Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction 5/4/2024

The Seattle Mariners (17-15) travel to face off against the Houston Astros (12-20) on Saturday, May 4th. This game will be played at Minute Maid Park in Houston and televised on FOX. The Astros are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Mariners are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Astros. First pitch is set for 7:15 ET.

Mariners vs Astros

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Houston picked up a 5-3 win over the Mariners in the most recent game of this series. The Astros had a huge 7th inning, scoring four of their five runs. As for the Mariners, they scored two of their three runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Astros were favored at -118 on the money line.

Ronel Blanco started for the Astros and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued two walks. Josh Hader got the save.

George Kirby only went six innings for the Mariners but gave up just one earned run and struck out three. He finished with a good outing but took the loss. Gabe Speier struggled out of the bullpen, giving up three earned runs in just 0.2 innings of work.

Seattle is currently 17-15 overall, putting them in 1st place in the AL West heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Astros. The Mariners hold a half-game lead over the Rangers for the top spot in the division. The Mariners will try to bounce back today, having dropped two straight games.

The Mariners have gone 2-2 in divisional games so far this year, and they have won two straight series. This season, they are 11-8 at home compared to 6-7 on the road. So far, they have really struggled in day games, going 3-8 this season.

Seattle has been a solid bet on the run line this season, with a 15-17 mark overall. They have been especially good on the run line at home, going 9-10. They have a run line record of 6-7 on the road, and their average run differential in those games is +0.5 runs per game. Their average run differential in all games is +0.2 runs per game.

The Mariners have been on a remarkable under streak, with 10 straight games finishing below the over/under line. Their games have averaged 6.9 runs this season, and their over/under record is 7-23. Today’s line is set at 8 runs, and the Mariners have gone 1-4-1 in games with that line this season.

Logan Gilbert Gets The Start For The Mariners

Through six starts, Logan Gilbert has yet to take a loss, coming in with a record of 2-0 and an ERA of 2.02. Gilbert has made five quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t give up an earned run. In that April 23rd start vs. the Rangers, he went 6 2/3 innings, giving up just two hits. Gilbert has been impressive at home, with an ERA of 1.83 compared to 2.51 on the road. So far, he has allowed five home runs. Gilbert’s WHIP for the season is .80.

Mariners Offense Breakdown

So far this season, the Mariners are averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. However, they have been a little better on the road, averaging 4.2 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .219, and their on-base percentage of .297 is also near the bottom of the league. Seattle is also one of the worst teams in terms of strikeouts, averaging 10 per game.

Julio Rodriguez has been one of the Mariners’ most consistent hitters this season, batting .270 with one home run. Mitch Haniger is the team’s top power threat, with four homers, but he is batting just .211. Jorge Polanco and Cal Raleigh are also near the top of the league in home runs, but both are batting under .210 for the season. Polanco comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak.

After winning the first two games of their series vs. the Mariners, the Astros are five games below .500 at 12-20. In the AL West, they are in 4th place and trail the Mariners by five games. So far, they have been good vs. other teams in the AL West, going 5-3 in divisional games.

At home, the Astros are 7-10 this season, and they are 5-10 on the road. As the favorite, Houston is 10-17 this year and 2-3 as the underdog. The Astros’ overall series record is 4-5-1, and they have won two straight series.

When the Astros win, they tend to do so by a wide margin, as their average run differential in victories is +5.0. However, they have been outscored by an average of -0.4 runs per game overall this season. Their run line record is 12-20, and they are 7-10 against the run line at home. They are 5-10 vs. the run line on the road, and they have covered the run line in two straight games and in two straight games as the favorite. They are 9-18 vs. the run line as the favorite and 3-2 as the underdog.

When the Astros play at home, the over/under line is usually set higher than 8 runs. In fact, in 90.6% of their games, the line has been set higher than 8 runs. The average over/under line for their games is 10 runs. So far this season, the Astros have an over/under record of 10-20, and their games have averaged a combined 9.6 runs per game.

Framber Valdez Gets The Start For The Astros

Framber Valdez is taking the mound for the Astros, and he will be making his first start at home this season. In his first start of the year, he went 7 2/3 innings and didn’t allow a run. He followed that up with a win against the Rockies, where he went 5 innings and struck out 6.

Astros Offense Breakdown

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Jose Altuve has been on a tear of late for the Astros, going 11/34 in his last eight games with two homers and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .348 and is 2nd on the team with seven homers. Kyle Tucker has also been swinging a hot bat, as he is 8/29 in his last eight games, including three homers and four RBIs. Tucker’s eight homers are the best mark on the team and 3rd in the league.

As a team, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game and have been even better at home, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 2nd best hitting team, with a team batting average of .263. Houston’s offense is also the top home run hitting team in the league.

Mariners vs Astros Prediction

Our prediction for today’s Mariners vs. Astros matchup is to take the Astros on the money line at -143. We have the Astros winning this one by a final score of 6-5. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also consider taking the over, as the line is sitting at 8 runs.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Framber Valdez finishing with six strikeouts compared to Logan Gilbert with four. Valdez is also projected to finish with a higher ERA than Gilbert, but he has a better chance of picking up the win.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.