Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction 4/17/2024

The Pittsburgh Pirates (11-7) travel to face off against the New York Mets (9-8) on Wednesday, April 17th. This game will be played at Citi Field in New York and televised on SN PT. The Mets are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Pirates are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Pirates. First pitch is set for 1:10 ET.

Pirates vs Mets

pittsburgh pirates nba

New York picked up a 3-1 win over the Pirates in the most recent game of this series. The Mets offense only had four hits in the game but took advantage of some Pirates miscues, as they scored three unearned runs. Heading into the game, the Mets were at -110 on the money line.

Pittsburgh wasted a good outing from Jared Jones, as he gave up just one hit and no earned runs in five innings of work for the Pirates. Luis L. Ortiz took the loss. Reed Garrett got the win out of the bullpen for the Mets as Jose Quintana went five innings, giving up one earned run.

Offensively, the Mets were led by Pete Alonso, who homered and went 2/4 at the plate. Alonso scored all three of the Mets’ runs. As for the Pirates, they scored their only run in the 5th inning.

The Pirates come into today’s game in a two-game losing streak, as they dropped the final two games of their series with the Mets. Currently, the Pirates are in a two-way tie with the Brewers for the NL Central division lead. So far, they have yet to play a game against a division opponent.

On the road, the Pirates have an 8-5 record this season compared to 3-2 at home. Pittsburgh has yet to win a series this year, as their overall series record is 3-0-2. When coming in as the underdog, the Pirates have gone 9-5 this season.

When the Pirates win, they usually cover the run line, as their average run margin in victories is +3.3. They are 12-6 overall vs. the run line, including 9-4 on the road. However, they have failed to cover in their last two road games and are just 2-2 vs. the run line as the favorite.

So far this season, the Pittsburgh Pirates have played 18 games with an average combined run total of 9.1 runs per game. Their over/under record is 10-8, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. In games where the line has been set at 8 runs, the over/under record is 2-1. Overall, 13 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 72.2% of their games. Only 2 games have had lower over/under lines than 8 runs, which is just 11.1% of their games.

Bailey Falter Gets The Start For The Pirates

Bailey Falter will be making his 4th start of the season for the Pirates, and it will be on the road against the Mets. He is coming off a win in his last outing, where he went 5 innings and gave up just 1 earned run. He has 8 strikeouts in 11 innings of work so far this season.

Pirates Offense Breakdown

For the Pirates, we have Oneil Cruz projected to have the most hits on the team and the 4th most in the league today. Cruz also has the best odds to hit a home run on the team and the 3rd best odds in the league. Ke’Bryan Hayes is 4th on the team in terms of total hits, but his odds to hit a home run are 10th best in the league. Bryan Reynolds is 2nd on the team in total hits, and his odds to hit a home run are 6th in the league today.

With an overall record of 9-8, the Mets are on a three-game winning streak, winning the final three games of their series with the Royals and Pirates. In the NL East, they are 2.5 games behind the Braves and are in 3rd place heading into today’s game.

At home, the Mets are 5-6 compared to 4-2 on the road. New York has won two straight games as the favorite and is 5-6 when favored this season. As the underdog, which they are today, the Mets are 4-2 this season.

When the Mets are the underdog, they are a great bet against the run line, going 5-1. They have also been a solid run line bet on the road, going 5-1. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.1, while it is -2.8 in losing games.

Today’s over/under line for the Mets’ game against the Pirates is set at 8 runs. The Mets have gone over the total in 8 of their 17 games this season, and the over/under line has been set at 8 runs for just one of their games. The Mets’ games have had an average combined run total of 8.8 runs per game this season.

Luis Severino Gets The Start For The Mets

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets at home against the Pirates. He has a win and a no-decision in his first two starts of the season. In his first start, he went 5 innings and gave up 1 earned run on 4 strikeouts. Severino’s second start was on the road against the Reds, where he went 5 innings and struck out 7 batters.

Mets Offense Breakdown

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For the Mets, we have Brandon Nimmo with the highest total hits projection on the team and the 19th highest in the league today. Pete Alonso is our top home run pick for the Mets and has the 6th highest home run projection in today’s league. Starling Marte is 2nd on the team in total hits and 4th in home run projections for the Mets.


Pirates vs Mets Prediction


We are predicting the Pirates to pick up a 5-4 road win over the Mets. Given that the Pirates are the underdogs in this one, you can get them at +118 on the money line, which is our recommended bet.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Luis Severino is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is fourth-best among today’s starters. As for Bailey Falter, he is projected to finish with five K’s, and the Pirates are projected to finish with nine as a team.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.