Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Prediction
PublishedSeptember 28, 2024,            Posted By: Maria Uebelhor
Last updated:September 28, 2024 ,

MLB Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 9/28/2024

The Tampa Bay Rays (79-81) travel to face off against the Boston Red Sox (80-80) on Saturday, September 28th. This game will be played at Fenway Park in Boston and televised on NESN. The Rays are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Red Sox are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Rays. First pitch is set for 3:10 CT.

Rays vs. Red Sox Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Red Sox (-122)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 8 Runs
  • The Red Sox have a recent home record of 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
  • In their last 15 games, the Red Sox have scored 5 or more runs in 7 games, indicating strong offensive performance.
  • The Red Sox have won 4 out of their last 6 home games against the Rays.
  • Boston’s offense has shown consistency, scoring an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last 15 games.
  • The Red Sox have a higher overall win percentage at home (37-42) compared to the Rays’ away win percentage (37-42).

Rays vs Red Sox

tampa bay rays nba

Tampa Bay picked up a 2-1 road win over the Red Sox in the most recent game of this series. The Rays offense only had five hits in the game but took advantage of their scoring opportunities, as they scored two runs in the 7th inning and didn’t score their first run until the 6th. Heading into the game, the Rays were at +103 on the money line.

Both starting pitchers for this game actually pitched well, as Taj Bradley went six innings for the Rays and gave up just three hits and no earned runs. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued one walk. Nick Pivetta also had a good outing for the Red Sox, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs on four hits.

The Rays got to Pivetta in the 7th inning, as he gave up two earned runs and was pulled from the game. As for the Red Sox, they scored their only run in the 7th and had a chance to tie or win the game in the 9th but went down quietly.

On the season, the Rays have a run line record of 83-77, including a 46-33 record on the road. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 59-33 as underdogs vs. the run line. Tampa Bay is 37-42 on the road this season and 79-81 overall, sitting in 4th place in the AL East, one game behind the Red Sox.

When the total has been set at 8 runs, the Rays have gone over in 17 games and under in 25 games. The under has hit in their last two games. The season average for their games is 7.8 runs per game, and they have gone over the total in 66 of their 151 games this year.

Shane Baz Gets The Start For The Rays

Tampa Bay is sending right-hander Shane Baz to the mound today vs. the Red Sox. He has made 13 starts this season and has a record of 3-3 with a 3.07 ERA. Baz’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.09, and opponents are batting .202 off him this year. In his 13 starts, Baz has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 7.61 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Baz finished with a no-decision vs. the Blue Jays, going six innings and giving up one earned run on four hits. He did give up a homer in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Rays Offense Breakdown

So far this season, the Rays offense has been one of the worst in the league, averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in most other offensive categories, including home runs, team batting average, and on-base percentage. One positive for the Rays is that they have done a good job of putting the ball in play, as their team strikeout rate is 25th in the league.

Yandy Diaz comes into the game with a team-high 65 RBIs and is batting .280. He has also gone deep 14 times this season. Christopher Morel and Brandon Lowe are tied for the team lead in homers, but Morel is batting just .194, and Lowe isn’t much better at .239. Over his last eight games, Jonathan Aranda has three home runs and is batting .269.

When favored, the Red Sox have struggled against the run line, going 28-49, but as underdogs, they are 48-35. Overall, they are 76-84 vs. the run line this season. Boston’s over/under record is 78-74, and games have averaged 9.3 runs per game.

Boston has won two straight series and is currently 3rd in the AL East, 13 games behind the Yankees. Their overall record is 80-80, and they have lost two consecutive games heading into today’s matchup against the Rays.

Kutter Crawford Gets The Start For The Red Sox

Kutter Crawford will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Twins. In that start, he went 7 2/3 innings and gave up just three earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Crawford has made 32 starts and has a record of 9-15. His ERA for the season is 4.17, along with a WHIP of 1.10. Opposing batters have a batting average of .219 vs. Crawford this season. Out of his 32 starts, he has 15 quality starts, and his ERA at home is 4.09 compared to 4.77 on the road.

Red Sox Offense Breakdown

boston red sox

For the season, the Red Sox are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been a good home run hitting team this season and have the league’s best team BABIP. Boston has also been one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts this season.

Jarren Duran is currently on a seven-game hitting streak and has gone 11/41 in his last 10 games. For the season, he is batting .286 with 21 home runs. Rafael Devers is also having a strong season, as he is batting .272 with 28 homers and a team-high 83 RBIs. Tyler O’Neill has a team-high 31 homers but is batting just .240.

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction

Our prediction for today’s Rays vs. Red Sox game is that the Red Sox will pick up a 5-4 win at home. With the Red Sox picking up the win, we recommend taking them on the money line, where the payout is -122.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Shane Baz is projected to finish with just four strikeouts, and we have him finishing with a 9.00 ERA. As for Kutter Crawford, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts and a 3.00 ERA.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.