The Pittsburgh Pirates (18-23) travel to face off against the Milwaukee Brewers (24-16) on Monday, May 13th. This game will be played at American Family Field in Milwaukee and televised on BSWI. Both the Pirates and Brewers are looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. First pitch is set for 7:40 ET.
Pirates vs Brewers
Pittsburgh is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 5-4 loss to the Cubs, Bailey Falter was excellent on the mound, allowing just two runs while pitching six innings. They also got a big offensive performance from Connor Joe, going 2/4 with a homer and two RBIs.
Aroldis Chapman took the loss out of the bullpen for the Pirates, as Pittsburgh allowed three runs in the top of the 10th to blow their lead. Heading into this game, the Pirates were the slight favorite at -102 at home.
Pittsburgh is 18-23 overall as they open their series on the road vs. the Brewers. The Pirates are 6.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central and are 3-4 in divisional games this year. The Pirates lost two straight games to close out their series vs. the Cubs.
As the road underdog, the Pirates are 8-7 this season, which is much better than their 6-12 mark as the favorite. Pittsburgh is just below .500 at 9-11 on the road compared to 9-12 at home. So far, they have gone 4-6 as they have played in 10 one-run games.
Despite being under .500 on the season, the Pirates have been a profitable team to back on the run line. They are 21-20 on the run line overall and have been especially good on the run line as an underdog, going 16-7. They have been a poor bet as a favorite, going just 5-13 on the run line. Their average run differential in wins is +2.6, while it drops to -3.2 in losses.
The Pirates have had a combined run average of 8.0 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 18-22. The over/under line for today’s game against the Brewers is set at 8 runs. In games with an over/under line of 8 runs, the Pirates have a record of 4-6. So far this season, 41.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs.
Mitch Keller Gets The Start For The Pirates
Mitch Keller will be looking to build off his last outing, where he pitched a complete game. Against the Angels on May 6th, he gave up just one earned run, got the win, and finished with five strikeouts. Keller’s record for the season is 3-3, and he has an ERA of 4.41. This year, opponents are batting .253 off the right-hander. Keller has made eight starts, three of which were quality starts, and his ERA at home is 4.30 compared to 5.27 on the road.
Pirates Offense Breakdown
Oneil Cruz and Connor Joe have been two of the Pirates’ best hitters this season, with Cruz batting .265 and Joe leading the team with a .292 batting average. Joe’s 20 RBIs are also the best mark on the team, and he has two homers in his last four games while going 6/16. Cruz has also been hot of late, going 7/16 in his last four games with two homers and five RBIs. Cruz is also on a six-game hitting streak.
As a team, the Pirates are 28th in scoring at just 3.7 runs per game. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and have a collective batting average of just .222. However, they do come into the game with a good walk rate and have been good at avoiding strikeouts.
The Brewers will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cardinals with a 4-3 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 9th inning before the Cardinals scored three runs in the top of the 9th. Milwaukee was the -154 favorite at home going into the game.
Bryse Wilson put together a good start for the Brewers, going four innings and giving up just two earned runs, and striking out five. However, the Brewers’s bullpen couldnjson’t close things out, and Elvis Peguero took the loss out of the bullpen. The Brewers also wasted a big game from Christian Yelich, who went 2/3 with a run scored.
Milwaukee will host the Pirates with an overall record of 24-16, putting them in 1st place in the NL Central. Currently, they hold a half-game lead over the Cubs for the division lead. The Brewers went 3-1 in their series vs. the Cardinals, and they are 5-5 across their last 10 games.
So far, the Brewers have gone 11-6 against other teams in the NL Central. At home, they are 10-8 this year and have been really good on the road at 14-8. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 7-4-2 this year.
When the Brewers win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game, but when they lose, it’s by an average of 3.3 runs per game. They have a run line record of 21-19 on the season, with a 7-11 mark at home and a 14-8 record on the road. As the favorite, they are just 6-12 on the run line, while they are 15-7 as the underdog.
Today’s over/under line of 8 runs for the Brewers-Pirates game is right in line with Milwaukee’s season average. The Brewers have played 40 games this season, and the over/under line has been set at 8 runs or higher in 25 of them (62.5%). Their games have averaged 9.3 runs per game, and their over/under record is 24-16. In the 12 games with an over/under line set at 8 runs, the over has gone 0-3.
Colin Rea Gets The Start For The Brewers
Milwaukee is sending right-hander Colin Rea to the mound today vs. the Pirates. Rea has made seven starts this year and has a record of 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA. He has made two quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up one home run. Rea’s ERA at home is 3.0, compared to 3.57 on the road. Opponents are batting .237 off Rea this season.
Brewers Offense Breakdown
William Contreras has been on a tear for the Brewers, hitting .346 for the season and .351 over his last 10 games. He is also 2nd on the team with 30 RBIs and is currently on a six-game hitting streak. Rhys Hoskins and Willy Adames are also among the league leaders in home runs, with Hoskins leading the Brewers with nine homers and Adames 2nd on the team with seven.
As a team, the Brewers are 4th in scoring at 5.1 runs per game, and they have been even better on the road, also averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top power-hitting teams, and they are also batting a collective .254.
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction
Our prediction for today’s Pirates vs. Brewers game is to take the Brewers on the money line at -139. We actually have this game ending with a final score of 5.1 to 5 in favor of the Brewers, giving us a little bit of value on the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Mitch Keller finishing with seven strikeouts, which is the highest projection among all starters today. As for Colin Rea, we have him finishing with five strikeouts, which puts him in the middle of the pack.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:May 13, 2024 Brewers, Pirates