Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction 8/12/2024

The Pittsburgh Pirates (56-61) travel to face off against the San Diego Padres (66-53) on Monday, August 12th. This game will be played at PETCO Park in San Diego and televised on None. Both the Pirates and Padres are looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. First pitch is set for 8:40 CT.

Pirates vs. Padres Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Padres (-162)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 8 Runs
  • The Padres have won 10 of their last 15 games, showing strong recent form.
  • In the last 15 games, the Padres have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game, indicating a potent offense.
  • The Padres have won 5 out of their last 6 home games, demonstrating a strong home-field advantage.
  • In their last series against the Pirates, the Padres won all three games, showcasing a favorable head-to-head matchup.
  • The Padres have a league rank of 5th in the NL West, while the Pirates are ranked 12th in the NL Central, indicating a stronger overall team performance.

Pirates vs Padres

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The Padres Took The Last Game Of This Series

Pittsburgh is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 6-5 loss to the Dodgers, Andrew McCutchen went 2/5 with two homers and four RBIs. The Pirates also got a good start from Bailey Falter, going four innings and giving up just two runs on seven hits. However, they took him out after four innings of work.

David Bednar took the loss out of the bullpen for the Pirates, as Pittsburgh allowed two runs in the bottom of the 10th to lose the game. Heading into this road game, the Pirates were at +221 on the money line.

After losing eight straight games as the underdog, the Pirates are 32-40 in that role this season. Overall, they are 66-51 against the run line, with a -0.2 average run margin per game. In games with totals of 8 or higher, Pittsburgh has a 56-60 over/under record.

Pittsburgh’s overall record is 56-61, placing them 5th in the NL Central, 11 games behind the Brewers. They have lost three consecutive series and are currently on an eight-game losing streak as they face the Padres on the road today.

Marco Gonzales Gets The Start For The Pirates

Marco Gonzales gets the start for the Pirates today as he faces the Padres on the road. So far this season, he has made seven starts and has a record of 1-1 with an ERA of 4.54. Gonzales’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.60. Looking back at his last outing, Gonzales finished with a no-decision after giving up five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. He has made two quality starts this year and is averaging 6.15 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .309 off Gonzales this year.

Pirates Offense Breakdown

So far this season, the Pirates have been a below-average offensive team, averaging 4.2 runs per game (21st in the league). They have been even worse in terms of power, as their 117 home runs is 21st in the league. As a team, they are batting just .235, which is also 21st in the MLB.

Over his last five games, Andrew McCutchen has gone 6/16 with three homers and seven RBIs. This has pushed his season average to .287. Bryan Reynolds has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/33 in his last eight games. Reynolds is the Pirates’ leading run producer, with 69 RBIs, and his 19 homers is 13th in the league.

The Padres Took The Last Game Of This Series

The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Marlins with a 7-6 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Marlins scored two runs in the bottom of the 7th. San Diego was the -207 favorite on the money line going into the game.

Dylan Cease had a rough outing, giving up six earned runs on six hits and issuing two walks. The Padres also wasted a big game from Donovan Solano, who went 3/3 with a homer and two RBIs.

San Diego has been a profitable run line team this season, with a 62-57 record. They have been especially good on the road, going 40-20 on the run line. As favorites, the Padres are 40-31 straight up, but as underdogs, they have a 33-15 run line record.

The Padres are currently on a seven-series winning streak and have an overall series record of 24-13-3. They have won two straight games and hold a 66-53 record, sitting 3rd in the NL West, 3.5 games behind the Dodgers.

Joe Musgrove Gets The Start For The Padres

Right-hander Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Padres today as he faces off against the Pirates. Musgrove has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 3-4 with a 5.66 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Musgrove has a WHIP of 1.48 and has issued just 2.74 walks per nine innings compared to 8.03 strikeouts. Musgrove has turned in four quality starts this year, and he most recently faced the Yankees, where he went 5 1/3 innings, giving up one earned run on six hits. He finished with a no-decision in that outing.

Padres Offense Breakdown

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San Diego comes into the game as the top-hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .266. They are also near the top of the league in home runs and have been very good at avoiding strikeouts. Overall, the Padres are averaging 4.8 runs per game, but that number jumps to 5.1 when they are on the road. One of the things they will be looking to improve on is their walk rate, as they are currently 23rd in the league in that category.

Jurickson Profar has been one of the best hitters in the league this season, as his 72 RBIs are 15th in the league, and his 19 homers are the best mark on the team and 13th in the MLB. Profar’s on-base percentage of .396 is also the best mark on the team. Over his last 10 games, Jackson Merrill has gone 13/36 with four homers and 11 RBIs. He has also scored 11 runs during that stretch.

Pirates vs Padres Prediction

Our prediction for today’s Pirates vs. Padres game is to take the Padres to pick up the win at home. However, with the money line sitting at -162, we actually like the over, with the line being set at 8 runs.

Looking at today’s starters, Joe Musgrove is projected to have a solid outing, with our predictions having him finishing with six strikeouts. As for Marco Gonzales, he is actually projected to finish with the fewest strikeouts among today’s starters.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.