Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction 4/28/2024

The Philadelphia Phillies (18-10) travel to face off against the San Diego Padres (14-16) on Sunday, April 28th. This game will be played at PETCO Park in San Diego and televised on None. The Phillies are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Padres are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Phillies. First pitch is set for 4:10 ET.

Phillies vs Padres

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Thanks to a three-run 5th inning for the Phillies’ offense, they cruised to a 5-1 win over the Padres in the most recent game of this series. Heading into the game, the Phillies were at -104 on the money line.

The starting pitching matchup for this game featured Ranger Suarez for the Phillies, and he went eight innings while giving up just one run and picked up a win. Dylan Cease got the start for the Padres, going six innings and giving up five earned runs.

At the plate, Alec Bohm and Trea Turner each had two hits and combined to score three runs for the Phillies. Eguy Rosario hit the game’s only home run for the Padres, going 1/3.

Philadelphia has won three straight games, and they are 18-10 overall this season. The Phillies will be on the road today vs. the Padres, and they trail the Braves by 1.5 games for the NL East lead. So far, they are 3-3 in divisional matchups.

The Phillies have an overall series record of 4-2-2 this season, and they have won three straight games as the road underdog. This year, they are 8-4 on the road compared to 10-6 at home. Philadelphia has been good as the favorite this season, putting together a mark of 15-7.

Philadelphia has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 14-14 overall. They have been even better on the run line on the road, going 7-5. They have covered the run line in three straight road games and have an average run margin of 1.5 on the road this season.

When the Phillies play, the over/under line is set at an average of 8 runs per game. However, in their last 10 games, the average combined run total has been 8.2. The Phillies have gone over the line in 11 of their 27 games this season, and their over/under record is 11-16. When the over/under line is set at 8.5, they have gone over just once in seven games. Overall, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs in just 10.7% of their games this season.

Taijuan Walker Gets The Start For The Phillies

Taijuan Walker is coming off a season in which he made 31 starts and finished with a record of 15-6. His ERA for the season was 4.38, and he finished with 11 quality starts. Last season, Walker faced the Padres twice and went 2-0 with an ERA of 2.25. For the season, he allowed 20 home runs and finished with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.9. Overall, Walker’s WHIP for the season was 1.31, and his OPS allowed was .700.

Phillies Offense Breakdown

Philadelphia comes into the game with the league’s 3rd best home run total and are also one of the league’s best hitting teams, with a team batting average of .253. As a team, they are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. The Phillies have been even better at home, averaging 4.8 runs per game.

Over his last nine games, Alec Bohm has been on fire for the Phillies, going 20/37 (.541) with three home runs and 15 RBIs. Bohm’s 26 RBIs for the season is the 2nd best mark in the league. Bohm’s 11 game hitting streak is the longest on the team. Bohm’s hot stretch has helped him move his season average to .354, which is the 2nd best mark on the team.

San Diego is looking to snap their three-game losing streak today as they take on the Phillies. The Padres dropped the final two games of their series vs. the Rockies and have dropped the first two games of this series vs. the Phillies. Currently, they are 3rd in the NL West, 4.5 games behind the Dodgers for the division lead.

At 14-16, the Padres have an even 8-8 record in divisional games this year. So far, they are just 6-10 at home compared to 8-6 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 9-8 and 5-8 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Padres are 4-4-2 this year.

San Diego has been a run line bettor’s dream on the road, going 11-3 against the run line. They have been a different story at home, however, going just 4-12 against the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.4, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.1.

When the Padres play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. Their games have averaged 9.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 15-14. Their games have gone over the 8.5 run line in 6 of 10 games this season. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs this season.

Michael King Gets The Start For The Padres

Michael King gets the start for the Padres today and is coming off a rough outing against the Rockies. In that start, which came on April 23rd, he gave up four earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. King ended up taking the loss in the outing. Before that, he had given up at least two home runs in three straight starts. King’s ERA for the season is 4.11, along with a record of 2-2. Opponents are batting .215 off King this season. His WHIP is currently 1.44.

Padres Offense Breakdown

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San Diego comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, and they have been very good at avoiding strikeouts, as they are 12th in the league in this category. Overall, the Padres are 10th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. One of the reasons they have been so good offensively is that they are batting .253 as a team, which is the 6th best mark in the league.

Jurickson Profar has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/21 in his last six games with four runs and five RBIs. He is also on a four-game hitting streak. Profar’s 18 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and his three homers are 3rd on the team. Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. are also near the top of the Padres’ home run leaderboard, with one and six homers, respectively.


Phillies vs Padres Prediction


Our prediction for today’s Phillies vs. Padres game is that the Padres will pick up a 5-4 win at home. Given that they are at -132 on the money line, this is the bet we recommend taking.

Looking at some of the starters, we have Michael King finishing with five strikeouts, which is good for 10th among starters. As for Taijuan Walker, he is projected to finish with just four strikeouts, which is fourth worst.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.