The Seattle Mariners (20-17) travel to face off against the Minnesota Twins (21-15) on Thursday, May 9th. This game will be played at Target Field in Minneapolis and televised on MLBN. The Twins are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Mariners are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Twins. First pitch is set for 1:10 ET.
Mariners vs Twins
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Twins vs Mariners series. Minnesota went into the matchup as slight favorites at -109 and squeaked out a 6-3 win. Both teams scored two runs in the first inning, and the Mariners could only muster one more run in the 4th inning. As for the Twins, they scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 5th and tacked on two insurance runs in the 8th.
Seattle’s offense actually outhit the Twins in the game 10 to 7. Mitch Garver and Julio Rodriguez each homered for the Mariners, while Willi Castro went deep for the Twins. Carlos Correa also had a two-run double for Minnesota’s offense.
Chris Paddack got the win for the Twins out of the bullpen, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up just one run. Jhoan Duran got the save. George Kirby had a rough outing for the Mariners, taking the loss after going five innings and giving up four earned runs.
Seattle is 20-17 overall this season, which has them 2nd in the AL West, one game behind the Rangers for the division lead. The Mariners have gone 4-2 in divisional games this year. As they are on the road today, the Mariners are 9-9 compared to an 11-8 mark at home.
The Mariners have won three straight games as the underdog, and they are 9-8 as the underdog overall. They are just above .500 at home, coming in with an 11-9 record. Seattle is 6-4-1 in series this year and has won three straight series on the road.
The Mariners have been a tough team to predict on the run line this season, as they are just 18-19 overall. However, they have been a much better bet as the underdog, going 10-7 against the run line in those games. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.2, while it is -3.0 in losses.
Seattle’s over/under record is 10-25 this season, and the average over/under line for their games has been 8 runs. In games with an over/under line of 6.5 runs, the over is 0-1. The Mariners’ games have averaged 7.1 runs per game this season, and 97.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s 6.5-run line. Their over streak is at 2 games, and their games have gone over the over/under line in 5 of their last 6 games.
Logan Gilbert Gets The Start For The Mariners
Seattle is sending right-hander Logan Gilbert to the mound today vs. the Twins. He has made six straight quality starts and has an overall record of 3-0. Gilbert’s ERA for the season is an impressive 1.69, along with a WHIP of .79. So far, he has allowed a total of five home runs. In his most recent outing, Gilbert went eight innings vs. the Astros, picking up the win and not allowing a run. He has been especially tough on the road, with a record of 2-0 and an ERA of 1.88.
Mariners Offense Breakdown
Cal Raleigh is the Mariners’ top power threat this season, as his nine home runs are 4th in the league and lead the team. However, he has really struggled at the plate of late, hitting just 4/24 in his last seven games. Julio Rodriguez has also struggled to put the ball over the fence this season, but he comes into the game with a solid batting average of .267.
As a team, the Mariners are batting just .223 this season and are averaging only 3.7 runs per contest. They have been even worse at home, averaging only 3.1 runs per game. Seattle’s lineup has been striking out at a high rate this season and comes into the game with the league’s worst strikeout rate.
Minnesota is 21-15 overall this season, and they are 12-7 against other teams in the AL Central, where they trail the Guardians by 2.5 games for the division lead. The Twins have taken two of the first three games in their series vs. the Mariners, and they have an overall series record of 5-4-2 this year.
At home, the Twins are 10-8 this year and have gone 11-7 on the road. So far, they have been good as the favorite, putting together a record of 17-7. As for their record as the underdog, it is just 4-8 this year. Minnesota has been playing well lately, going 8-2 over their last 10 games.
The Twins have been a solid run line team this season, going 19-17 overall. They have been better on the road, going 11-7 against the run line, compared to 8-10 at home. They have been a better run line team as the underdog, going 6-6, compared to 13-11 as the favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +3.4, while it’s -3.9 in losses.
Minnesota’s over/under record for the season is 18-17, and the average combined run total in their games is 8.9. The over/under line for today’s game is 6.5, and the over/under record for the season when the line is set at 6.5 is 1-0. The over has hit in two straight games for the Twins, and the average over/under line for their games this season is 8 runs.
Pablo López Gets The Start For The Twins
Pablo López has made three straight starts without a loss, coming away with the win in two of those outings. Most recently, he faced the Red Sox on May 4th and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, López is 3-2 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting .221 off the right-hander this year. López has made three quality starts this year and is averaging 10.75 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has 45 strikeouts compared to just six walks.
Twins Offense Breakdown
Minnesota’s offense has been one of the league’s best on the road this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game. Overall, they are 11th in the league at 4.7 runs per contest. The Twins have been a good power-hitting team this season, as their isolated power figure of .170 is the 3rd best mark in the league. As a team, they are batting .238, which is 13th in the league.
Ryan Jeffers and Edouard Julien are tied for the team lead with seven home runs apiece. Jeffers is batting .303 for the season and has gone 11/32 in his last nine games, with two homers and 11 RBIs. Willi Castro has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 14/38 in his last 10 games. Max Kepler is on a 10-game hitting streak and is batting .433 in his last nine games.
Mariners vs Twins Prediction
Our prediction for this Twins vs. Mariners matchup is that the Twins will pick up a 5-4 win at home. With the Twins being the favorite, we recommend taking them on the money line, where the payout is -130.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Pablo Lopez finishing with six strikeouts, which is good for fourth among starters. As for Logan Gilbert, his six-strikeout projection has him at third.
Offensively, we have the Mariners finishing with eight total strikeouts, which is the second-most in the league today. The Mariners are projected to finish with four home runs, which is fourth-best.
As for the Twins, they are projected to finish with eight strikeouts, and their home run projection has them finishing fifth in the league.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
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Last updated:May 9, 2024 Mariners, Twins