Brewers with a 7-1 loss. Chicago was the +165 underdog on the road going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Cubs, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Brewers scored seven times in the 4th.

Kyle Hendricks took the loss for the Cubs, going only 3 2/3 innings and giving up seven earned runs on seven hits. Nico Hoerner had only one hit, but it was a home run, and the Cubs’ offense scored their only run in the 1st inning.

Chicago has struggled recently, losing their last three series and going 3-7 in their last 10 games. They are currently 11 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central with a 39-46 overall record, placing them 5th in the division.

Against the run line, the Cubs are 29-16 as underdogs, but their overall run line record is 40-45 with a -0.4 average run margin. Their games have averaged 8.5 runs per game this season, with an over/under record of 36-45.

Hayden Wesneski Gets The Start For The Cubs

Chicago is sending right-hander Hayden Wesneski to the mound today vs. the Phillies. He has made 21 appearances this year and has a record of 2-4 with a 3.60 ERA. Wesneski has made two quality starts this year and is averaging 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Overall, he has allowed eight home runs and is coming off an outing in which he gave up three earned runs in four innings of work. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Wesneski has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.

Cubs Offense Breakdown

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Over his last nine games, Christopher Morel has gone just 6/30 (.200) with two homers, but he has driven in four runs over that stretch. For the season, Morel is batting just .198, but his 15 homers are 1st on the team and 11th in the league. Ian Happ has also struggled of late, batting just .179 in his last nine games, but he does have 11 homers, which is 2nd on the team and 15th in the MLB.

As a team, the Cubs are batting just .228 and are averaging 4.1 runs per game. This is 21st in the league. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per contest. So far, they have been a below-average home run hitting team and are also near the bottom of the league in terms of slugging percentage.

Phillies vs Cubs Prediction

We like the Phillies to pick up a win on the road against the Cubs. You could take them on the money line at +108, as our predicted final score is 6-4 in favor of the Phillies.

Another reason we like the Phillies on the money line is that there are a lot of pitchers projected to finish with more strikeouts than the Cubs starter, Hayden Wesneski. We have Wesneski finishing with four strikeouts, which would have him finishing with the seventh-fewest among starters today.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.